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Technical Analysis – USDCAD rises back into cloud but remains neutral

Posted on November 6, 2015 at 7:56 am GMT

USDCAD has reversed its recent decline below the cloud and gained some upside momentum to close inside the cloud yesterday. Prices have risen above the tenkan-sen line which is now providing support at 1.3158. Technical signals are looking a bit more bullish – RSI has moved above 50 and MACD is attempting to rise above zero. But they are both horizontal so this suggests that the market will remain neutral in the near term. A decisive break above the cloud [..]

Bank of England dampens expectations of early rate rise; pound slumps

Posted on November 5, 2015 at 3:27 pm GMT

The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee (MPC) sounded more downbeat in its latest quarterly assessment of growth and inflation. As expected the MPC kept interest rates and its asset purchase size unchanged. However, many analysts were expecting that at least one other committee member would join Ian McCafferty in voting for a 0.25% rate hike in today’s meeting. Instead, the voting pattern was unchanged as in the previous three meetings at 8-1. In its quarterly inflation report, the Bank [..]

European Session – Sterling underperforms as BoE expected to hold rates for longer while dollar firm on Fed rate hike outlook

Posted on November 5, 2015 at 3:17 pm GMT

Thursday was a busy day in terms of economic data and events, which included Eurozone data and US jobless claims, and the highlight being the Bank of England policy announcement. Today was known as “Super Thursday” in the UK, which included the Bank of England’s rate decision, inflation report and meeting minutes, as well as Governor Mark Carney’s press conference. The overall less hawkish tone from the BoE led to sterling’s underperformance as the central bank appeared set to keep [..]

Technical Analysis – USDJPY climbs past 200-DMA; bias is bullish

Posted on November 5, 2015 at 9:40 am GMT

USDJPY was positive for a fourth day on Thursday as it moved further above the 200-day moving average. The pair appears to be targeting 122 and hasn’t traded above that handle since the ‘Black Monday’ nosedive on August 24. The momentum indicators are strong with both RSI and the stochastics in positive territory and trending upwards. The near-term bias is therefore very bullish. Prices are likely to find resistance at 122 if they continue to push upwards. A break above [..]

Asian Session – Yellen says December rate rise “live possibility”; dollar up

Posted on November 5, 2015 at 8:24 am GMT

US Fed Chair Janet Yellen signalled the Fed is ready to raise rates at its December meeting if the incoming information until then is supportive enough. Speaking before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, Yellen said the US economy is expected to continue to grow at a sufficient pace to allow the Fed to meet its dual mandate and that December would be a “live possibility” if the data until then meets this expectation. However, she added that no [..]

Technical Analysis – GBPUSD fails to break above Ichimoku cloud, neutral bias remains

Posted on November 5, 2015 at 8:12 am GMT

GBPUSD attempted to rise above the daily Ichimoku cloud but fell back and is currently testing the tenkan-sen line. This is providing support at 1.5370. The bias remains neutral for the moment. The rise from 1.5106 has found resistance several times at 1.5508 resistance. As long as the market remains above 1.5106 and below 1.5508 the market will remain neutral unless there is a break out on either side. In the bigger picture, since September, the market it testing the [..]

European Session – Dollar broadly firmer on Fed rate hike prospects after upbeat US ADP jobs data

Posted on November 4, 2015 at 3:29 pm GMT

The dollar was strong against its major counterparts on firmer US Treasury yields and on the prospects of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December, especially after marginally stronger US jobs data today. The euro declined against the dollar for a second day to reach a new three-month low due to an increasing divergence of monetary policies between the ECB and the Fed. ECB President Mario Draghi reaffirmed his dovish stance on Tuesday and said the ECB will [..]

ADP employment report points to rebound in October NFP; trade deficit shrinks in September

Posted on November 4, 2015 at 3:15 pm GMT

The ADP national employment report pointed to another strong month for US jobs in October. The latest ADP employment change reading came in at 182,000 in October, slightly above estimates of 180,000. The figure was weaker than the 190,000 new jobs added in September, which was revised down from initial estimates of 200,000. Employment rose in all sectors during the last month except for manufacturing, indicating the sector continues to struggle from weak exports. The biggest jobs gains were in [..]

UK services PMI bounces back in October; Services activity also strong in Eurozone and China

Posted on November 4, 2015 at 11:35 am GMT

Activity in the UK’s services sector bounced back in October from the 2-year low it hit in September. It was the first time in four months that activity increased but remains below levels seen since the second half of 2013. The Markit Services PMI rose sharply to 54.9 in October from 53.3 in September, which was the lowest since May 2013. Consensus estimates were for a reading of 54.5. Despite the strong rise, the rate of new business growth did [..]

Asian Session – Aussie extends gains but kiwi slides on poor jobs data

Posted on November 4, 2015 at 8:51 am GMT

The New Zealand dollar fell on Tuesday following a decline in global dairy prices and weaker-than-expected employment data. A drop in the global dairy price index pushed the kiwi down to 0.6650 against the US dollar but it managed to regain ground and rise to 0.6706 right before the jobs data. However, the latest employment and earnings figures disappointed and the kiwi slumped to 0.6653. It extended its slide to a one-week low of 0.6631 on Wednesday but recovered slightly [..]

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