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China manufacturing PMI indicate slowdown, raise stimulus expectations

Posted on October 1, 2015 at 8:19 am GMT

Data out of China on Thursday indicated that the world’s second largest economy continues to show signs of a slowdown. China’s official purchasing manager’s index (PMI) printed a reading of 49.8 in September, rising from a reading of 49.7 in August. A figure below 50 indicates contraction. Concerns that China’s manufacturing activity contracted for the second consecutive month in September increases expectations of more stimulus measures by the country’s central bank. These could come in the form of interest rate [..]

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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD rises back above 0.70 but outlook remains bearish

Posted on October 1, 2015 at 7:34 am GMT

AUDUSD rose back above the key 0.7000 level early on Thursday to reach a high of 0.7066. The intra-day bias is to the upside as the RSI is above 50 in bullish territory on the hourly chart. On the daily chart, the market is below the Ichimoku cloud and this highlights the underlying bearish bias. Also the 50-day moving average has crossed below the 100-day moving average. Meanwhile, prices have been in a downtrend since the May 2015 high of [..]

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Asian Session – Australian dollar rallies on China PMI, yen weak after Tankan

Posted on October 1, 2015 at 6:56 am GMT

Risk appetite was back in Thursday’s Asian session. Following from Wall Street’s close higher, Asian markets were also up. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 2.3 % and Australia’s S&P ASX 200 was up 1.7%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, the Shanghai Composite and the Shenzhen Composite were closed for a holiday. Helping support risk sentiment was data out of China. The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) came in at 49.8 in September, higher than August’s 49.7. It was expected to remain the [..]

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European Session – Euro weakens on Eurozone deflation concerns, dollar gains on upbeat ADP jobs

Posted on September 30, 2015 at 2:31 pm GMT

The euro weakened in the European session in reaction to economic data out of the Eurozone. German retail sales in August were unexpectedly weak. Retail sales dropped 0.4% month-on-month from July’s upwardly revised 1.6%. Other data on Eurozone inflation was also negative for the euro. Eurozone CPI turned negative in September, confounding estimates for no change. The flash CPI estimate fell to -0.1% year-on-year in September from 0.1% in August. Expectations were for inflation to ease to 0%. Core CPI [..]

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Technical Analysis – EURGBP declines from 5-month high; outlook positive

Posted on September 30, 2015 at 2:24 pm GMT

EURGBP fell sharply today from Tuesday’s 5-month high but the near-term bias is looking mixed. RSI is falling but comfortably above 50. However, the stochastics are in overbought territory and have just made a bearish cross, signalling further possible losses in the coming days. In the medium term, the outlook has turned bullish after prices climbed back above the 200-day moving average. A bullish cross of the 50-day moving average with the 100-day moving average also supports the positive picture. [..]

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Asian Session – Yen eases on equities rebound and weak data; Markets eye Yellen speech

Posted on September 30, 2015 at 12:09 pm GMT

Asian equities bounced back on Wednesday after a positive close on Wall Street on Tuesday. Positive consumer confidence figures from the US and the Eurozone eased fears of a global slowdown. The rebound in equity prices helped the dollar firm in today’s Asian trading, while the yen eased on improved risk sentiment. Weaker-than-expected industrial production figures also weighed on the yen. Preliminary figures for August industrial production in Japan showed output dropping by 0.5% month-on-month against estimates of a 1% [..]

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Asian Session – Dollar down as global equities fall sharply on growth fears

Posted on September 30, 2015 at 12:05 pm GMT

Global equities extended their rout on Monday with major European indices falling by over 2%, while the S&P500 in the US closed down by 2.6%. Asian stocks fell sharply today in response with Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index closing 4% lower and China’s Shanghai SE Composite index down 2.5% in late Asian trading. The latest selloff was triggered by data from China showing the biggest fall in industrial companies’ profits in four year, heightening fears of a deep slowdown. Meanwhile, the [..]

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Eurozone slips back into deflation in September

Posted on September 30, 2015 at 11:47 am GMT

Eurozone inflation fell back into negative territory in September, figures out today showed. The flash CPI estimate fell to -0.1% year-on-year in September from 0.1% in August. Expectations were for inflation to ease to 0%. Core CPI was in-line with estimates, coming in at 0.9% and unchanged from the previous month. As expected, the biggest downward pressure came from energy prices, which declined by 8.9% year-on-year. Food, alcohol and tobacco prices were up by 0.6% year-on-year, holding steady from the [..]

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European Session – Dollar falls versus yen on rate hike expectations after Dudley’s comments

Posted on September 28, 2015 at 2:28 pm GMT

The yen was the best performing currency due to risk off sentiment today. Investors are being cautious ahead of key risk events this week, which include US nonfarm payrolls and Chinese manufacturing PMI. The dollar started off the European session strong against the euro and the pound but then weakened across the board in early US session trading on comments by New York Fed President William Dudley. The euro traded below the key 1.1200 level and gradually weakened against the [..]

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US consumer spending in August beats estimates; dollar reverses initial gains

Posted on September 28, 2015 at 2:21 pm GMT

Personal consumption expenditure in the US rose by 0.4% month-on-month in August, maintaining the uninterrupted positive growth recorded since February. The figure compares with an upwardly revised 0.4% growth in July and beats expectations that it would come in at 0.3%. Personal income also continued to grow, rising by 0.3% month-on-month in August, though this was below estimates of 0.4% and down from July’s upwardly revised 0.5%. Spending on durable goods was up by 1.2% but slightly down from July’s [..]

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