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Technical Analysis – USDJPY drops below Ichimoku cloud

Posted on July 9, 2015 at 7:20 am GMT

USD/JPY was sold off sharply on Wednesday down to 120.40. This caused prices to drop below the daily Ichimoku cloud breaking the cloud base at 121.70. Prices found support at the 120.40 level and bounced back up into the 121 handle. This support level is a Fibonacci level. It is the 76.4% retracement of the upleg from 118.88 to 125.84. Next support comes at 118.88. To the upside the 61.8% Fibonacci is acting as resistance now at 121.53. We would [..]

European Session – Euro rises as markets looks to new Greece deadline, pound unchanged after Osborne budget

Posted on July 8, 2015 at 2:40 pm GMT

The euro rose against the dollar today after some new developments regarding Greece that raised optimism for a deal with its creditors in coming days. The Greek government received a new deadline to reach a deal on Sunday July 12th when EU leaders from all 28 member countries will meet. Sentiment for the euro improved after Athens submitted an official request today for a three-year loan facility from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and agreed to making reforms soon. This [..]

UK cuts corporation tax but rise in minimum wage risks upsetting business

Posted on July 8, 2015 at 2:10 pm GMT

The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne delivered his first Conservative budget since the party won the May elections with an overall majority. In his speech, the Chancellor downgraded GDP growth forecast for 2015 to 2.4% (from 2.5%) but there was no change for 2016 forecast of 2.3% and 2014 growth was revised up from 2.6% to 3.0%. The budget deficit is expected to fall to 3.7% as a proportion of GDP in 2015/16, down from 10.2% in 2010. [..]

Technical Analysis – GBPUSD outlook weaker on renewed downside pressure

Posted on July 8, 2015 at 9:53 am GMT

GBPUSD dropped below the 200-day moving average on renewed downward momentum. Regaining the 1.55 level looks difficult as the intra-day bias is bearish. RSI is indicating more downward pressure is to come and the stochastics chart shows the %K and %D lines levelling off around 20 but with little sign of upward momentum. There are signs of weakening upside bias as prices have fallen to within the Ichimoku cloud and the tenkan-sen line is close to converging below the kijun-sen [..]

Asian Session – Sunday seen as final deadline for Greece; Dollar steady ahead of Fed minutes

Posted on July 8, 2015 at 7:41 am GMT

The euro was steady in early Asian trade as it held on to its overnight gains after dropping to a low of 1.0915 against the dollar on Tuesday. The scheduled meetings of the Eurogroup and Eurozone leaders ended without an agreement as it was revealed that Greece made no new proposal. However, Greece’s new finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos did present the outlines of a new proposal, which they will present in full detail on Thursday at another Eurogroup meeting. If [..]

Technical Analysis – USDCAD rises close to 6-year high

Posted on July 8, 2015 at 7:14 am GMT

USDCAD extended its rally to 1.2779 on Tuesday. The upside momentum remains strong after the tenkan-sen crossed above the kijun-sen line and there is scope to target the 6-year high of 1.2834 hit on March 18. After falling to a low of 1.2126 on June 18 prices moved back above the Ichimoku cloud. This is also supporting the bullish bias. RSI is in bullish territory but is just about to enter overbought conditions after crossing above the 70 line so [..]

European Session – Euro tumbles below 1.10 as markets await EU leaders Summit

Posted on July 7, 2015 at 2:45 pm GMT

The euro tumbled to a five-week low against the dollar amid increasing political uncertainty surrounding Greece. Ten-year Bund yields fell to their lowest since early June and these helped pull down the euro which broke below 1.10 to reach 1.0915. Investors are nervous as there are increasing fears that Greece will leave the Eurozone after the no vote in the referendum on Sunday. Markets await Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to present new proposals on reforms-for-bailout aid to an emergency [..]

Technical Analysis – Oil rout continues as outlook eclipsed by bearish signals

Posted on July 7, 2015 at 1:05 pm GMT

Oil prices headed lower for a fifth day on continued downward momentum, failing to reverse Monday’s heavy losses. The 5-day losses have pulled prices below the Ichimoku cloud and the tenkan-sen line has crossed below the kijun-sen line. The medium-term outlook is therefore looking increasingly bearish. Prices are likely to find support at 50.75, which is 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from the March 16 low of 42.84 to May 6 high of 63.59. The near-term [..]

RBA keeps rates unchanged as Aussie slumps to 6-year low

Posted on July 7, 2015 at 11:24 am GMT

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its overnight cash rate on hold at 2% at its scheduled policy meeting on Tuesday. The no change was widely expected by analysts but markets are pricing in one more cut by the end of the year following two quarter point cuts in February and May this year. The statement that followed the rate announcement was dovish in tone as the Governor Glenn Stevens maintained his view that the Australian dollar needs to depreciate [..]

Asian Session – Euro lower ahead of EU summit; RBA keeps rates unchanged

Posted on July 7, 2015 at 8:09 am GMT

The euro drifted lower in early Asian trade as the markets await the outcome of the Eurogroup meeting of Eurozone finance ministers and the EU summit to be held later today. It is thought Tuesday’s meetings will be the last realistic chance for Greece to present a credible reform plan needed to secure new funding for its cash-strapped economy. It is hoped Greece’s newly appointed finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos will be able to soothe relations with Eurozone finance ministers following [..]

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