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Technical Analysis – EURUSD in neutral but bearish below 200-day MA

Posted on August 17, 2015 at 6:48 am GMT

EURUSD has reverted back to a neutral trend. The flat tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines and the horizontal Ichimoku cloud support the lack of direction in the market. EURUSD has been in a broad range between 1.0818 and 1.1466 in the last four months and the 1.1000 is an important psychological level which the pair has been pivoting around. This level also provides strong support, which if breached would take the market down towards the 12-year low of 1.0461 reached on [..]

European Session – Greek Parliament passes bailout vote, Eurozone CPI and GDP have little impact in quiet market

Posted on August 14, 2015 at 10:46 am GMT

The market’s focus was on the Eurozone today as GDP and inflation data were out as well as results of the Greek Parliamentary vote on the third bailout package. As was expected, the Parliament voted to approve the 85 billion euro financial aid package but this has caused a widening rift within Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ Syriza Party. As a result, Tsipras has called a confidence vote for later in August or September, after Greece makes a loan payment [..]

Week Ahead – Busy week for markets in the middle of holiday season

Posted on August 14, 2015 at 10:15 am GMT

Next week will feature a significant number of key events and data releases that are likely to have an impact on foreign exchange markets. From Japanese GDP to UK and US inflation, minutes of monetary policy meetings from Australia and the US and business sentiment surveys, are all likely to be closely watched for clues – particularly with respect to future monetary policy moves. Starting the week will be Japanese GDP – expected to show a contraction of 0.5% during [..]

Asian session: US dollar steadies while Kiwi drops on retail sales miss

Posted on August 14, 2015 at 7:20 am GMT

The US dollar managed to stabilize during the Asian session as there was no further devaluation out of China and the previous day’s economic data helped the greenback. In China, the central bank fixed the dollar / yuan exchange rate mid-point at a slightly lower level; implying that the currency would not continue to devalue. This brought some calm in financial markets following the previous days’ uncertainty and volatility. Specifically, the PBOC was looking like defending the area around the [..]

Technical Analysis – USDTRY hits new record high, strong bullish outlook

Posted on August 14, 2015 at 6:46 am GMT

USDTRY is strongly bullish after making a new higher high and hitting a fresh record high of 2.8413 on Friday. The pair broke above the previous peak of 2.8086 hit on June 8. The short-term outlook remains positive and there is scope to target a key psychological level of 2.8580 since the market is above the daily Ichimoku cloud and the tenkan-sen line is above the kijun-sen line. The RSI is in bullish territory and is trending upwards. However it [..]

European Session – Solid US retail sales lift dollar, Turkish Lira at record low on political uncertainty

Posted on August 13, 2015 at 2:03 pm GMT

The US dollar rebounded today after benefiting from a calmer yuan situation as China eased concerns in the markets after a third consecutive day of the Chinese currency’s devaluation. China’s central bank said there was no basis for further depreciation. The return of risk appetite as well as the release of upbeat US retail sales data also helped support the greenback. US retail sales rose slightly in July, giving investors optimism for a Fed rate hike in September. July retail [..]

PBOC verbal intervention soothes markets, says no further devaluation

Posted on August 13, 2015 at 10:10 am GMT

The Chinese yuan moved lower for a third consecutive day on Thursday but was more stable compared to the more aggressive and quick moves in the past two days. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the reference rate between the US dollar and the yuan at 6.4010. The prior fix on Wednesday was at 6.3306. The yuan saw the biggest fall on Tuesday of almost 2% when the central bank raised the midpoint from 6.1162 to 6.2298, roiling markets [..]

Asian Session – US dollar rebounds from heavy losses following today’s less aggressive yuan depreciation

Posted on August 13, 2015 at 7:23 am GMT

The Chinese currency was again in focus during Thursday’s Asian session, as the yuan’s central parity against the US dollar was set 1.1% lower than yesterday’s rate. Although the People’s Bank of China sought to reassure that there were no fundamental reasons that would drive the yuan even lower, there were also some reports that some members inside the Chinese government are pushing for an even bigger devaluation. Specifically a 10% devaluation was likely according to some sources, although analysts [..]

Technical Analysis – AUDUSD at new 6-year low, bearish bias remains

Posted on August 13, 2015 at 6:54 am GMT

AUDUSD fell to a fresh 6-year low of 0.7214 on Wednesday but recovered to the 0.74 handle early on Thursday. Immediate resistance is expected at 0.7438, yesterday’s high and above this at 0.7532, the April low. A fall from current levels to break below the multi-year low of 0.7214 would accelerate a further decline to the 0.7140 area, which is the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the upleg from 0.6008 to 1.1078. In the bigger picture, AUDUSD has been in a [..]

European Session – Yuan devaluation hits dollar on fears of Fed rate hike delay; euro breaches 1.11

Posted on August 12, 2015 at 2:17 pm GMT

The Chinese yuan came off earlier lows to stand 1% higher in late European session at 6.3858 per dollar. China’s central bank reduced the yuan’s midpoint by another 1.6% on Wednesday as it seeks to boost the country’s flagging economy. Weaker-than-expected industrial production and retail sales data underscored the slowing growth outlook for China’s economy. The Japanese yen was among the few Asian currency that did not slide on the latest move by Chinese authorities as other Asian currencies, such [..]

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