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Dollar boosted after Fed policymakers raise prospects of 2015 rate increase

Posted on September 22, 2015 at 10:57 am GMT

After last week’s much-anticipated FOMC meeting struck a surprisingly more dovish tone than markets had expected, Fed officials have since been signalling that the decision to keep rates unchanged was a close call and a rate hike later this year remains a likelihood. The dollar index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of major currencies, fell to a 3½-week low following the FOMC statement last Thursday. The statement cited the downward pressure on inflation in the [..]

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Asian Session – Dollar rises after Fed officials make case for 2015 rate hike

Posted on September 22, 2015 at 7:19 am GMT

The dollar firmed slightly in Asian trading as it was supported by comments from Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart that interest rates are likely to go up this year. Speaking in Atlanta on Monday, Lockhart said he is ‘confident’ that interest rates will be raised later this year and that September’s decision was a ‘close call’. The comments are consistent with other Fed officials who voiced similar opinion in recent days. On Saturday, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said he [..]

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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD downside bias after falling back into descending channel

Posted on September 22, 2015 at 7:02 am GMT

AUDUSD fell back into the descending channel after its attempt to break out of it was short-lived. This has turned the bias back to the downside, especially since the RSI has fallen back below 50 into bearish territory. The upper channel line and the kijun-sen line are acting as resistance now at 0.7146. Support is at 0.7097, which is the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 0.6008 to 1.1078. An important support level lies at 0.7000, which if [..]

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European Session – Euro fades post-Greek election rally, back below 1.13

Posted on September 21, 2015 at 2:32 pm GMT

The euro weakened sharply against the dollar to break back below the key 1.1300 level. After a modest rally to a European session high of 1.1329 in the wake of the Greek election results, the euro fell back down to 1.1233. There seemed to be little lasting impact on the single currency after the Syriza win in Sunday’s elections when Alexis Tsipras regained his post as Prime Minister of Greece, ending political uncertainty in the country. Once the new coalition [..]

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Technical Analysis – EURGBP dips below 200-day MA but bullish outlook holds

Posted on September 21, 2015 at 1:35 pm GMT

EURGBP fell sharply for a second day taking it closer to the immediate support level provided by the Kijun-sen line at 0.7224. The intra-day bias is looking increasingly bearish with RSI and the stochastics dipping into oversold territory in the hourly chart. The pair had been consolidating between 0.7395 and 0.7240 since the end of August and today’s slide takes prices just below this range. The recent bullish momentum has weakened as prices have slipped sharply below the 200-day moving [..]

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Tsipras wins Greek election; tough reform decisions ahead

Posted on September 21, 2015 at 11:40 am GMT

Alexis Tsipras’ Syriza party won the most seats in Sunday’s Greek election, gaining a 35.5% share of the vote. The New Democracy party, which was running neck-and-neck with Syriza in the polls at the end of last week, won 28.1% share of the vote. Snap elections were called after Tsipras suffered large defections in his own party in protest of the reform measures agreed in the latest bailout. Speaking to supporters after the results, Tsipras said he felt ‘vindicated’ and [..]

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Asian Session – Dollar flat but euro firmer on Tsipras re-election

Posted on September 21, 2015 at 7:20 am GMT

The dollar was mostly flat on Monday as it held on to Friday’s gains when it bounced back from the losses after the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at record low levels on Thursday. The euro moved modestly higher in Asian trading following Syriza’s win in the Greek general election on Sunday. Earlier in the week, polls had indicated that Alexis Tsipras’ party was running neck-and-neck with the New Democracy party. Tsipras fell short of a majority and will need [..]

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Technical Analysis – EURUSD neutral on weekly, testing cloud base

Posted on September 21, 2015 at 7:00 am GMT

On the weekly chart, EURUSD has made some bullish developments since bouncing off a multi-year low of 1.0461. The tenkan-sen has crossed above the kijun-sen which is a bullish signal and the RSI is back above 50. The market has been probing the base of the weekly Ichimoku cloud but has been finding strong resistance there. The short-term outlook is neutral as the pair has been in a range since crossing above the key 1.1000 level in April and the [..]

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European Session – Euro rises above 1.14, sterling rally halted by dovish BoE Haldane

Posted on September 18, 2015 at 1:55 pm GMT

The euro continued to trade above 1.1400 on Friday as the dollar still suffered losses following the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday. The single currency reached a three-week high of 1.1459. It faded some gains to 1.1409 after dovish comments from European Central Bank Executive Board member Benoit Coeure who was speaking today in Paris. Coeure’s comments indicated some discomfort with the recent strength in the euro. He also mentioned the downside risks to the Eurozone [..]

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Week Ahead – Focus will be on Eurozone and China PMIs, Greece elections and Draghi

Posted on September 18, 2015 at 12:01 pm GMT

After a busy week, the following week will be relatively quieter in terms of data, which will give a chance for markets to digest the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates unchanged. The first event markets may choose to look at will be the elections in Greece which will be held this Sunday. Opinion polls show the Syriza party and Conservative New Democracy party are neck and neck. The euro will be in focus although the election results will [..]

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