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Technical Analysis – GBPJPY dips back below 200-Day MA; outlook bearish

Posted on September 28, 2015 at 8:50 am GMT

GBPJPY has turned negative again after reversing the rally that took it above the 200-day moving average. The September 17 high of 188.29 remains on the upper end of the current trading range it has established since the end of August. Prices have been trading around the 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June upleg at 182.89 in the past three days. The nearest resistance is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 185.35, just above the 200-day moving [..]

Asian Session – Dollar flat in quiet trading as markets look to rest of the week for direction

Posted on September 28, 2015 at 7:35 am GMT

It was a quiet start to Asian trading on Monday with little economic data on today’s calendar and ahead of a week-long national holiday in China starting on October 1. The dollar was mixed, weakening slightly against the yen but making limited gains against the euro. Last week’s upwardly revised US GDP figures for the second quarter supported hawkish comments by several Fed officials, including Fed Chair Janet Yellen who on Thursday raised expectations of a 2015 rate hike. The [..]

Technical Analysis – German Share Index continues retreat from all time high

Posted on September 28, 2015 at 7:10 am GMT

The German share index continues to retreat from its all-time high of 12433 reached in April this year. Looking at the long term chart, support lies at the August low of 9318. A break below this would shift the bias to a more bearish sentiment. The tenkan-sen has crossed below the kijun-sen line and the market is now below the weekly Ichimoku cloud, which are bearish signals. Momentum is negative as well, and RSI is below 50 in bearish territory. [..]

US GDP revised up again in Q2 on stronger consumer spending

Posted on September 25, 2015 at 2:17 pm GMT

US economic growth was revised higher again in the second quarter of the year. The third estimate of GDP growth in the second quarter was revised up from 3.7% to 3.9% on an annualized basis. This comes after the second estimate was revised higher from 2.3% to 3.7% back in August. Forecasts were for GDP growth to stay unrevised. The upward revision was attributed mainly to stronger consumer spending but higher construction also drove growth during the period. Personal consumption [..]

European Session – Dollar pokes 121 yen after upwardly revised US Q2 GDP data

Posted on September 25, 2015 at 2:03 pm GMT

The dollar was broadly stronger on Friday as the market’s focus turned to the possibility of a Fed rate hike before the end of this year, following a more upbeat speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday. The euro fell back into the 1.11 handle against the dollar, after having approached 1.13 yesterday. Yellen’s comments accelerated a decline to a low of 1.1115 today. The diverging monetary policies between the ECB and the Fed are taking hold and putting [..]

Week Ahead – China PMI and US jobs in focus, plus more from Yellen

Posted on September 25, 2015 at 11:32 am GMT

The US economy is likely to remain in the spotlight for a second week as key data on employment and consumption expenditure is out, and a number of Fed officials are due to speak including Yellen herself. Data from Japan and China will also come into focus as markets watch for signs of a slowdown in the region’s two largest economies. US personal spending and personal income is released along with the PCE price index on Monday. Personal consumption expenditure, [..]

Asian Session – Dollar up as Yellen expects rates to rise later this year

Posted on September 25, 2015 at 7:47 am GMT

Fed Chair Janet Yellen put a 2015 rate hike back on the agenda yesterday after markets had moved back their expectations of a rate rise this year to early 2016 following last week’s FOMC meeting. Speaking at the University of Massachusetts, Yellen said that she expects the various headwinds to economic growth to fade and for inflation to gradually move back to 2%. She therefore judges it appropriate for the Fed to raise its target range of the federal funds [..]

Technical Analysis – EURAUD neutral, bullish outlook remains

Posted on September 25, 2015 at 7:24 am GMT

EURAUD remains neutral for the moment. After hitting a high of 1.6582 on August 24, the pair has been trading within a range of 1.5587 and 1.6188. The intraday bias is to the downside after price crossed below the tenkan-sen line. Support lies at the lower end of the range and resistance at the top of the range. A break below the lower range line would weaken the bulls. In the bigger picture, the uptrend from 1.3672 is still in [..]

European Session – Dollar drops ahead of Yellen speech, euro rises above 1.12

Posted on September 24, 2015 at 2:15 pm GMT

Risk-off trading was the dominant theme in the currency markets today, which was evident from the strengthening safe havens like the yen. Also other more liquid currencies like the euro and the dollar were in demand. As a result of risk aversion, commodity currencies suffered, like the Canadian and Australian dollars. With uncertainty as to when the Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates and with concerns over the global economy, investors are unwilling to take on risk. The [..]

Technical Analysis – Gold rallies above 1140 but outlook neutral

Posted on September 24, 2015 at 1:41 pm GMT

Gold continued to gain momentum on Thursday, climbing above 1140 and adding to Wednesday’s 0.5% gain. The top of the Ichimoku cloud has been providing resistance around 1138.40 as prices struggled to rise much past this level in recent days. But today’s clear break above it puts it within closer scope of the August 24 high of 1169.97. A sustained rise above the cloud is needed to strengthen the upside momentum and the medium-term outlook is likely to stay neutral [..]

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