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Asian session – US dollar recovery challenged by weak data, Trump actions

Posted on January 30, 2017 at 8:22 am GMT

The US dollar traded mostly sideways on Monday, as an attempt to drive it lower in mid-Asian session failed. Still the dollar had trouble fully overcoming headwinds like Friday’s weak GDP numbers as well as Trump’s latest controversial executive order that banned immigration from seven Muslim-majority countries in the Middle East and Africa. The dollar index traded as low as 100.17, before coming back to 100.40 in late Asian trading. Friday’s close was at 100.56. On Friday, data showed that [..]

Week Ahead – BoJ, Fed and BoE meet amid rising inflation; NFP and Eurozone flash GDP also eyed

Posted on January 27, 2017 at 5:03 pm GMT

Central bank meetings will dominate a packed week as investors await for clues on policy direction, while a flurry of key data releases will also keep markets on edge. The US non-farm payrolls report and the flash estimate of Eurozone GDP will likely be the main highlights in terms of data. But political developments with President Trump and Brexit could also impact trading in a week where many Asian markets will be closed for the Lunar New Year celebrations. Bank [..]

European session – Dollar extends rebound despite US GDP miss

Posted on January 27, 2017 at 4:53 pm GMT

The US dollar made an effort to extend its comeback today as the markets seemed to be shifting focus from Trump’s protectionist messages to his pro-growth policies. Weaker-than-expected GDP growth pulled back the dollar from earlier gains, though this pull back does not seem enough for now to lead the dollar index to levels below yesterday’s close. US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.9% during the fourth quarter of 2016 per advance estimates. Expectations were for a 2.2% [..]

Technical Analysis – Germany 30 stock index bullish at 20-month high

Posted on January 27, 2017 at 12:35 pm GMT

The Germany 30 stock index has fallen slightly after recording a 20-month high during yesterday’s trading. The MACD is giving a short-term bullish signal as it is above 0. This is reinforced by the RSI indicator, which is also in bullish territory above 50. Note though that RSI is slightly above the 70 overbought level, perhaps hinting that the recent upside movement is overextended and a short-term reversal could follow. The area around the 11500 key level (between 11450-11550) has [..]

Technical Analysis – USDJPY intraday bullish as prices challenge the cloud top

Posted on January 27, 2017 at 8:56 am GMT

USDJPY has been edging higher for a second straight day. The pair today hit a weekly high. Delving into the Ichimoku analysis, the Tenkan-sen line (red) crossed below the Kijun-sen one (blue) in mid-January. This is a short-term negative signal. However, the stochastics which transmit immediate market sentiment are painting a bullish intraday picture as the %K line is at bullish levels at 62, while it has also crossed above the slow %D line. Both these facts indicate positive intraday [..]

Asian session – US dollar makes comeback on growth optimism

Posted on January 27, 2017 at 8:39 am GMT

The US dollar clawed back some of its recent losses during Friday’s Asian trading on optimism about US economic prospects and as some market participants speculated that the dollar’s recent losses had gone too far. The dollar index extended its run above the 100 mark to around 100.80, as the greenback posted solid gains across the board against other majors. Euro / dollar was pushed below the 1.07 level down to 1.0662, while dollar / yen rallied above 115 to [..]

European Session – Dollar bounces back on higher treasury yields, pushing euro and pound lower

Posted on January 26, 2017 at 4:28 pm GMT

The positive sentiment from the Dow Jones’ record break above the 20,000 level carried forward to Thursday’s European session, though risk appetite ebbed slightly in afternoon trading. European equities were mixed in late session, while 10-year US treasury yields rallied to a 4-week high. The higher yields spurred the US dollar to finally break out of the past day’s tight trading range, helping it climb above 114 yen. Investor concerns about Donald Trump’s policies on trade and immigration have been [..]

Forex News – New Zealand inflation gets back within RBNZ’s target band; Kiwi reverses earlier gains

Posted on January 26, 2017 at 4:19 pm GMT

Today saw the release of New Zealand inflation data for the final quarter of 2016. The figures were stronger than expected and helped lift the New Zealand dollar to a 2½-month high against the US dollar. Specifically, consumer prices rose during the fourth quarter of 2016 by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and by 1.3% year-on-year. Analysts’ forecasts were for a 0.3% q/q and 1.2% y/y increase. The kiwi was immediately boosted by the data as it rose by about half a percent [..]

Technical Analysis – EURGBP short-term bearish with the stochastics at oversold levels

Posted on January 26, 2017 at 11:01 am GMT

EURGBP has been on a downtrend since January 17 and hit a three-week low of 0.8470 today. The RSI indicator is in bearish territory at 42, indicating negative market bias over the short-term. The stochastics reinforce the negative short-term view as the %K line is at bearish levels as well, while it has been below the slow %D line throughout this period of downward movement. Bear in mind though that %K is also below the 20 mark, indicating oversold levels. [..]

Technical Analysis – AUDJPY range-bound; outlook still bullish

Posted on January 26, 2017 at 9:02 am GMT

AUDJPY has been moving within the relatively narrow range of 83.73 – 87.52 since the start of December. Before this period of consolidation, the pair had been in an uptrend that began in September 2016. The RSI indicator is in bullish territory at 55, but this is close to the 50 neutral level. This perhaps indicates that the momentum for upside moves in the near-term is not that strong. The pair has been posting some minor gains in today’s trading [..]

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