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Technical Analysis – NZDUSD tumbles, bearish outlook below 0.7000

Posted on September 10, 2015 at 7:23 am GMT

NZDUSD collapsed to 0.6256 early on Thursday after the RBNZ rate cut. Any move higher would likely find resistance at the kijun-sen line and yesterday’s high of 0.6424. To the downside, a break below this week’s low of 0.6242 would see a retest of the 6-year low of 0.6139. A fall below this trough would and accelerate a further decline. The technical indicators are supporting the bearish outlook. The daily Ichimoku cloud is falling and the tenkan-sen is below the [..]

European Session – Pound recovers after soft UK data, Canadian dollar gains after BoC holds rates

Posted on September 9, 2015 at 2:30 pm GMT

The main data out during the European session was on UK industrial production and trade data, both of which proved to be disappointing and raised concerns about the health of the UK economy. UK industrial production fell 0.4% m/m in July compared to the forecast of a 0.1% increase. Manufacturing production fell by an even larger amount, declining by 0.8% m/m, against estimates of a 0.2% rise. Meanwhile, the UK trade deficit also widened sharply in July to £11.1 billion [..]

Technical Analysis – US benchmark index gains momentum but outlook bearish

Posted on September 9, 2015 at 1:16 pm GMT

The US benchmark index rallied for a third day on Wednesday but it found resistance around 1992, which was a previous resistance on August 28. Upside momentum in the near term remains strong with the stochastics positively aligned just below the overbought level. RSI is also trending up but has yet to rise above 50. With prices below the Ichimoku cloud and the 200-day moving average, the medium-term outlook remains bearish. A stronger rally to above the 200-day moving average [..]

Pound slides after weak UK manufacturing and trade data

Posted on September 9, 2015 at 11:22 am GMT

It was another bad month for UK industry in July as output fell by 0.4% month-on-month against estimates that it would increase by 0.1%. Manufacturing production fell by an even larger amount, dropping by 0.8% on the month, against estimates of a 0.2% rise. Year-on-on year, manufacturing output turned negative, falling by 0.5%, but total industrial production was still up on the year, rising by 0.8%. A 6.7% jump in mining and quarrying output contributed to the slightly better performing [..]

Asian Session – Dollar holds above 120 yen as global equities rebound strongly

Posted on September 9, 2015 at 7:23 am GMT

The dollar rose against most major currencies in Wednesday’s Asian session on reduced risk aversion. Strong German exports data on Tuesday, which hit record levels in July, boosted risk appetite, while a larger-than-expected drop in August imports in China raised hopes that Chinese authorities would announce further stimulus measures to boost domestic demand. A statement by China’s Ministry of Finance of a more proactive fiscal policy supported this view. The improved sentiment lifted US and European stocks on Tuesday. The [..]

Technical Analysis – AUDUSD bounces but remains in descending channel

Posted on September 9, 2015 at 6:56 am GMT

AUDUSD bounced to 0.7069 early on Wednesday. The intra-day bias is bullish but the pair remains within a descending channel on the daily chart. Prices are also below the tenkan-sen line, which is capping Wednesday morning’s bounce. Above this barrier the next resistance comes in at the 0.7098 level, which is the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the upleg from 0.6008 to 1.1078. To the downside, support comes in at Friday’s low of 0.6906, a more than 6 year low. The [..]

European Session – Sterling rallies, euro supported by positive data

Posted on September 8, 2015 at 2:30 pm GMT

The British pound, Australian and Canadian dollars were all up against the greenback on improving risk appetite, while the so-called safe havens were weaker today, including the yen, Swiss Franc and even the euro. Sterling was one of the best performers out of the majors, rising for the second day against the dollar to reach a one-week high of 1.5411. On Friday it had reached a four-week low of 1.5162. There were no UK data releases today but the main [..]

Eurozone growth revised up on higher household spending and exports

Posted on September 8, 2015 at 2:23 pm GMT

Eurozone output received a boost on Tuesday as a surprise upward revision in GDP growth figures showed a broadening recovery across the euro area. Growth was revised up for both the first and second quarters of the year. The Eurozone economy expanded by 0.5% q/q in the first quarter, versus initial estimates of 0.4%, and by 0.4% q/q in the second quarter, versus 0.3% in the first estimate. As a result of the revisions, euro area GDP stood 1.5% higher [..]

Japan GDP contracts less than expected but China weighs on outlook

Posted on September 8, 2015 at 11:44 am GMT

Japan’s economy contracted less than initially estimated in the second quarter of the year, according to the latest data. GDP shrank by 0.3% in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, up from previous estimates of a 0.4% contraction. Estimates were for GDP to be revised slightly down from -1.6% to -1.8% on an annualized basis. The upward revision to quarterly growth was mainly due to higher inventories. The improvement in inventories increased its contribution to GDP growth to [..]

Asian Session – Dollar attempts to reclaim 120 yen; China exports fall less than expected

Posted on September 8, 2015 at 7:25 am GMT

The dollar fell against the euro in late Asian session on Tuesday after weak Chinese trade data raised the euro’s safe-haven appeal. The euro jumped above the 1.12 handle to climb to 1.1217 dollars. But the yen gave up its earlier gains from increased risk aversion and the dollar rallied to 119.67 yen in late Asian trading after hitting a low of 118.84 yen. Chinese exports fell by 5.5% y/y in August, which was slightly better than estimates of a [..]

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