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Asian Session – Dollar steadier after jobs data; Weak China exports raises stimulus hopes

Posted on August 10, 2015 at 8:03 am GMT

The dollar stabilized after its brief surge on Friday that followed another set of robust jobs growth. Nonfarm payrolls for July were slightly below expectations at 215k but at above 200k, maintained the overall healthy pace of jobs growth seen over the past year. The greenback was mostly flat in Monday’s Asian trading and near Friday’s lows as the euro recovered to back above 1.09 dollars to 1.0963 dollars in late Asian session. Against the yen, the dollar was firmer, [..]

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European Session – Dollar surges on nonfarm payrolls data; euro back below 1.09

Posted on August 7, 2015 at 2:34 pm GMT

US Nonfarm payrolls were slightly below expectations in July, coming in at 215k, against estimates of 225k. But the previous month’s figure was revised higher to 231k from 223k. The unemployment rate was stable at 5.3% in July. Average hourly earnings was slightly below estimates of 2.3%, coming in at 2.1%, due to downward revisions to previous months’ numbers and showing little sign of accelerating. But the dollar surged ahead despite the mixed data as markets view the job numbers [..]

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Week Ahead – Eurozone Q2 GDP and UK jobs in focus

Posted on August 7, 2015 at 12:58 pm GMT

The euro is likely to come back into the spotlight next week after a lull in recent weeks. The Eurozone will see its first estimate of second quarter growth and UK unemployment data will also be closely watched, in addition to US retail sales and various industrial production data. The week will get off to a quiet start with only inflation data from China likely to interest the markets. CPI data out on Sunday is expected to show Chinese inflation [..]

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Technical Analysis – NZDUSD downtrend loses steam but outlook still bearish

Posted on August 7, 2015 at 9:27 am GMT

NZDUSD is attempting to move away from the new 6-year low it set on August 5 but the intra-day upside bias is weak. RSI is rising but still below 50. The stochastics are also rising but appear to be slowing as the %D line diverts away from the %K line. The medium term outlook remains bearish as the pair trade below the moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud. But with the tenkan-sen line moving sideways to align with the kijun-sen [..]

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Asian Session – Dollar steady ahead of jobs report; BoJ maintains policy and outlook

Posted on August 7, 2015 at 8:08 am GMT

The Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged on Friday at the end of its two-day meeting as was expected. The Bank said that Japan’s economy continues to recover moderately and its quantitative and qualitative monetary easing program has been exerting its intended effects. But with inflation expected to remain near 0% in the near term, the Bank said it will continue with its current policy until price increases reach its 2% target. Economic growth is forecast to have [..]

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European Session – Pound down on less hawkish BoE; euro and dollar broadly steady

Posted on August 6, 2015 at 2:53 pm GMT

The Bank of England’s ‘Super Thursday’ got underway on Thursday as the UK central bank released its quarterly inflation report, MPC decision and meeting minutes simultaneously for the first time. Following recent hawkish comments from BoE governor Mark Carney that the decision to raise interest rates would come into a ‘sharper relief’ by the end of the year, markets had widely interpreted this as a signal that the Bank is getting ready to hike rates. However, in today’s press conference, [..]

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Pound tumbles on MPC vote as BoE cuts inflation forecast

Posted on August 6, 2015 at 1:50 pm GMT

The Bank of England’s latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting minutes showed that the committee voted 8-1 to keep interest rates unchanged, against expectations of a 7-2 split. The surprise dovishness was reinforced by the Bank’s quarterly inflation report published simultaneously with the minutes, which showed the inflation forecast being cut to 0.3% for 2015 from 0.7% in May’s forecast. The lower inflation outlook comes despite UK economic growth being upgraded to 2.8% for 2015 from 2.5% in May’s forecast. [..]

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Technical Analysis – GBPJPY finds resistance above 195; eyes new 7-year highs

Posted on August 6, 2015 at 9:26 am GMT

GBPJPY has been moving in a range following a correction after hitting a 7-year high of 195.87 on June 24. But yesterday’s rally saw it move further upwards from the Ichimoku cloud, strengthening the bullish momentum. The intra-day bias has slightly eased though, as RSI holds steady around 62 and the stochastics have only just turned positive after the bearish cross a few days ago. The pair found resistance around 195.24, not too far from the June high of 195.87, [..]

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Asian Session – Pound steady ahead of BoE’s ‘Super Thursday’; dollar off highs

Posted on August 6, 2015 at 7:57 am GMT

The US dollar was slightly off its highs from Wednesday’s near 4-month highs against a basket of currencies. Comments from Fed policymakers Jerome Powell and Dennis Lockhart gave conflicting signals on the possibility of a September rate increase. Lockhart sounded more hawkish, saying the economy was ‘in good shape’ and that September would be an appropriate time for a move. But Powell reiterated the Fed’s data dependency stance saying no decision has been made. The dollar fluctuated during the course [..]

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European Session – Euro back above 1.09 as dollar seesaws on Fed comments and mixed data

Posted on August 5, 2015 at 2:05 pm GMT

After having a strong start to the day on the back of hawkish comments from Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, the dollar went into sharp reverse on contradicting remarks from another Fed official. On Tuesday, Lockhart had raised expectations of a September rate rise by saying that “the economy is ready and it is an appropriate time to make a change” with regards to the September meeting. But on Wednesday, Fed governor Jerome Powell said that “nothing has been decided” [..]

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