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Asian session – Dollar cements losses after surprisingly dovish Fed

Posted on September 18, 2015 at 7:44 am GMT

The US dollar was left nursing its losses during Friday’s Asian session, after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates at zero and adopted a more cautious tone with respect to future rate moves. The Fed cited global economic and financial developments in keeping interest rates at zero and forecast an even lower trajectory for future interest rate moves. Low inflation also played a role in the Fed’s decision. Weakness in emerging market economies and particularly China was specifically mentioned by [..]

Technical Analysis – Gold bearish below 200-day moving average and trend line

Posted on September 18, 2015 at 7:13 am GMT

Gold has found strong support at the key 1100 level and has consistently closed above it for a week. After reaching a high of 1135.16, prices are expected to consolidate around this level in the near-term. As long as gold remains above its 50-day moving average then upside momentum would hold. But any move higher would find resistance at the 100-day moving average around 1152 and also at the downtrend line. In the bigger picture, gold looks bearish, especially if [..]

Dollar drops on dovish Fed, rates kept unchanged

Posted on September 17, 2015 at 7:27 pm GMT

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at record lows amid increasing uncertainty in the global economy and stubbornly low interest rates in the US. The Fed statement was quite dovish as it lowered its long-term outlook for the US economy. Its forecasts for GDP growth in 2016 and 2017 were downgraded, while the Fed’s Funds Rate forecasts were also lowered to 3.5% compared to 3.75% at the previous policy meeting. Despite a resilient US recovery, the Federal Reserve Open [..]

European Session – Euro above 1.13, dollar mixed ahead of Fed

Posted on September 17, 2015 at 12:56 pm GMT

There was mixed trading in the currency markets today as investors awaited the all-important Federal Reserve policy decision. The dollar was higher against the yen but drifted down against the euro and sterling. Sterling rose against the dollar and broke above the key 1.55 level despite disappointing UK retail sales data for August. Headline sales rose 3.7% y/y vs. 3.8% expected, while sales ex-auto fuel rose 3.5% y/y versus 3.8% forecast. July readings were revised down for both series. Wednesday’s [..]

Swiss Franc rises after SNB maintains negative rates

Posted on September 17, 2015 at 9:53 am GMT

At its quarterly policy meeting on Thursday, the Swiss National Bank left the target range for the three-month LIBOR unchanged, between −1.25% and – 0.25%. The interest rate on sight deposits with the SNB remains at –0.75%. These rates were in line with expectations and the Swiss Franc strengthened after the announcement. In reaction to the news, the euro dropped to 1.0945 francs after having reached a high of 1.0976. The dollar fell to 0.9666 from 0.9718 francs. In a [..]

Asian Session – Dollar mixed ahead of key Fed rate decision

Posted on September 17, 2015 at 7:20 am GMT

The dollar was trading mixed during the Asian session, as it was weak against currencies such as the euro and the pound, but positive risk sentiment and rate hike expectations – eventually if not today – boosted it against the yen. The market appeared to be going into the Fed meeting expecting that rates will remain at zero. Even if the Fed refrains from raising interest rates however, a rate hike is highly likely before the end of the year. [..]

Technical Analysis – GBPUSD more bullish after breaking above 200-day MA

Posted on September 17, 2015 at 7:10 am GMT

After breaking above the 200-day moving average, GBPUSD has managed to remain above it and has found strong support from it. Currently prices are finding resistance at the 50-day moving average. Prices would have to clear this barrier and the Ichimoku cloud as well in order to see a sustained move higher towards the last high of 1.5818. The RSI has risen above 50 into bullish territory so there is scope for more upside momentum. For now support is at [..]

European Session – Pound lifted by UK jobs data, dollar drops after disappointing US inflation

Posted on September 16, 2015 at 2:22 pm GMT

Sterling received a boost after an upbeat UK employment report that showed the jobless rate unexpectedly fell to 5.5% in the three months to July, compared to 5.6% in the three months to June. Average weekly earnings rose by 2.9% in the three months to July, compared to a year ago, rising at their fastest pace in six years. Today’s data suggests that the economic recovery in the UK is picking up pace. This may put pressure on the Bank [..]

US inflation in line with estimates rounds up Fed’s economic picture

Posted on September 16, 2015 at 2:09 pm GMT

The release of US inflation for August rounded up the key indicators that the Federal Open Market Committee will have in front of it when deciding on whether to raise interest rates tomorrow. The main numbers were roughly in line with expectations, with only core inflation year-on-year slightly below what was expected. The year-on-year headline inflation rate was 0.2%, which confirmed the absence of inflation pressures in the economy. The core inflation rate came in much higher at 1.8%. While [..]

Sterling rallies on strong wage growth numbers

Posted on September 16, 2015 at 10:06 am GMT

Sterling received a boost after an upbeat UK employment report that showed the jobless rate unexpectedly fell and private-sector earnings rose at their fastest pace in six years. This suggests that the economic recovery is picking up pace. After the data was released at 08:30 GMT, the pound rallied to 1.5419 by 10:00 GMT, up from a pre-data low of 1.5329. The ILO unemployment rate fell to 5.5% in the three months to July, compared to 5.6% in the three [..]

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