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European Session – Euro weakens as EU Summit looms, dollar surges on US GDP data

Posted on June 24, 2015 at 2:40 pm GMT

Headlines pointing to the remaining differences between Greece and its international creditors caused volatility in the euro today. It was reported that Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said that some of his government’s proposed reforms that were submitted this week were rejected due to disagreements on tax and pension reforms. Tsipras’ comments rattled the markets because most investors were optimistic until now that there would be a deal this week. But the news of the rejection came as a shock [..]

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Technical Analysis – EURGBP looking bearish on downside pressure

Posted on June 24, 2015 at 2:25 pm GMT

EURGBP made a small recovery today after it came close yesterday to retracing 100% of the May-June upleg from 0.7054 to 0.7388. The pair has been trading in a range since bottoming from its November 2014 – March 2015 downtrend at 0.7013 on March 11. If prices drop below the support level provided by the 100% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.7054, this will bring it closer to breaking below the range bottom and to new multi-year lows. The recent double [..]

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German business confidence falls in June as Greek uncertainty weighs on sentiment

Posted on June 24, 2015 at 10:33 am GMT

German business confidence weakened to its lowest level in four months in June as the ongoing Greek debt negotiations have created uncertainty within the business community. The IFO Business Climate index fell to 107.4 in June, below estimates of 108.1 by a Reuters poll. GDP growth slowed to 0.3% in the first quarter of the year in Germany and although there were signs of a pick-up in growth in April and May, data is pointing to moderating growth in the [..]

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Asian Session – Dollar eases after yesterday’s rally; euro awaiting outcome of another Eurogroup meeting

Posted on June 24, 2015 at 7:30 am GMT

The dollar eased back in Wednesday’s Asian session after rising to a one-week high one on Tuesday. The greenback was given a boost from hawkish comments made by Fed governor Jerome Powell in an interview for the Wall Street Journal. Powell said there’s a 50-50 chance that the economy would strengthen in the second half of the year and if that was realized, then the first increase would come in September. This would be followed by a second hike in [..]

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Technical Analysis – USDJPY shifts from neutral to bullish

Posted on June 24, 2015 at 7:10 am GMT

USDJPY shifts from neutral to a more bullish bias after the pair managed to break above the tenkan-sen line on Tuesday to rise to a high of 124.19. This resistance level is the 23.6% Fibonacci of the upleg from 118.88 to 125.84. A sustained break above this level would open the way towards the June 5 high of 125.84. A firm break of this peak would confirm the resumption of the uptrend that has been in progress since rising from [..]

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European Session – Euro tumbles, dollar strengthens on Fed’s Powell’s hawkish comments

Posted on June 23, 2015 at 2:43 pm GMT

The euro tumbled across the board today despite upbeat data showing signs of strenghtening recovery in the Eurozone. The markets shrugged off PMI data which showed activity in June increased in both services and manufacturing in the region. The composite PMI climbed to a four-month high of 54.1 in June from 53.6 in May. Despite the good Eurozone data, the euro fell to a 2-week low against the dollar to 1.1134. Just yesterday the euro tested the 1.14 handle. But [..]

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Technical Analysis – NZDUSD falls to 5-year lows; outlook is bearish

Posted on June 23, 2015 at 1:48 pm GMT

NZDUSD was heading for a sixth straight day of losses, falling to a fresh five-year low of 0.6813. The pair has been moving downwards in the lower band of the Bollinger bands since it went into reverse at the end of April. The outlook is decisively bearish with prices sharply below the 50-, 100- and 200- day moving averages. The next key support level will be the psychological 0.68 level. A break below this level would take it to new [..]

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Strong Eurozone flash PMI fails to lift euro

Posted on June 23, 2015 at 10:35 am GMT

The Markit flash PMI data for June showed a strong rebound in Eurozone momentum after disappointing figures for May. Eurozone activity reached a four-year high, while individual figures for Germany and France also showed significant improvement over the previous month. France, where growth had been lagging the rest of the Eurozone for much of the past year, showed the biggest improvement. Manufacturing PMI entered expansionary territory for the first time since April 2014, rising to 50.5 in June from 49.4 [..]

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Asian Session – Shares boosted by progress on Greek talks but euro weaker

Posted on June 23, 2015 at 7:27 am GMT

Asian shares followed European bourses higher today with Japan’s Nikkei 225 index touching 15-year highs on hopes that a Greek deal will be reached this week. Monday’s Eurogroup meeting ended without a major breakthrough but Greece’s latest proposals were said to be comprehensive and enough to form a basis for an agreement. European shares jumped by over 4% yesterday on optimism that a deal will be reached soon. However, the proposals had come too late in the day and lacked [..]

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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD downside bias strengthens

Posted on June 23, 2015 at 7:22 am GMT

AUDUSD has been trading below the daily Ichimoku cloud since early June and has been in a consolidation pattern since its fall from the May 14 high of 0.8162 down to 0.7597. The market has been capped below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of this downleg at 0.7812. The overall bias for AUDUSD remains on the downside especially since prices have fallen below the tenkan-sen line today and the RSI has slipped below 50 into bearish territory. The bearish crossover of [..]

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