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ECB cuts Eurozone inflation and growth outlook; stresses willingness to act

Posted on September 3, 2015 at 2:48 pm GMT

The European Central Bank (ECB) kept its key interest rates unchanged at its latest monetary policy meeting. The size of its asset purchase program was also kept unchanged at €60 billion per month. However, the ECB announced changes to the limit of the share of a country’s debt issue that the central bank can purchase. It increased the issue share limit from 25% to 33%, following a review of the program after the first six months of purchases. In its [..]

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European Session – Euro tumbles below 1.12 as dovish Draghi talks of downside risks to Eurozone

Posted on September 3, 2015 at 2:11 pm GMT

The highlight of the European session was the ECB press conference given by President Mario Draghi. The euro tumbled fast below 1.12 against the dollar as soon as the ECB chief started talking and sent a strong dovish message to the markets. The ECB left the refinancing rate at 0.05% as expected and the deposit rate at 0.20%, also as anticipated. There was little reaction to this as markets preferred to focus on the press conference where Draghi highlighted the [..]

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Technical Analysis – EURJPY still consolidating but bias turns bearish

Posted on September 3, 2015 at 9:26 am GMT

EURJPY is still in consolidation mode but the near term bias is bearish as prices have dipped below the Ichimoku cloud. RSI below 50 points to further weakness but the stochastics may be about to turn positive after being stuck in oversold territory since late August. Prices need to reclaim the 136 handle, which coincides with the 200-day moving average and the bottom of the cloud. This would sustain the current sideways trend in the medium term. The 50% Fibonacci [..]

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Asian Session – Dollar supported by higher equities; euro awaits ECB meeting

Posted on September 3, 2015 at 7:26 am GMT

A rebound in equities on Thursday helped the dollar extend its gains in early Asian trading today but fell back slightly in late Asian session. The Dow Jones Industrial and S&P500 both closed up 1.8%, lifting shares in Tokyo. Stock markets in China remain closed on Thursday and Friday to commemorate the end of WWII. ADP Employment figures and factory orders both missed expectations on Wednesday but did little to guide the market on the Fed’s next move so had [..]

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Technical Analysis – EURUSD turns bearish after fall below 200-day MA

Posted on September 3, 2015 at 7:07 am GMT

EURUSD technicals have turned bearish today after prices fell below the daily kijun-sen line and below the 200-day moving average. The daily Ichimoku cloud is expected to provide support around 1.1120, while a fall back below the cloud will give scope to retest the key psychological level at 1.1000. But a fall below the multi-year low of 1.0461 is needed to reinforce the long term bearish market structure that began from the decline in May 2014 from 1.3992. [..]

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European Session – Sterling falls to three-month low after UK construction PMI, euro back below 1.13

Posted on September 2, 2015 at 2:11 pm GMT

The main data point during the European session was UK construction PMI, which rose to 57.3 in August from 57.1 in July. While this indicated solid growth it was below the 57.5 that was forecast. The data was probably not enough to change recent views from investors who have pushed back the timing of the first Bank of England rate hike well into next year. Sterling fell against the dollar to reach its lowest level in almost three months at [..]

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Technical Analysis – US oil futures unable to hold above 50-day MA; bias is neutral

Posted on September 2, 2015 at 1:23 pm GMT

US oil futures are attempting another rally on Wednesday after tumbling 8% on Tuesday. Prices met resistance around the 50-day moving average after struggling to rise much above it in the previous two days. Medium-term outlook remains bearish but the near term bias is looking mixed as RSI has tipped upwards above 50 after yesterday’s slide, indicating a small gain in momentum. However, the %K line of the stochastic oscillator has reversed and dipped back below overbought territory after a [..]

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Aussie at fresh 6-year low after Australian GDP slows more than expected

Posted on September 2, 2015 at 9:58 am GMT

GDP growth in Australia slowed to the lowest level since 2013 in the second quarter of the year as China’s economic woes appeared to be putting a strain on the Australian economy. Second quarter growth was up 0.2% from the previous quarter, below estimates that it would expand by 0.5%. This compares with an unusually robust first quarter when the economy grew by 0.9%. Compared with a year earlier, GDP was up 2.0%. As expected, the main downward effect on [..]

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Asian Session – Dollar rebounds but aussie drops to new 6-year lows on poor GDP data

Posted on September 2, 2015 at 7:26 am GMT

The dollar moved higher in Asian trading as it attempted to cut Tuesday’s losses on the back of weaker-than-expected manufacturing survey. The ISM manufacturing index fell to a two-year low in August, adding to the poor PMI data from China earlier in the day. The greenback started the session at a low of 119.21 yen and climbed to a high of 120.46 yen before easing to 119.99 yen in late Asian trading. Shares across Asia recovered from earlier lows. The [..]

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Technical Analysis – USDJPY bearish below 200-day MA, testing critical 120 level

Posted on September 2, 2015 at 6:47 am GMT

USDJPY has broken back below its 200-day moving average at 120.75. This accelerated a sharp fall yesterday. Meanwhile the fall below the daily Ichimoku cloud on August 24 shifted the bias back to bearish. RSI remains in bearish territory below 50 suggesting that upside momentum is quite weak. In the immediate term there appears to be some consolidation around the key psychological level of 120.00 as there is some indecision in the market as to which direction to go. Immediate [..]

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