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Technical Analysis – EURUSD rally pushes it above 100-day MA but outlook is neutral

Posted on July 27, 2015 at 12:27 pm GMT

EURUSD rallied over 100 pips from 1.0968 to 1.1113 today before retreating to around 1.1065. With RSI crossing above 50 and the stochastics still positively aligned, the intra-day bias is bullish. But with prices having found resistance at the 50-day moving average at today’s intra-day high of 1.1113, EURUSD may struggle to rise above the Ichimoku cloud. Failure to break above the cloud means the pair is likely to continue consolidating in the medium term. Other indicators are looking mixed [..]

Asian Session – Dollar pulls back ahead of Fed decision; euro jumps back above 1.10

Posted on July 27, 2015 at 7:20 am GMT

The dollar index started Monday’s Asian session lower as it was dragged down by losses on Wall Street on Friday. Falling bond yields also weighed on the dollar. Weaker-than-expected new home sales figures from Friday did not help the greenback either, which overshadowed strong manufacturing PMI data. The dollar has been steadily weakening against the yen for the past week and was trading at 123.45 in late Asian session. The euro, which has been benefiting from the pause in the [..]

Technical Analysis – NZDUSD bearish in falling Bollinger Band

Posted on July 27, 2015 at 6:59 am GMT

NZDUSD maintains a downside bias, with scope to retest the lower Bollinger Band at 0.6496 (a six-year low). The RSI remains in bearish territory below 50, although it is trending sideways, which suggests consolidation in the market in the near-term. The overall market structure is bearish due to the bearish alignment of the Bollinger Bands which keep prices in a downward channel. The market tried to make a short-term recovery move but failed well ahead of the falling 20-day moving [..]

European Session – Euro weighed by soft PMIs, dollar loses strength on disappointing US home sales

Posted on July 24, 2015 at 2:37 pm GMT

The euro was weak today in reaction to softer PMI’s across the Euro area. Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI fell to 52.2 in July from 52.5 in June, against expectations that it would stay unchanged. Services PMI was also lower, dropping from 54.4 to 53.8, versus forecast of 54.2. The figures are still comfortably above 50 though, indicating expansion, but at a slower rate. The composite PMI came in at 53.7, down from June’s 54.2. German and French manufacturing and services [..]

Week Ahead – Fed meeting and US, UK Q2 GDP likely to heighten rate rise expectations

Posted on July 24, 2015 at 1:58 pm GMT

As monetary policy divergence between the US, UK and the Eurozone comes into focus again, all eyes will be on second quarter GDP data for the US and UK in the coming week, as well as the FOMC meeting where the Fed could hint at a September rate rise. The US will start the week with durable goods orders data out on Monday. Durable goods orders numbers have been mixed for much of the year but are expected to rise [..]

Eurozone PMI points to slow start to third quarter

Posted on July 24, 2015 at 10:22 am GMT

The Markit flash PMI for manufacturing and services activity in the Eurozone showed continued expansion in July. However, the strong momentum seen in the second quarter appears to be waning at the start of the third quarter. Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI fell to 52.2 in July from 52.5 in June, against expectations that it would stay unchanged. Services PMI was also lower, dropping from 54.4 to 53.8, versus forecast of 54.2. The figures are still comfortably above 50 though, indicating [..]

Asian Session – China PMI disappoints again sending aussie to another 6-year low

Posted on July 24, 2015 at 7:16 am GMT

The dollar continued to make modest gains in Asian trading following a limited rally on Thursday after the release of weekly jobless claims. Initial jobless claims came in at the lowest level since 1973 at 255k, versus expectations of 279k. The dollar reached a high of 124.04 against the yen in early Asian session before dropping to 123.89. Shares in China were higher on Friday despite disappointing manufacturing PMI data. The Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI came in significantly below forecasts at [..]

Technical Analysis – German Share Index looking to consolidate as it moves back into cloud

Posted on July 23, 2015 at 1:51 pm GMT

The German 30-share index (GER30) continued to slide for a third-day on Thursday as it fell back into the Ichimoku cloud. The index has been on a downward path after reaching a record high of 12433.40 on April 13. It managed to break out of the upper channel on July 13, finding resistance around the 11800 level. The near-term indicators are looking bearish with RSI falling towards 50 and the stochastics approaching 20. The 23.6% of the Fibonacci retracement level [..]

European Session – Euro briefly flirts 1.10 before falling as dollar rises on jobless claims data; pounds hurt by retail sales

Posted on July 23, 2015 at 1:48 pm GMT

The euro was one of the biggest movers out of the majors today as it jumped above the key 1.10 level to reach a one week high of 1.1017 by mid-European session trading. Data helped support the single currency after an unexpectedly large decline in Spain’s unemployment rate. Also supporting the euro was the successful Greek parliamentary vote late on Wednesday. The passage of a second set of reform measures now turns the focus towards the start of negotiations over [..]

Pound tumbles after UK retail sales unexpectedly fall in June

Posted on July 23, 2015 at 11:58 am GMT

Retail sales in the UK fell by 0.2% in June from the previous month as food and household goods sales declined during the month. The unexpected fall confounded estimates that sales would rise by 0.4%. The annual rate fell to 4% from 4.7%, against estimates it would rise to 4.8%. On the positive side, May’s figure was revised upwards, with the month-on-month change revised to 0.3% from 0.2%. Excluding fuel, sales were also down by 0.2%. On a quarterly basis, [..]

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