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European Session – Euro rallies above 1.14 on Greek debt deal optimism

Posted on February 3, 2015 at 3:21 pm GMT

The euro rallied to break above the key 1.1400 level for the first time in over a week, rising on the back of optimism on Greece’s debt renegotiation with its creditors. Greece decided to back off from demanding a haircut on its debt and instead proposed a plan that included bond swaps – i.e. replacing some of the current debt with growth-linked bonds and perpetual bonds. There was a positive market reception to the new Greek government’s proposals which boosted markets [..]

Forex News – RBA cuts rates to 2.25%; Australian dollar sinks

Posted on February 3, 2015 at 2:04 pm GMT

The news that the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates by a quarter point was a surprise to most analysts, although the move had been widely rumored and speculated by the markets. The cut brought the Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) to 2.25% – an all-time low – and there was a high probability that the RBA would cut by an additional 25 basis points when it next meets in March. As recently as December, the RBA had hinted that [..]

Technical Analysis – AUDCHF resumes fall to target all time low

Posted on February 3, 2015 at 8:41 am GMT

AUDCHF resumed its fall today after the RBA rate cut and touched a low of 0.7062 by early European session trading. Resistance at 0.7290 proved difficult to break and the intraday bias is back on the downside. There is scope to target the all-time low of 0.6848. To the upside, a break of the recent resistance at 0.7290 would indicate a short-time bottoming. However, the long term outlook remains bearish as long as the market remains under the Ichimoku cloud [..]

Asian Session – RBA rate cut leads to aussie slide; fresh near-6 year low

Posted on February 3, 2015 at 8:16 am GMT

A surprise cut in Australian interest rates led the aussie to fresh lows against the US dollar as well as weakness versus other majors. The RBA reduced rates to 2.25% from 2.50%, as it said the economy was growing below trend. In addition, even following its recent drop, the Reserve Bank still saw the Australian dollar as overvalued on a fundamental basis. The move came as a surprise to the majority of analysts and this led to aggressive sales of [..]

European Session – Dollar weakens on weak US ISM manufacturing

Posted on February 2, 2015 at 3:42 pm GMT

The Swiss franc was one of the weakest performing currencies today amid speculation that the Swiss National Bank is intervening in the currency markets. There were some reports that the central bank wants to adopt an unofficial band between 1.05 and 1.10 for the EURCHF exchange rate. The euro rose to 1.0587, its highest since January 15 when the SNB removed the EURCHF peg. The dollar rose to 0.9344. francs. The single currency remains vulnerable as the market [..]

Forex News – US GDP for the fourth quarter underwhelms; keeps dollar bulls in check

Posted on February 2, 2015 at 2:01 pm GMT

The news that US GDP growth for the fourth quarter came in at a 2.6% annualized pace – less than what economists expected at 3% – was on balance slightly dollar negative. The previous quarter’s growth rate was much higher at 5%; although that level of growth was unsustainable. For the year as a whole, growth came in at 2.4%, a respectable performance and the best since 2010 – particularly given the surprise contraction of the first quarter due to [..]

Technical Analysis – AUDUSD stalls downtrend at 5 ½ year low of 0.7718

Posted on February 2, 2015 at 8:26 am GMT

AUDUSD is hovering at a 5 ½ year of 0.7718 hit on January 29. The pair paused it downtrend that begun from 0.9400. The market is now at oversold levels as shown by the RSI which is below 30. This suggests some consolidation in the near term. In the bigger picture, the bearish trend looks like it is still in progress. The pair will likely resume its downside momentum after breaking 0.7718 and has scope to target 0.7086. This is [..]

Asian Session – Dollar regains ground versus yen, euro awaits PMIs

Posted on February 2, 2015 at 7:39 am GMT

The dollar regained some ground after briefly dipping below the 117 level at 116.87. The dollar was last buying 117.66 yen in what was a volatile session. In yen-related data, Japanese manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.2 in January. Euro / dollar was more stable around the 1.13 level, as PMI numbers and developments in Greece were awaited. Chances of a deal between Greece and its creditors suffered a setback on Friday when the Greek finance minister said the country would [..]

European Session – Dollar’s post-GDP decline saved by hawkish Bullard

Posted on January 30, 2015 at 3:12 pm GMT

The euro had a good week and is on track for its first weekly gain since mid- December 2014. The single currency bounced from an 11-year low of 1.1096 touched early in the week in reaction to the Greek election results and managed to climb back above 1.1300. The rise in the EUR/CHF pair today due to talk of more SNB intervention helped support the euro across the board. The euro rose to a high of 1.0522 francs, moving further away [..]

Forex News – Week Ahead: Nonfarm payrolls, Reserve Bank of Australia and Chinese PMIs likely center of attention

Posted on January 30, 2015 at 3:02 pm GMT

Central bank meetings in Australia and the UK, key business sentiment surveys out of China and the US and of course the all-important US employment report, will likely prove the highlights of the coming week for financial markets. Starting with Australia, the local dollar has received a battering lately on expectations that the country’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia, is thinking about adopting a bias towards cutting interest rates. The actual RBA meeting will take place on Tuesday [..]

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