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Technical Analysis – NZDJPY rises to 2-month high, pivoting critical Fibonacci level

Posted on October 16, 2015 at 6:41 am GMT

NZDJPY extended gains for a third straight day to reach a high of 81.90 early on Friday, a two-month high. Prices have reached a critical level now at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the downleg from 92.39 to 70.79. Prices are now pivoting this level at 81.57. There was consolidation around this level during July and August, which indicates the importance of this level. Momentum is still in bullish territory and the tenkan-sen is above the kijun-sen line. These [..]

European Session – Euro approaches 1.15 but reverses after ECB Nowotny comments and upbeat US data

Posted on October 15, 2015 at 2:16 pm GMT

The euro tested levels just shy of 1.15 before falling back after European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said the ECB must do more to stimulate the Eurozone economy. The central bank policymaker’s latest comments add weight to the potential for further easing as he said the ECB is “clearly missing its inflation target” and that “additional instruments are necessary”. The dovish remarks led to losses in the euro, After having reached a session high of 1.1494, the [..]

Dollar firms on stronger-than-expected inflation figures

Posted on October 15, 2015 at 1:59 pm GMT

US consumer prices were unchanged in September on an annual basis as CPI fell to 0.0% from 0.2% the prior month. This was slightly above estimates that consumer prices would fall by -0.1%. On a month-on-month basis, CPI fell for the second month in-a-row to -0.2% from -0.1%, in-line with estimates. The core rate, which excludes food and energy, was also stronger-than-expected. Core CPI edged up to 0.2% month-on-month, above estimates of that it would rise by 0.1%. The 12-month [..]

As AUD/USD retests 0.74, has the Australian dollar bottomed out?

Posted on October 15, 2015 at 10:50 am GMT

The Australian dollar has been depreciating since the spring of 2013 as global commodity prices have tumbled on softening demand, particularly from China. The Australian economy came out of the world financial crisis relatively unscathed as strong demand in China for commodities such as iron ore – Australia’s main export – drove economic growth. But a slowing economy in China, combined with the rout in oil prices and a strong US dollar, has pushed commodity prices to multi-year lows, hitting [..]

Asian Session – Aussie and yen shrug off weak data to gain against dollar

Posted on October 15, 2015 at 7:20 am GMT

Weak retail sales data continued to weigh on the dollar on Thursday as investors remain doubtful whether the Fed would raise interest rates by the end of the year. However, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker appeared unconvinced by the recent disappointing data. Lacker said on Wednesday that the weak data does little to change his outlook for the US economy. The dollar fell to 118.71 yen in late Asian trading, having risen to 119.16 yen earlier in the session. The [..]

Technical Analysis – EURUSD remains in corrective mode but intraday to the upside

Posted on October 15, 2015 at 7:05 am GMT

The intraday bias is on the upside for 1.1713 resistance (August 24 high). Prices have risen above the daily Ichimoku cloud. The tenkan-sen has crossed above the kijun-sen line so this is also a bullish signal. Meanwhile a crossover of the 50-day moving average above the 200-day moving average also supports a bullish move, while the rising RSI is indicative of upside momentum. Looking at the bigger picture though, the market is still in a corrective mode after a big [..]

US retail sales miss estimates sending dollar lower

Posted on October 14, 2015 at 2:14 pm GMT

Retail sales in the United States remained near stagnant for the second straight month in September as consumers appear to be cautious about their spending plans despite lower gasoline prices. Total retail sales rose by just 0.1% month-on-month in September and were up 2.4% from a year ago. Consensus estimates were for retail sales to rise by 0.2% after not recording any growth in the previous month, revised figures showed today. When excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales fell [..]

European Session – Euro rises to 1.14, sterling rallies on jobs data, weaker dollar

Posted on October 14, 2015 at 2:00 pm GMT

The US dollar was the main theme of the currency markets today as it remained under downside pressure. With doubts increasing about a Fed rate hike before year end, investors are finding little appetite for the greenback right now, especially after weak US data today. US retail sales missed on all fronts. The headline number showed sales edged up 0.1% in September after being flat in August. The market expected a 0.2% rise. Core retail sales, which exclude automobile sales, [..]

UK unemployment falls but wage growth softer-than-expected

Posted on October 14, 2015 at 10:02 am GMT

UK employment data was mixed today as the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell but average earnings disappointed. The ILO measure of unemployment dropped to a 7-year low of 5.4% in August from 5.5% the prior month. Analysts had forecast for the unemployment rate to stay unchanged at 5.5%. However, the jobless claims count, which is one month ahead of the ILO measure, rose by 4,600 in September against estimates of a rise of 1,000. Total employment in the economy continued to [..]

Asian Session – Kiwi boosted by Wheeler comments; dollar stuck near one-month lows

Posted on October 14, 2015 at 7:16 am GMT

The dollar was trading near one-month lows on Wednesday after more dovish comments from another Fed official further dampened expectations of a rate rise this year. Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo said in a CNBC interview that he does not think it would be appropriate to raise rates given the current economic outlook. Tarullo pointed to the current global disinflationary environment and said that more “tangible evidence” is needed that inflation will return to target. The dollar remained below the 120 yen [..]

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