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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD bearish at 6-year lows

Posted on July 7, 2015 at 7:34 am GMT

AUDUSD remains bearish after a big drop on Friday and then extended lower on Monday to touch a new 6-year low at 0.7461. The bias is to the downside as the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines are negatively aligned. Also the market is below the Ichimoku cloud and below the 100 and 200-day moving averages, all these signals are bearish. RSI is below 50 which supports the downside bias. In the big picture, AUDUSD has been in a downtrend since the [..]

European Session – Euro remains above 1.10 but vulnerable ahead of Eurogroup, EU Summit, dollar rises after ISM Services data

Posted on July 6, 2015 at 2:25 pm GMT

The euro fell back below 1.11 on Monday after Greek voters rejected bailout terms for a debt deal, raising concerns about the country’s exit from the Eurozone. Sunday’s referendum result showed 61% of Greeks voted ‘No’ to back the government in rejecting the austerity terms of a bailout. Now the focus shifts to some important events surrounding the European Central Bank and European leaders and finance ministers. In the meantime capital controls are still in place in Greece. The ECB [..]

Technical Analysis – EURUSD still neutral but bias shifts to downside

Posted on July 6, 2015 at 1:34 pm GMT

EURUSD turned positive after opening 1% lower but the intra-day bias has shifted back to the downside. Both the RSI and the stochastics are signalling downward pressure so the near-term bias for EURUSD is bearish. Support would come at the May 27 low of 1.0818 – a break below this level could signal a shift out of its current range to a downward trend. Current indicators are looking mixed, supporting a neutral outlook in the medium term. On the downside, [..]

Eurozone leaders set to meet on Greek ‘No’ vote but ECB decision also eyed

Posted on July 6, 2015 at 11:05 am GMT

Markets were relatively calm on Monday following the strong ‘No’ vote in Sunday’s referendum in Greece. The terms of the latest bailout proposal put forward by Greece’s creditors was rejected by a wide margin of 61.3%, which took Eurozone leaders by surprise. In a further development, the Greek finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, resigned from his post as a move designed to smoothen negotiation efforts with the country’s creditors following weeks of acrimonious exchanges between Varoufakis and senior figures from the [..]

Asian Session – Euro pares losses after ‘No’ vote; All eyes on new set of Eurozone talks

Posted on July 6, 2015 at 7:46 am GMT

The outcome of Sunday’s referendum in Greece on the bailout program showed 61.3% of the Greek public had voted against the latest creditors’ proposal – a much higher percentage than predicted by opinion polls. In a further surprising turn of events, the Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis handed in his resignation, citing the “preference” of some Eurogroup participants for his “absence” from the Eurogroup meetings. There were no signs of panic in the markets as the euro’s fall was limited [..]

Technical Analysis – GBPJPY gaps lower, downside bias remains

Posted on July 6, 2015 at 7:40 am GMT

GBPJPY gapped lower on Monday and opened at 189.44 compared to 191.32 at Friday’s close. The pair fell to as low as 189.35 before recovering slightly to rise just above 190. The intraday bias remains to the downside as RSI is in bearish territory now below 50 and the tenkan-sen is pointing downwards. For now a short term top is in place at the June 24 high of 195.87 after the rise from 174.86. The market is still above the [..]

European Session – Markets subdued ahead of Greek referendum, US Independence Day holiday

Posted on July 3, 2015 at 2:05 pm GMT

Market activity was subdued due to risk off ahead of key risk this weekend with the Greek referendum on Sunday. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is urging Greek citizens to vote “no” to reject the austerity demanded by creditors in exchange for financial aid. Tsipras called the snap vote last weekend after negotiations with Greece’s creditors broke down. A “no” vote would create more volatility in the markets as it would mean unchartered territory since it would be extremely unclear [..]

Technical Analysis – NZDUSD heads deeper into bear territory

Posted on July 3, 2015 at 1:19 pm GMT

NZDUSD was close to hitting another five-year low today as it was unable to hold above the 0.67 handle, having touched a high of 0.6730 earlier in the day. The pair is looking increasingly bearish as prices move further below the moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud. The downward sloping and negatively aligned tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines are not signalling any change in the medium-term outlook, which is decisively bearish. But with RSI drifting below 30 into oversold territory, a [..]

Week Ahead – Focus on Greek referendum but industrial output should also draw attention

Posted on July 3, 2015 at 12:24 pm GMT

Important data scheduled to come out next week run the risk of becoming overshadowed by the outcome of Greece’s referendum on the bailout program. Key data on industrial production, trade balance and employment could get sidelined whatever the outcome of the referendum. Negotiating efforts are likely to get stepped up as both the Eurozone and the ECB will be faced with a dilemma if the outcome is a “No”. While a “Yes” vote could lead to political instability as the [..]

Asian Session – Dollar steadies after dip from weak Jobs data; Chinese stocks continue slide

Posted on July 3, 2015 at 7:30 am GMT

The dollar started the Asian session flat following its slide against major currencies after June’s soft jobs data. The weaker-than-expected increase in nonfarm payrolls and muted average hourly earnings put into question the average consensus of economists that the Fed will start raising interest rates in September. Asian markets were mixed on Friday as the US data and worries over Greece’s referendum kept investors nervous. Chinese stocks had another bad session as the Shanghai Composite and Shenzen CSI 300 index [..]

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