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Asian Session – Dollar regains some ground in quiet trading

Posted on February 20, 2015 at 8:21 am GMT

The bout of profit-taking on the US dollar looked like ending during the past couple of sessions, as a drop in weekly US jobless claims data caused traders to reestablish dollar longs.  In addition, there was confidence that the Fed was going to raise interest rates by the end of this year, even though the likelihood of an early rate hike had diminished after the relatively dovish Fed minutes.  According to some market experts the US was still “the only [..]

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Technical Analysis – EURUSD consolidates below 1.1400

Posted on February 20, 2015 at 8:19 am GMT

EURUSD continues to trade in a tight range above support of 1.1261.The pair has tested the key 1.1400 level several times but has moved back below it today. A break of the multi-year low at 1.1096 would strengthen the underlying bearish trend. Technical indicators are bearish. Looking at the daily chart, the kijun-sen line is pointing south, and the Ichimoku cloud is thickening.  RSI is in bearish territory below 50 and the recent rise has stalled, indicating that the momentum [..]

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European Session – Euro falls below 1.14 after German rejection of Greek loan extension proposal

Posted on February 19, 2015 at 3:22 pm GMT

Greece’s official request for a loan extension and a less hawkish – than- expected set of FOMC minutes were the core drivers of the currency markets in the last 24 hours. The euro rallied from late Wednesday to reach a high of 1.1449 in late morning European session trading. Helping extend the rally were a few developments regarding Greece. The first was news that the ECB approved a further ELA increase (Emergency Liquidity Assistance) by 3.3bln euros to 68.3bln, although [..]

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Forex News – Federal Reserve apprehensive of raising rates too quickly

Posted on February 19, 2015 at 1:40 pm GMT

The minutes of the Federal Reserve January 27/28 meeting were released yesterday and overall they showed a committee with some concerns about the economic outlook and whether US interest rates can rise soon. One of the main takeaway points from the minutes is that most Fed members prefer to wait in raising interest rates – perhaps risking possible negative side effects such as inflation or asset bubbles – rather than raising rates too quickly which could hurt the US economic [..]

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Asian Session – Japanese Yen retains gains vs dollar after strong trade data

Posted on February 19, 2015 at 8:14 am GMT

The yen managed to keep the dollar below the 119 level, after trade data for January showed both exports expanding much more than expected as well as imports contracting.  Therefore the country’s trade deficit was about 500 billion yen narrower than anticipated by forecasts.  This was a further indication that the weakness in the yen is helping the country’s trade performance but the drop in imports – although helpful for economic growth – also shows problems in domestic demand. The [..]

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Technical Analysis – EURJPY gives bullish signals

Posted on February 19, 2015 at 8:08 am GMT

EURJPY has maintained its corrective bounce from the 130.13 low hit on January 26 (17-month low). The near-term picture looks bullish as the daily tenkan-sen crossed above the kijun-sen line. Also in other indicators, the daily stochastic crossed above its signal line, so this is also a bullish signal. The RSI is rising steadily. To the upside, the next target would be the February 11 high of 136.68 which is also where the 23.6% Fibo lies from the 94.09 – [..]

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European Session – Pound outperforms on strong UK jobs data

Posted on February 18, 2015 at 3:07 pm GMT

The best performing major currency was the British pound which gained about 0.5% against the dollar on the day so far. Strong UK employment data and earnings numbers helped lift sterling to the highest level since January 2nd, topping at 1.5439. The Bank of England minutes also provided few surprises. Average weekly earnings, including bonuses, rose 2.1% in annual terms in the three months to December, beating forecasts for a 1.7% increase. This compared to a 1.8% increase in the [..]

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Forex News – UK unemployment falls; sterling rallies

Posted on February 18, 2015 at 3:02 pm GMT

The news about better-than-expected UK employment statistics helped the pound move higher in today’s trading.  Unemployment fell to 5.7% for the three months to December – its lowest since July 2008 and below expectations for it to remain constant at 5.8%.  The claimant count number of unemployed fell by 38.6 thousand during January, against expectations of a drop of 25 thousand expected by economists.  These statistics show that the UK economy is creating enough jobs to lower the rate of [..]

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Asian Session – Yen posts slight gains on steady Bank of Japan; euro steady

Posted on February 18, 2015 at 8:01 am GMT

The Bank of Japan meeting failed to deliver any surprises, as the Bank reaffirmed its optimism about a moderate economic recovery taking place, led by exports and industrial production.  Consumption on the other hand could be doing better.  Core inflation excluding the effect of the April sales tax hike was on track to be low at 0.5%, although the forecast was for inflation to rebound to around 2% in fiscal year 2015/2016.  Governor Kuroda reiterated his commitment for additional stimulus [..]

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Technical Analysis – EURGBP hovers near 7-year low, strong bearish bias

Posted on February 18, 2015 at 7:25 am GMT

EURGBP is hovering near a 7-year low of 0.7371. The outlook remains bearish for the pair as it remains below minor resistance at 0.7458. A break above this level would weaken the bearish bias. Meanwhile, a break below the low of 0.7371 would strengthen the downtrend and target the next support level at 0.7260 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 0.5680 – 0.9801). The falling Ichimoku cloud and the negatively aligned tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines highlight the [..]

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