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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD bearish at 6-year lows, falling cloud weighs

Posted on July 15, 2015 at 7:33 am GMT

AUDUSD remains bearish and is hovering at 6-year lows. The bias to the downside is quite strong as the tenkan-sen line is below the kijun-sen line and also the RSI is below 50. The falling 200-day moving average and falling Ichimoku cloud also highlight the underlying bearish market bias. From current levels, support is seen at the 6-year low of 0.7371 touched last week. A break below this would accelerate a fall towards 0.7250. To the upside, resistance is at [..]

Dollar recedes on weak US retail sales data

Posted on July 14, 2015 at 3:00 pm GMT

Retail sales in the US unexpectedly declined in June raising doubts on the strength of consumer spending. The month-on-month change in retail sales was -0.3%, sharply below estimates that it would grow by 0.3%. It’s also down on May’s strong reading of 1.0%, which itself was downwardly revised from 1.2%. The core measure of retail sales was also weaker-than-expected, declining by 0.1% month-on-month, versus forecast of 0.3% and down from May’s figure of 0.7%. Cores sales, which excludes volatile components [..]

European Session – Sterling outperforms after BoE Governor comments on rates, dollar briefly hurt by soft US retail sales

Posted on July 14, 2015 at 2:35 pm GMT

Sterling was one of the best performing major currencies against the dollar today after it jumped to a one-week high on hawkish comments made by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. Delivering a testimony at the UK Treasury Select Committee in London today, Carney mentioned that the time for a rate hike was moving closer. Interest rates have been held at a record low 0.5% since March 2009. Cable surged to 1.5602 after Carney’s comments to reverse earlier losses when [..]

Pound surges on Carney comments reversing declines from weak UK inflation

Posted on July 14, 2015 at 11:23 am GMT

Inflation in the UK showed no signs of picking up in June as annual CPI fell to 0% from 0.1% in May. The figure was within forecasts but the month-on-month rate of 0% was below estimates of 0.1%. Core CPI, which excludes food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, was also below forecasts at 0.8%, versus expectations it would stay unchanged at 0.9% in June. This was the lowest level since March 2001. The downward pressure came mostly from lower food prices, [..]

Asian Session – Dollar continues to gain ahead of key data; Euro lower as Greece doubts persist

Posted on July 14, 2015 at 7:35 am GMT

The dollar extended its gains in Asian trading on Tuesday following gains made on Monday on the back of the deal between Greece and its creditors. The agreement shifted attention away from euro troubles to the timing of the Fed’s rate hike. The euro dropped below 1.10 dollars as markets remain cautious on whether the Greek parliament will approve all the measures agreed in the bailout deal, including the list of reforms that need to be passed to secure interim [..]

Technical Analysis – Oil bearish below Ichimoku cloud and 200-day MA

Posted on July 14, 2015 at 7:24 am GMT

Crude oil prices remain on the downside, with risk for losses to the key 50.00 level. Technical studies support the underlying bearishness especially since the tenkan-sen crossed below the kijun-sen line in early July and the RSI is below 50. When prices fell below the Ichimoku cloud on July 6 this reinforced the bears. The 50.00 level is a critical level and acts as support. A break below it would accelerate a fall to 42.84 (March 16 low).Immediate resistance is [..]

European Session – Euro fades post-EU-Greece agreement gains to fall below 1.11

Posted on July 13, 2015 at 1:56 pm GMT

Following the EU Summit that resulted in a unanimous agreement early on Monday for a Greek bailout, the euro rallied on relief that a Grexit has been avoided and measures have been taken to prevent Greece from going bankrupt. The euro spiked to reach close to the key 1.12 level and peaked at 1.1196 when the headlines broke but has since fallen to 1.1034. The near-term risk now lies in the Greek parliament having to pass six reform bills by [..]

Technical Analysis – NZDUSD bearish again as upside bias reverses

Posted on July 13, 2015 at 12:55 pm GMT

NZDUSD came off the day’s high of 0.6751 as upside momentum faded. The stochastics suggest some positive momentum is still in place with the %K line yet to cross into the %D line but RSI is looking bearish again as it heads towards 30. The long-term bearish outlook for NZDUSD doesn’t look to be going away anytime soon as prices continue to trade below the moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud. However, the recent mini rally may have eased some [..]

Eurozone deal reached on Greek bailout but faces battle in Greek parliament

Posted on July 13, 2015 at 11:13 am GMT

Eurozone leaders and finance ministers finally struck an agreement on Monday morning after non-stop talks lasting 17 hours over the weekend. There were concerns after Sunday’s full EU summit was cancelled because the Eurogroup meeting overran but Eurozone leaders did meet in the evening to push for a deal at an all-night summit. Greece’s latest proposals were initially met positively by the Eurogroup but optimism turned to pessimism after some Eurozone members, notably Germany, Finland and Slovakia, expressed strong doubt [..]

Asian Session – Euro jumps on Greek deal but dollar weaker despite Yellen case for rate rise

Posted on July 13, 2015 at 7:38 am GMT

The euro opened at 1.1091 dollars on Monday in Asian trading, down 0.5% from Friday’s close. After 14 hours of talks lasting into the night, negotiations between Greece and its creditors were still ongoing on Monday morning. Despite Greece’s latest effort to come up with a credible list of reforms, Eurozone leaders said that trust in the Greek government to implement the reforms was the main issue. One of the proposals that was put at the discussions was a German [..]

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