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Technical Analysis: Oil, Daily: Overextended down-move searches for reaction

Posted on January 13, 2015 at 9:42 am GMT

The huge downward move in oil prices has surprised many market participants during the past few months. From 107 dollars a barrel in late June of 2014, crude oil has in the spate of a few months dropped almost 60%, below 45 dollars. The ferocious downmove has been attributed to oversupply and it is well known that oil production is not easy to suspend once the high fixed upstart costs are paid. Therefore, it may take months of low prices [..]

Asian Session – Yen returns most gains as risk assets stabilize

Posted on January 13, 2015 at 8:21 am GMT

Towards the end of today’s Asian session, the yen returned the significant gains it made earlier after risk appetite turned more positive. Dollar / yen made a near 1-month low of 117.73 earlier while euro / yen dipped below the key 140 level to 139.44. Dollar / yen and euro / yen were trading at 118.40 and 140.12 according to the latest market quotes. There were mixed news for the yen on fundamentals. On the one hand, Japan’s Economy Minister [..]

European Session – US dollar range-bound after nfp-induced correction

Posted on January 12, 2015 at 3:38 pm GMT

US dollar bulls initially recovered their stride after the temporary setback delivered by the contraction in average earnings contained in the US employment report. Apart from wages, other aspects of the report such as payrolls and the unemployment rate, indicated a strong labor market. The US dollar was volatile in the absence of news, as it strengthened to 1.1786 against the euro and 119.25 against the yen, only to reverse this course and the euro to recover to 1.1839 and [..]

Technical Analysis – Gold, Daily: positive start to New Year faces tests ahead

Posted on January 12, 2015 at 9:59 am GMT

Gold has had a positive start to 2015, after a flat 2014 during which the US dollar strengthened significantly and oil plunged by more than 50%. Gold closed 2014 at 1187 and was last trading at 1223 dollars per ounce. There are some barriers ahead for an even higher gold price. Immediately above is the 10-week high of 1238 and then the 4-month high of 1255. 1255 is also the level of the 200-day moving average; an indicator which many [..]

Asian Session – Profit-taking drives dollar lower after disappointing US wages

Posted on January 12, 2015 at 8:41 am GMT

The US dollar was under some pressure at the start of the week, on some follow-through selling after weaker-than-expected wage growth in December’s employment report released on Friday. Although nonfarm payrolls managed to beat expectations as well as the unemployment rate which came in lower-than-anticipated, average wages dipped 0.2% month-on-month instead of rising 0.2% as economists had forecasted. Analysts are divided over the implications of this for monetary policy, but some are supporting that slower wage growth – combined with [..]

European Session – Strong jobs data help dollar extend gains

Posted on January 9, 2015 at 3:18 pm GMT

The US dollar was higher following a strong December employment report out of the United States. Euro / dollar was pushed under 1.18 once more to trade as low as 1.1761 – within 8 pips of the 1.1753 9 ½ – year low registered the previous day. Dollar / yen climbed above 119 to as high as 119.75. Both euro / dollar and dollar / yen backed down from their lows and highs respectively as the report was not so strong [..]

Forex News – Week ahead: Inflation data next week for US, UK and Eurozone

Posted on January 9, 2015 at 1:49 pm GMT

The coming week will be relatively quiet in terms of important economic data, building up to the following week’s absolutely crucial risk events for the Eurozone; the ECB meeting and the Greek elections. Inflation data out of the UK and the US for December as well as final Eurozone consumer prices will likely prove to be the week’s highlight, combined with some speeches from Federal Reserve officials. The week will start off quietly on Monday, but then on Tuesday, UK [..]

Technical Analysis – GBPUSD daily: Latest pound breakdown could lead to reaction

Posted on January 9, 2015 at 9:25 am GMT

Since hitting a 6-year high of 1.7190 in mid-July of 2014, the pound has been dropping steadily versus the dollar. The pound’s losses accelerated during the New Year and it made a fresh 18-month low of 1.5033 on January 8. 1.50 remains a psychologically important level that the pound downtrend is eyeing. However, the recent ‘mini-crash’ of the pound (it has lost 5 ½ cents during a week or so) may cause a reaction. The RSI is in oversold territory [..]

Asian Session – Dollar soft versus yen as traders await US payrolls

Posted on January 9, 2015 at 8:52 am GMT

The dollar retreated somewhat versus the Japanese yen in an otherwise quiet Asian session as volumes were thin ahead of the US December employment report. The dollar dropped slightly to 119.41 versus the yen compared to levels around 119.65 following the close of New York trading the previous night. Dollar bulls took some fright after a speech by Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota, who set out some preconditions before the Fed starts to raise interest rates. Specifically, inflation should rise [..]

European Session – New lows for euro, pound but risk ‘on’ as ECB stimulus awaited

Posted on January 8, 2015 at 2:15 pm GMT

The dollar eased back against the yen but euro / dollar made new lows during today’s European session, as traders positioned themselves ahead of tomorrow’s crucial US employment report. After failing to break above the 120 level, dollar / yen headed back down to around 119.50. The pressure on the euro continued to mount, as the currency dropped to a new near-decade low of 1.1753 against the dollar. German industrial orders for November were much worse than expected at -2.4% [..]

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