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Technical Analysis – USDCHF in bullish mode but outlook is bearish

Posted on June 15, 2015 at 1:06 pm GMT

USDCHF jumped by 1% today as it attempts to break out of a downwards slide that’s been in progress since May 27. RSI has risen to 50 and the stochastic oscillator is also indicating a bullish bias in the near term as the %K line is has crossed above the %D line. Medium-term outlook still looks bearish though as prices trade below the Ichimoku cloud with the bottom of the cloud providing resistance at 0.94. The Tenkan-sen line moving above [..]

Grexit fears intensify on lack of progress as deadline nears

Posted on June 15, 2015 at 10:02 am GMT

Euro volatility increased on Monday as another round of talks between Greece and its creditors failed. Sunday’s meeting, which was seen as the last opportunity for significant progress before the Eurogroup meeting, lasted 45 minutes according to reports as the differences between the two sides remained too wide. The Greek government’s refusal to budge on key election promises on pensions, wages and VAT on energy are the main sticking points for Greece’s creditors. The next key date is the Eurogroup [..]

Asian Session – Euro recovers from lows but pressure mounts on Greece as talks fail again

Posted on June 15, 2015 at 7:35 am GMT

The euro started the day lower in Asian trading as failure on Sunday for Greece to reach an agreement with its creditors dragged down the single currency. There were reports that the talks lasted less than an hour with EU officials laying the blame on the Greek side for not bringing anything new to the negotiating table and making incomplete proposals, while Athens insisted that it would not give in to demands for more concessions on wages, pensions and VAT. [..]

Technical Analysis – NZDUSD strongly bearish below 0.7000

Posted on June 15, 2015 at 7:17 am GMT

The downside bias for NZDUSD remains strong after prices fell further on Friday to a new 5-year low of 0.6941.The pair has been unable to reclaim the key psychological level of 0.7000 giving the likelihood of further weakness. Prices continue to track the lower Bollinger line and this supports the bearish bias. Immediate support lies at Friday’s low of 0.6941, while the next support lies at 0.6885, which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 0.4881 to [..]

European Session – Euro vulnerable to Greece risk, dollar set for weekly losses versus yen despite good data

Posted on June 12, 2015 at 2:41 pm GMT

The euro dipped sharply early in the European session after German Chancellor Angela Merkel commented on the currency’s strength. Merkel specifically referred to challenges that countries like Portugal, Spain and Ireland would face. Since the April low of 1.0519 till present day, the euro has gained over 6% against the dollar. The euro fell from 1.1246 down to 1.1150 today but managed to recover to 1.1242. However, the single currency remains vulnerable to risk concerning Greece. The negotiations with Greece’s [..]

Technical Analysis – GBPUSD drops below 1.55 as bullish signals weaken

Posted on June 12, 2015 at 2:07 pm GMT

GBPUSD dropped below the 1.55 handle today after struggling to rise past Wednesday’s high of 1.5553. Resistance came at 23.6% of the Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 1.4564 to 1.5814, which has previously acted as support and resistance around 1.5518. Near-term bias is shifting to the downside as the %D line of the stochastic oscillator is approaching to cross above the %K line. RSI is also weak as it trends down towards 50. Support is likely to come [..]

Week Ahead – Inflation data for US, UK and Eurozone to set the tone but all eyes on Fed Meeting

Posted on June 12, 2015 at 12:10 pm GMT

The week ahead is set to be a significant one for monetary policy as May inflation figures are published for the US, UK, Eurozone and Canada. Central bank decisions for Switzerland, the US and Japan will be closely watched, especially the Fed’s June meeting. The US will start the week with industrial production figures out on Monday. They are expected to show industrial production expanded by a monthly 0.2% in May, versus -0.3% in April, while the Empire State Manufacturing [..]

Asian session – US dollar steady following retail sales; euro hurt by Greek talks impasse

Posted on June 12, 2015 at 7:20 am GMT

The US dollar maintained some of its latest gains as the dollar index was above 95 at 95.19 versus a low around 94.4 it hit on Wednesday. Positive retail sales numbers for May, announced the previous day, helped support the dollar. Headline retail sales were up 1.2% month-on-month during May, higher than the consensus of a Reuters’ poll of a 1.1% gain. Excluding automobiles, parts and gas, the figure was significantly stronger than consensus, at 1.0% actual versus 0.7% expected, [..]

Technical Analysis – USDJPY remains bullish above 200-day moving average

Posted on June 12, 2015 at 7:15 am GMT

USD/JPY made a decent recovery after Wednesday’s tumble to 122.44. The kijun-sen line provides good support but the tenkan-sen line is acting as resistance at 124.16. If there is a sustained break above this level then there is scope for further gains to retest the June 5 high of 125.84. Meanwhile the 50 % Fibonacci retracement of the May 14 to June 5 rise is also providing support and it coincides with the kijun-sen line, making it a strong support [..]

Mid-European Session – Dollar edges higher ahead of US retail sales, euro steady as Greece bailout talks continue

Posted on June 11, 2015 at 11:48 am GMT

The market’s focus was shifting back to US data today and away from Greece for now since there has not been any new headlines regarding the debt talks between Greece and its creditors so far today. A meeting on Wednesday between Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Hollande appeared optimistic on a bailout deal as the leaders agreed to continue talks today with higher intensity. There were reports by Reuters that a senior EU [..]

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