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RBNZ likely to cut again but no longer sees kiwi as overvalued

Posted on July 23, 2015 at 10:19 am GMT

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its official cash rate on Thursday by 0.25% to 3.00%, as was widely expected by analysts. This is the second cut in two months by the RBNZ and follows June’s quarter point cut. New Zealand’s central bank was one of the first in advanced economies to start raising rates after the financial crisis when it began lifting interest rates in early 2014. However, the outlook for the New Zealand economy worsened dramatically [..]

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Asian Session – Dollar eases but euro climbs on Greek vote; Kiwi jumps on rate cut disappointment

Posted on July 23, 2015 at 7:22 am GMT

The euro climbed against the dollar in early Asian trading after the Greek parliament approved the second set of measures required for the bailout talks to start with its creditors. The second bill included new rules for the banking system as well as a new civil justice code. There were fears that more Syriza MPs might rebel against the prime minister than in the first bill but only 36 voted against or abstained, compared with 39 in the first vote. [..]

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Technical Analysis – NZDUSD bearish in lower Bollinger Band

Posted on July 23, 2015 at 7:04 am GMT

NZDUSD is consolidating between support at 0.6560 and resistance at 0.6650 after bouncing off six-year lows of 0.6496 that was reached on July 16. The RSI is pointing up but is in bearish territory so this suggests consolidation in the near term but the overall trend for NZDUSD is bearish. Prices are in a falling channel in the lower half of the Bollinger Band. The market is below the 200-day moving average so this highlights the bearish bias. As long [..]

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European Session – Sterling boosted after BoE minutes, dollar rises on upbeat home sales

Posted on July 22, 2015 at 2:36 pm GMT

Sterling was one of the best performing major currencies today as it reacted positively to the minutes from the Bank of England’s latest policy meeting. Although Monetary Policy Committee members were unanimous in their decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.50%, the minutes indicated that more members were leaning towards a rate hike. The pound began rising against the dollar early in the European session to a high of 1.5623 and then briefly spiked higher after the release of [..]

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Bank of England minutes reveal gradual turn towards rate hike- as expected

Posted on July 22, 2015 at 9:35 am GMT

The minutes from the Bank of England meeting of 8 July, showed that Monetary Policy Committee members were unanimous in their decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.50%. Although on its own this might have disappointed sterling longs, the other details contained in the minutes were positive for the pound as they were in the direction of higher interest rates in the future. There was some speculation that a 7-2 vote could arise (i.e. 7 members in favor of [..]

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Asian Session – US dollar continues to trade weak on profit-taking

Posted on July 22, 2015 at 7:39 am GMT

The US dollar continued to find itself under pressure during Wednesday’s Asian trading in the absence of significant US data releases so far this week. The euro was particularly strong versus the greenback, climbing all the way up to 1.0968 as it rebounded from its 2-month low just above 1.08 on Tuesday’s Asian session. Greece managed to repay its 2 billion euros debt that was in arrears against the International Monetary Fund and there was a 2-notch upgrade of the [..]

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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD tests 1.5600, bullish above 200-day MA

Posted on July 22, 2015 at 7:20 am GMT

GBPUSD has been struggling to move higher and has been consolidating between 1.5528 and 1.5674 and is basically trapped between the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines. If prices break below 1.5529 there is scope to drop back towards the 200-day moving average around the key psychological 1.5400 level. There is currently decent resistance at the highs last week at 1.5674, which needs to be broken to retarget the June 18 peak at 1.5829. A move above this peak would see a [..]

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European Session – Euro rebounds to test 1.09

Posted on July 21, 2015 at 2:31 pm GMT

Due to the lack of Eurozone and US economic data releases today, most major currency pairs consolidated during the European session. The euro was an exception and bounced higher against the dollar following a choppy Asian session, to reach a high of 1.0916. Sentiment for the euro has improved since Greece is much less of a concern for the markets now that the country’s bridge financing is in place, IMF and ECB loans were paid on Monday and the immediate [..]

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Technical Analysis – Gold rebounds from 5.5-year lows but outlook is bearish

Posted on July 21, 2015 at 2:16 pm GMT

Gold bounced back above the 1100 level on Tuesday after plunging to a 5.5-year low on Monday. But with prices only halfway from recovering Monday’s losses, the indicators are still looking very bearish for gold. RSI is pointing upwards but the rise hasn’t been enough to take it out of oversold territory, suggesting that further rebound may be due for gold in the near term. If gold is able to sustain today’s gains, it will likely meet resistance at the [..]

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RBA minutes point to steady rates but RBNZ likely to cut again

Posted on July 21, 2015 at 11:07 am GMT

The Australian dollar touched a new 6-year low on Monday of 0.7327 against the US dollar as global commodity prices continue to take a battering amid oversupply and weak demand. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has already cut its cash rate twice this year by 0.25% each time to 2%. The Australian dollar has depreciated substantially against the US dollar – by 9.8% in the past year, which has helped cushion the Australian economy from the collapse in commodity [..]

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