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European Session – Euro hits 3-week high as dollar falls on weak US housing data ahead of FOMC

Posted on April 28, 2015 at 2:23 pm GMT

The euro climbed to a three-week high of 1.0965, helped by a broadly weaker US dollar ahead of the FOMC and also optimism that talks will get back on track now that Greek Finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has been sidelined from the negotiations. The two-year Greek government bond yield fell to 21.9% today, which was a good indication of optimism in the markets that Greece would reach a deal with its lenders and avert bankruptcy. Yields had hit as high [..]

First quarter UK GDP growth slows to sharper than expected 0.3%

Posted on April 28, 2015 at 11:26 am GMT

Preliminary GDP figures for the United Kingdom published today showed the UK economy slowing much more sharply than expected in the first quarter of 2015. The first estimate of GDP showed that the quarterly growth rate halved to 0.3% in the first quarter, from the 0.6% recorded in the last quarter of 2014. Compared to a year ago, first quarter GDP was up 2.4% from the first quarter of 2014, below estimates of 2.6% growth. This was the slowest rate [..]

Asian Session – Soft dollar awaits Fed meeting; UK GDP on tap

Posted on April 28, 2015 at 7:17 am GMT

The US dollar remained under some pressure versus other majors during a session that lacked catalysts to move the markets significantly. The euro came back from its 1.0925 high of the previous day to trade around 1.0880, while dollar / yen found itself once more around the 119 level. The euro received a boost after the Greek government reshuffled the negotiating team that talks with its European creditors, as it sought to reduce the influence of the country’s embattled Finance [..]

Technical Analysis – EURUSD continues to consolidate

Posted on April 28, 2015 at 6:32 am GMT

EURUSD has found resistance at the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0922 of the downleg from 1.1034 to 1.0519. The near term bias remains neutral as the pair continues to consolidate. It is unclear yet if there has been bottoming at the multi-year low of 1.0461. Unless there is a break above the March 26 high of 1.1051, the outlook remains bearish. Immediate support lies at the 50% Fibonacci level at 1.0776, which is also where the kijun-sen line is found. [..]

European Session – Euro steady as Varoufakis sidelined from debt negotiations

Posted on April 27, 2015 at 1:51 pm GMT

The euro fell to a low of 1.0820 after hitting as high as 1.0886 as Greek concerns grow. Greece has three important debt payment deadlines coming up. On April 30, the Greek government has to pay 1.5 billion euros in salaries and pensions to civil servants. Following from this, another payment deadline is due on May 6 for 201 million euros in interest to the IMF, while on May12, 766 million is due in principal to the IMF. Meanwhile, there [..]

Asian Session – US dollar under pressure after weak data while central bank events ahead

Posted on April 27, 2015 at 7:01 am GMT

The US dollar remained under serious pressure against most majors with the possible exception of the Japanese yen, following weaker-than-expected capital equipment orders (excluding defense and air transportation equipment). The data supported the view of the US economy slowing down during the first quarter or possibly the first half of this year and that an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve would probably take place later in the year. Markets will be closely watching developments out of the United [..]

Technical Analysis – GBPUSD bullish after breaking above daily cloud

Posted on April 27, 2015 at 6:40 am GMT

GBPUSD broke above the daily Ichimoku cloud on Friday. Upside momentum appears to be strong, as the RSI is above 50 and is rising. For now prices have found resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.5182, of the downleg from the July 2014 high of 1.7190 to 1.4564. A sustained break above this would target the next Fibonacci level and the February 26 high of 1.5551. A break above this would be needed to strengthen bullish sentiment. Immediate [..]

European Session – Dollar tumbles on durable goods orders, euro volatile on Greece headlines

Posted on April 24, 2015 at 2:09 pm GMT

The euro was lifted to a more than 2-week high against the dollar today after the German IFO report came in better-than-expected. Europe’s largest economy showed that its business confidence jumped to a 10-month high in April, with the index printing a reading of 108.6 versus 107.9 in March. It beat forecasts for an increase to 108.4. The euro rallied back into the 1.08 handle to peak at 1.0899 before slipping back down to 1.0809 as some news headlines trickled [..]

Week Ahead – US Fed and BoJ rate decisions, GDP data to dominate

Posted on April 24, 2015 at 12:48 pm GMT

The economic calendar for the upcoming week looks busy despite a number of bank holidays for several countries. The key data will be coming out of the United States where the US Federal Reserve will hold their April Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday, as well as preliminary GDP readings to be published on the same day. GDP data for other countries are also due next week, including the United Kingdom and Canada. PMI data for the US, [..]

Asian Session – Dollar weakness continues after uninspiring economic data; euro up on Greece hopes

Posted on April 24, 2015 at 7:20 am GMT

The US dollar was still under pressure following the release of weaker-than-expected economic data the previous day. A miss by weekly jobless claims and a worse-than-expected drop in March New Home Sales caused the dollar to retreat broadly. The euro pushed above the 1.0850 level to trade at its highest in more than 2 weeks, while dollar / yen was back down to its familiar 119 handle level as yet another attempt to remain above 120 failed. The euro was [..]

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