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Technical Analysis – EURJPY risks more downside

Posted on July 3, 2015 at 7:23 am GMT

EURJPY is capped just under the 200-day moving average. The tenkan-sen line is also acting as a barrier to the upside, so strong resistance lies at the key 137.00 level. Prior to Monday’s big drop, EURJPY was declining from 141.04. The decline paused after prices found support at the cloud on Monday and following a bounce from 133.75, the market has been consolidating. The flat tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines suggest more sideways action. If prices fall below Monday’s low of [..]

European Session – US non-farm payrolls weaken dollar, Swedish krona tumbles on rate cut

Posted on July 2, 2015 at 2:38 pm GMT

The European Session was mostly calm until the release of the US non-farm payrolls report when US markets opened. With Greece put aside for today, markets focused on economic data which were the main catalyst for currency moves. One of the biggest movers in the European currencies today was the Swedish Krona which fell to a 1-month low against the euro following a rate cut by Sweden’s central bank. The Riksbank unexpectedly cut its benchmark rate by 10 basis points [..]

Dollar falls after June jobs data fails to impress

Posted on July 2, 2015 at 2:16 pm GMT

The dollar went into reverse to give up earlier gains after June’s jobs data disappointed. The all-important change in nonfarm payrolls for June came in at 223,000 against expectations of 233,000. The previous month’s figure was revised lower from 280,000 to 254,000, which contributed to the shift in outlook of a more moderate recovery in the jobs market than anticipated. The unemployment rate was the only positive component of the jobs data as it fell to 5.3% from 5.5%, against [..]

Technical Analysis – USDJPY keeps bullish bias on weakened momentum

Posted on July 2, 2015 at 9:37 am GMT

USDJPY headed higher for the second day to 123.55 after hitting a one-month low of 121.93 on June 30. The intra-day bias is bullish as RSI is above 50 and trending upwards. Prices are likely to meet resistance around 124.19, which is 23.6% of the Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 118.88 to 125.84. The upwards momentum has weakened after the tenkan-sen line’s recent crossing below the kijun-sen line. But the overall outlook for the medium term is still [..]

Asian Session – Dollar rises ahead of US jobs data; Greek referendum weighs on euro

Posted on July 2, 2015 at 7:45 am GMT

The dollar firmed after Wednesday’s strong ADP employment change and ISM Manufacturing data, which both came in above estimates. The ADP employment change showed the biggest jobs gain since December and points to a strong set of jobs data in today’s batch of June employment figures. Asian shares continued to brush aside worries over Greece with Japan’s Nikkei heading for a third day of gains. Markets in China appeared unimpressed by moves from China’s securities regulator to ease collateral rules [..]

Technical Analysis – AUDUSD remains bearish below cloud

Posted on July 2, 2015 at 7:07 am GMT

AUDUSD has been trading below the daily Ichimoku cloud since early June and has been in a consolidation pattern since its decline from the May 14 high of 0.8162 down to 0.7597. The market has been capped below the Ichimoku cloud since the beginning of June. The overall bias for AUDUSD remains on the downside especially since prices are capped below the tenkan-sen line and the RSI is below 50 which supports the downside bias. The bearish crossover of the [..]

Half-year review: Dollar rally stalls; euro resilient as Asian majors fall

Posted on July 1, 2015 at 3:06 pm GMT

The US dollar gave up some of its gains in the second quarter of the year after rising sharply in the first quarter. The dollar index, which measures the average value of the dollar against a basket of currencies, had risen by around 10% on rising expectations that the Fed would raise interest rates in the first half of the year. But the greenback lost momentum after the Fed removed the word “patient” from its FOMC statement in March. Although [..]

European Session – Euro tumbles on Greek risk, dollar lifted by strong US data

Posted on July 1, 2015 at 2:29 pm GMT

Greek risk remains elevated after a missed IMF payment and expiry of the current bailout programme. Hopes for an agreement rose after reports that Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras wrote a letter to Greece’s creditors indicating that he would accept all bailout terms that were offered last weekend with only a few minor changes. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said the letter was not a basis for serious negotations. This put pressure on the euro. German Chancellor Angela Merkel reiterated [..]

Tankan survey underlines growing optimism in Japan’s economy

Posted on July 1, 2015 at 11:42 am GMT

The Bank of Japan’s Tankan quarterly survey of business sentiment showed improving sentiment across industries in Japan in the second quarter of the year. The Tankan large manufacturing index was the highlight as it improved for the first time in three quarters. The index rose to 15, against expectations that it would stay unchanged at 12. The large manufacturing outlook had its highest reading since the third quarter of 2007 as it came above estimates. The index climbed to 16 [..]

Asian Session – Euro stable and markets calm after Greek default

Posted on July 1, 2015 at 7:36 am GMT

Greece became the first developed nation to miss a debt payment to the IMF, leading to technical default following its failure on Tuesday to secure a temporary extension of its bailout program. The Greek government had asked its creditors for a new two-year program of additional funding and debt restructuring but it was rejected by Eurozone finance ministers hours before the IMF deadline expired. The IMF said that Greece is now in arrears and can only receive more financing once [..]

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