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Week Ahead – Industrial production and Chinese data to come in focus

Posted on June 5, 2015 at 11:08 am GMT

The coming week will see key industrial production figures released for April as well as revised GDP data for the Eurozone and Japan. But China will also be in focus as trade and inflation figures will be published alongside industrial production data. China will begin the week with the release of trade balance figures for May. This, and the industrial production data out on Thursday will be closely watched as fears of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the Chinese economy remain [..]

Asian session – Greek woes, bund yield reversal weigh on euro ahead of NFP

Posted on June 5, 2015 at 7:18 am GMT

The euro traded in a range of 1.1180-1.1240 during today’s Asian session, following a roller-coaster ride the previous day that saw it climb to 1.1379 from around 1.1229. 10-year bund yields climbed to nearly 1% to back down to 0.82% subsequently. The volatile movements of long-term interest rates had a profound effect on the euro. Trading in the US dollar was basically subdued ahead of the announcement of the all-important May employment numbers. The debate on when the Fed should [..]

Technical Analysis – AUDJPY maintains neutral bias

Posted on June 5, 2015 at 7:12 am GMT

AUD/JPY maintains a neutral bias in the near term, after the recent rise from 90.17 stalled into a range. The pair found support by its 200-day moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the downleg from 102.82 (November) to 89.34 (February) and is capped at 97.27. Immediate resistance lies at the top of the range at the May 14 high of 97.27 and the 61.8% Fibonacci at 97.67. A break below support at 94.46 would target the 23.6% [..]

Technical Analysis – USDCAD keeps bullish bias but outlook is neutral

Posted on June 4, 2015 at 2:10 pm GMT

USDCAD appears to be consolidating around 1.2483 having just managed to break above the Ichimoku cloud. This level is also the 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement level of the downleg from the March 18 high of 1.2834 to the May 14 low of 1.1919. With RSI above 50 and trending upwards, the near term bias is bullish. The medium-term outlook is looking neutral though as the tenkan-sen line crossing the kijun-sen line below the Ichimoku cloud weakens the bullish signals and [..]

European Session – Euro hits 3-week high above 1.13 as bond yields soar, dollar boosted after jobless claims

Posted on June 4, 2015 at 1:55 pm GMT

The euro strengthened further today due to a significant sell off in bonds which led to a rise in yields. The benchmark German 10-year bond yield reached 0.99%, its highest level since September 2014.There was a huge market reaction to ECB President Mario Draghi’s comments yesterday when he spoke during a press conference following the Bank’s policy meeting. Draghi expressed little concern over the latest bond market volatility and he did not signal any risks from the tightening of liquidity [..]

Technical Analysis – GBPJPY maintains strong bullish bias

Posted on June 4, 2015 at 12:20 pm GMT

GBPJPY reached new six- and a half- year highs today of 191.53 as the yen continues to weaken across the board. The pair has been trading above the Ichimoku cloud since the end of April and the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines have been positively aligned since. With RSI also bullish above 70, the upside bias remains strong. Looking at the linear regression lines, prices have moved to the lower half of the channel, suggesting a slightly weakened momentum than at [..]

Asian session – Euro consolidates versus dollar, breaks over 140 versus yen; aussie tumbles

Posted on June 4, 2015 at 7:20 am GMT

The euro was consolidating the previous day’s huge gains versus the US dollar, while making a fresh 5-month high versus the yen above the psychologically important 140 level. Euro bulls were eyeing the May high of 1.1466 versus the dollar and any violation of the 1.15 level could potentially signal an important shift in sentiment towards the pair. The latest round of euro strength was fuelled by higher Eurozone government bond yields, after ECB President Mario Draghi sounded more upbeat [..]

Technical Analysis – EURUSD rallies above 1.12 but reversal is likely

Posted on June 4, 2015 at 7:15 am GMT

EURUSD rallied to a high of 1.1284 on Wednesday and eased down early on Thursday to find support at 1.1243, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 1.0519 to 1.1466. The pair had a strong bullish momentum after bouncing from 1.0818 and rising above the daily Ichimoku cloud. RSI rising above 50 also highlighted the bullish bias. The 1.1500 level is a critical level and a decisive break above it would strengthen the bullish case. However [..]

European Session – Euro rises above 1.12 on Draghi and weak US ISM non-manufacturing data

Posted on June 3, 2015 at 2:48 pm GMT

The highlight of the day was Mario Draghi’s press conference. The President of the European Central Bank was generally quite optimistic and signaled that the worst was over for the Eurozone and this helped the euro higher. The main gist of the news conference was that Draghi does not foresee an early end to the quantitative easing program and reinforced the ECB’s commitment to its completion, with purchases expected to continue through September 2016. He also does not think the [..]

Technical Analysis – USDJPY loses momentum but outlook is bullish

Posted on June 3, 2015 at 2:32 pm GMT

USDJPY remains near 13-year highs despite losing some momentum in the last two trading sessions. The pair has been trading at the upper price target of the upper Bollinger Band since the current uptrend started in mid-May and a near-term correction may be due. The stochastic oscillator supports a short term sell-off as the %K line crosses below the %D line but the RSI holds strongly above 70, signalling only a limited correction. But with prices sharply above the 50-, [..]

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