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European Session – Dollar tumbles on dismal March nonfarm payrolls number

Posted on April 3, 2015 at 1:33 pm GMT

The European session was quiet as there were no Eurozone data releases due to nearly all of Europe being closed for the Good Friday holiday. Despite the holiday, the US Labor Department released the March nonfarm payrolls report as is normal on the first Friday of every month. Last month’s number disappointed and missed forecasts for a gain of 245,000 jobs. Instead the US economy added the fewest jobs since December 2013. Nonfarm payrolls increased by the seasonally adjusted 126,000 [..]

Week Ahead – Fed minutes and central bank meetings will attract attention post-Easter

Posted on April 3, 2015 at 1:19 pm GMT

The coming week will be starting on a quiet note as the major markets in Europe will be closed for the Easter break. This includes Germany, France and the UK, as well as Australia and New Zealand in Asia. The main data coming out on Monday, April 6 is the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in the US, although a speech by the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will also be interesting to watch for any possible changes to the Bank’s [..]

Asian Session – Dollar range-bound in holiday trading; awaits employment report

Posted on April 3, 2015 at 7:14 am GMT

The US dollar was mostly inside its recent ranges during today’s Asian trading, ahead of key event risk such as the release of the nonfarm payrolls report and as a number of markets will be closed today because of the Good Friday holiday observed in many countries. Although the economic data out of the United States the previous day was relatively upbeat, the dollar did not manage to stage any sustained recovery – particularly against the euro as euro / dollar [..]

Technical Analysis – USDJPY consolidates below 120.00

Posted on April 3, 2015 at 6:40 am GMT

USDJPY has found support at the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the upleg from 115.84 to 122.01. This support comes in at 119.64. A break below this level would find the next support at the 50% Fibonacci at 118.92 and then at 61.8% at 118.20. To the upside, resistance comes in at the March 31st high of 120.35 and at the 23.6% Fibonacci at 120.58. The trend has been neutral since December 2014 and the pair has been trading between 115.55 [..]

European Session – Euro rises above 1.09, dollar lifted by US jobless claims

Posted on April 2, 2015 at 2:33 pm GMT

The dollar rallied after today’s US data on trade and jobless claims. The greenback jumped to a high of 119.88, off a low of 119.44. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week by 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 268,000 for the week ending March 28, while forecasts were for claims rising to 285,000. Focus now turns to tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls, which are forecast to increase 245,000 last month. Separate upbeat data showed the [..]

Quarterly review: US dollar, yen post strong gains as euro lags in Q1

Posted on April 2, 2015 at 2:21 pm GMT

The first quarter was noticeable for some very sharp currency moves, as the US dollar posted significant gains and the euro crashed. Many pundits rapidly revised their euro / dollar forecasts lower to eye parity and beyond. The focus was on the ECB’s plan to buy government bonds, while the Fed was preparing to raise interest rates. The depreciating euro was the weakest major currency in the first quarter of 2015 as it lost around 11% of its value against [..]

Technical Analysis – AUDUSD downside bias remains

Posted on April 2, 2015 at 6:27 am GMT

AUDUSD continued its decline and touched a low of 0.7567 on Thursday. The downside bias accelerated after breaking below the kijun-sen and tenkan-sen lines. The pair is heading towards the multi-year low of 0.7559 and a break below this would open the path towards the next Fibonacci level of 0.7088 – this is the 78.6% retracement of the upleg from 0.6008 to 1.1078. To the upside, resistance lies at the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud at 0.7705 and above this [..]

European Session – Eurozone PMI lifts euro, US ISM hurts dollar

Posted on April 1, 2015 at 2:32 pm GMT

Global PMIs were in focus today, with expansion in manufacturing activity gaining pace in China, the UK and even in the Eurozone. Japan and the US disappointed. The encouraging manufacturing PMI release for the Eurozone was enough to lift the euro. The final Markit PMI reading for March rose to a 10-month high of 52.2, above forecasts of 51.9. A cheaper euro helped increase exports, which consequently drove the PMI higher. The PMI index has been above the 50 [..]

Forex News – Chinese manufacturing PMI rises in March beating forecasts

Posted on April 1, 2015 at 8:27 am GMT

China’s factory sector showed more activity in March according to a Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey. The index unexpectedly rose from February’s 49.9 to 50.1 in March according to data released on Wednesday by the National Bureau of Statistics in China. The data suggested that stimulus measures used by the Chinese government have been helping bolster the manufacturing sector in the world’s second largest economy. The March figure defied forecasts for a drop to 49.7. A figure above 50 denotes [..]

Technical Analysis – EURUSD pauses decline, downside risk remains

Posted on April 1, 2015 at 7:12 am GMT

EURUSD bounced from Tuesday’s low of 1.0712, pausing the recent 4-day decline from 1.1051. The daily tenkan-sen line crossing above the kijun-sen line indicates some consolidation in in play. Upside is limited by solid resistance at the March 26 high of 1.1052. This is also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the downleg from 1.1449 to 1.0461. The January 26 low of 1.1096 is also an important resistance level and a decisive break above this would reverse the downside bias. [..]

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