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Technical Analysis – EURJPY peaks out of cloud top

Posted on July 13, 2015 at 7:31 am GMT

EURJPY is attempting to break out of the top of the Ichimoku cloud and there was a brief peak to 137.78 in early European session trading on Monday on the announcement of a Greek deal at the EU Summit. Prices broke above the kijun-sen line of 137.14. The intra-day bias remains mildly to the upside as indicated by the RSI which has just crossed above the 50 line. A further rise will see a retest of 141.04, the June 4 [..]

European Session – Euro relief rally to 1.12 on Greek deal optimism

Posted on July 10, 2015 at 2:13 pm GMT

Risk appetite in the currency markets improved greatly by the end of the week and led to a relief rally in the euro on optimism of a Greek deal soon. After the Greek government submitted reform proposals late on Thursday to its creditors that were mostly in line with what the Eurogroup is expecting, the chances for an agreement for a bailout have increased significantly and the likelihood of a Grexit has diminished. Greece has applied for a three-year 53.5 [..]

Hopes raised on latest Greek proposal as Eurogroup to decide on new bailout

Posted on July 10, 2015 at 1:53 pm GMT

Greece has requested a loan of €53.5 billion from the European Stability Mechanism that will cover the period from now till the end of June 2018. From the €53.5 billion, €46 Billion will be used for the repayment of bonds held by European Central Bank and the loans given by the IMF. While €7.5 billion euro will be returned to the public institutions as repayment for the money taken from their funds. The Greek proposal has small differences from the [..]

Week Ahead – Inflation and central bank decisions in focus as markets eye positive resolution in Greek crisis

Posted on July 10, 2015 at 12:19 pm GMT

After a turbulent week where the Greek crisis and China’s equities slump dominated market headlines, the focus should return to economic developments and central bankers in the coming week, pending a positive outcome over the weekend’s debt negotiations with Greece and its creditors. It is hoped that the Greek crisis will come to a conclusion next week as Saturday’s Eurogroup meeting is seen as the final deadline for the Greek government to agree to a solution. If an agreement is [..]

Asian Session – Euro rises on renewed hopes of Greek deal; Dollar eyes Yellen speech

Posted on July 10, 2015 at 7:32 am GMT

The euro rose in Asian trading after Greece met the deadline for submitting its latest proposal to its creditors to secure a new three-year bailout. The new loan is said to amount to €53.5 billion and includes reforms that were rejected in the bailout referendum such as increases in VAT and pensions cuts, as well defence cuts. However, it is thought that in exchange, Eurozone leaders will agree to some form of debt relief or restructuring for Greece. France, which [..]

Technical Analysis – EURJPY capped below 200-day moving average keeps bearish outlook

Posted on July 10, 2015 at 7:23 am GMT

EURJPY rallied early on Friday to reach a high of 135.76 but is finding resistance at the tenkan-sen line. Prices are inside the daily Ichimoku cloud so this could make it more difficult for a sustained rally. Also there are several barriers to overcome (200-day moving average and the kijun-sen line) before we could say that there is a strong upside momentum. Support is seen at 133.09. A decisive break below this level would strengthen the bearish case and there [..]

European Session – Euro fades gains on Draghi comments, dollar down after US jobless claims

Posted on July 9, 2015 at 1:57 pm GMT

The euro was pressured by comments from ECB President Mario Draghi as well as other ECB policymakers, including Weidmann and Hansson, who all highlighted the challenging situation for a Greek deal to be reached by Sunday. The euro fell back below the 1.11 level as investors became cautious ahead of key risk events. By tonight (midnight on Thursday) Greece has to submit a full proposal of reforms after applying for a new three-year bailout from its Eurozone creditors through the [..]

Technical Analysis – EURGBP looking less bearish with upside bias

Posted on July 9, 2015 at 1:00 pm GMT

EURGBP was down on the day as it found resistance at the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud. The intra-day bias remains positive though after Wednesday’s sharp gains. RSI is trending down but holding just above 50 and the %K and %D lines are still rising and positively aligned in the stochastics chart. The upside momentum could push the pair higher in the near term but in the medium-term, EURGBP is still in a downtrend. Prices continue to trade below the [..]

Aussie lifted from strong jobs growth and bounce in Chinese shares

Posted on July 9, 2015 at 10:25 am GMT

The Australian dollar got some respite on Thursday after heavy losses over the past week have sent it tumbling to six-year lows. Better-than expected employment figures as well as signs of stabilization in China’s stock market helped the aussie make gains of 1% in Asian trading on Thursday. Unemployment in Australia rose to 6.0% in June from a downwardly revised 5.9% in May. Expectations were for a figure of 6.1%. Employment increased by 7,300 to 11,768,600, versus estimates there would [..]

Asian Session – Dollar unmoved from Fed minutes; Yen eases after China shares recover

Posted on July 9, 2015 at 7:48 am GMT

The dollar fell against a basket of currencies in Asian session, continuing its steady decline since Tuesday. Wednesday’s FOMC meeting minutes did not add anything new to the outlook provided in the statement that came out after the June 17 meeting. While some FOMC members were with the view that the conditions for raising rates would be met shortly, most FOMC members consider it too early to judge whether the conditions have improved enough to start increasing rates. The greenback [..]

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