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European Session – Dollar remains soft with little boost from rising US existing home sales, pound hurt by UK retail sales

Posted on August 20, 2015 at 2:10 pm GMT

There were no data out of Europe today with the only headlines being on Greece. The country made a debt payment today to the ECB worth 3.2 billion euro with new bailout money it received from its creditors. The first installment of the total 86 billion euro bailout package was received on time by the Greek government. Political risk in Greece remains elevated though, as rumors continue to center on the risk of snap elections in September. With the Greek [..]

Technical Analysis – US Oil Futures at 6½-year lows; looking bearish

Posted on August 20, 2015 at 1:30 pm GMT

US oil futures hit a 6½-year low of $40.48 on Thursday as prices remain on the downtrend that’s been in progress since late June. There is very little upside momentum at the moment but with both the RSI and the stochastics in oversold territory, a bounce back in prices is likely in the near term. The medium-term outlook remains bearish though as prices drift further below the moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud. A key support level to watch out [..]

UK retail sales rise less than expected putting pound under pressure

Posted on August 20, 2015 at 10:21 am GMT

UK retail sales in July rose by a much smaller amount than expected, increasing by 0.1% on the month, against forecasts of a 0.4% increase. On a 12-month basis, sales volumes were up 4.2% from a year ago, against estimates of a 4.4% rise. But the soft headline figure was mostly due to lower fuel sales as retail sales excluding automotive fuel showed a healthier rise of 0.4% in July compared to June, in-line with estimates. The annual rate also [..]

Asian Session – Fed says conditions for rate hike ‘approaching’ but worried about low inflation, dollar falls

Posted on August 20, 2015 at 7:45 am GMT

The dollar fell against major currencies on Wednesday after the Fed published the minutes of the FOMC meeting in July. The Fed sounded concerned on the persistently low inflation levels and was only ‘reasonably confident’ that inflation would return to the 2% target in the medium term. Some within the FOMC were more doubtful though on the inflation outlook, citing downside risks such as further falls in oil and commodity prices, further appreciation of the dollar and the lack of [..]

Technical Analysis- USDTRY hits new record high, breaks key level at 3.0000

Posted on August 20, 2015 at 7:16 am GMT

USDTRY hit a new record high of 3.0014 on Thursday. The pair has made an impressive rally since August 13. Breaking such a key psychological level of 3.00 strengthens the upside momentum. Technical indicators are extremely bullish. We can see the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines are positively aligned and rising. The 200-day moving average is also rising. RSI is in bullish territory and is trending upwards. However it has reached overbought levels which warns of some possible consolidation ahead. Support [..]

US inflation softer than expected; dollar bounces back after brief drop

Posted on August 19, 2015 at 2:13 pm GMT

US inflation showed little sign of accelerating in July as the annual rate of CPI rose by 0.2%, in-line with estimates and only slightly higher than June’s 0.1%. The month-on-month change was below estimates as prices rose by just 0.1%, the slowest rate since April, against forecasts of a 0.2% rise. The core CPI rate, which excludes food and energy items, held steady at 1.8%, which was within estimates. But the month-on-month rate came in at 0.1%, below forecasts of [..]

European Session – German Parliament approves Greek bailout, US inflation rises at slower rate

Posted on August 19, 2015 at 1:53 pm GMT

Currency markets were mostly quiet during today’s European session. The main news out of Europe was the result of the German parliament vote, which was in favour of a third Greek bailout package worth 86 billion euros. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, despite having doubts the third bailout plan would work, urged German lawmakers to pass it, resulting in 454 lawmakers voting ‘yes’. However, there were 113 ‘no’ votes and 18 abstentions. Dissenters came mainly from Chancellor Angela Merkel’s own [..]

Technical Analysis – NZDJPY outlook remains bearish but bias is neutral

Posted on August 19, 2015 at 9:30 am GMT

NZDJPY has been stuck in a range between 80.44 and 83.26 since it halted its April-July downtrend. The outlook remains bearish but there are some indications of extending its range-bound trading into the medium term. Prices are below the moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting ongoing bearish momentum. But the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines have begun moving sideways along the center of the recent range. The Ichimoku cloud is also starting to shift towards a sideways pattern, signalling a [..]

Asian Session – China shares reverse earlier slide; dollar down ahead of FOMC minutes

Posted on August 19, 2015 at 7:28 am GMT

Shares in China extended their losses for a second day after falling 6% on Tuesday. The main indices were down over 4% earlier in the session but managed to bounce back towards the close. The Shanghai SE Composite was down by 0.4%, while the CSI 300 index was up 0.1% in late Asian trading. The latest sell-off was triggered by concerns that the Chinese government is in no hurry to intervene with additional stimulus measures. Instead, the People’s Bank of [..]

Technical Analysis – GBPUSD bullish above cloud and 200-day moving average

Posted on August 19, 2015 at 7:11 am GMT

GBPUSD has mostly been range-bound since the rebound from 1.5329. The pair has however managed to rise above the daily Ichimoku cloud which gives the market a bullish intra-day bias. Tuesday’s high reached 1.5716. An important resistance level now comes in at 1.5720. To the downside, the cloud will give support at 1.5570. A fall below this and back below the cloud would shift the bias to the downside. Looking at the bigger picture, GBPUSD seems to have been making [..]

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