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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD tests key 1.51 level, bearish below cloud

Posted on November 10, 2015 at 7:58 am GMT

GBPUSD is consolidating Friday’s drop and hovering around the key psychological level of 1.5100. This is currently acting as support. RSI is in bearish territory below 50 and the market is below the 200-day moving average and daily Ichimoku cloud, which are bearish signals. Meanwhile, lower highs and lower lows have been created since the peak of 1.5929 in June. To the upside, resistance lies ta 1.5200. A move above this would bring the bias back to neutral. But a [..]

European Session – Euro comes under pressure on expectations of ECB deposit rate cut

Posted on November 9, 2015 at 3:16 pm GMT

The dollar softened slightly from Friday’s payrolls driven-strength, allowing the euro and the pound to reclaim some losses but against the yen, the dollar continued to rise on Monday. The greenback reached its strongest level in more than six months on Friday versus the euro as the strong US jobs report opened the door for the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates when it meets in December. Following the NFP report which showed 271,000 jobs added in October, the futures [..]

Chinese October trade data disappoint, add to case for stimulus

Posted on November 9, 2015 at 11:50 am GMT

Chinese October trade numbers, out on Sunday, were disappointing for those that expected that Chinese growth should be picking up. In fact, there was disappointing news both regarding domestic as well as external demand. Analysts were expecting exports to fall by 3% year-on-year (compared to the previous month’s 3.7% drop), whereas imports were anticipated to be 16% lower compared to the previous month’s big 20.4% reduction. In fact, the drop in exports was a more severe 6.9% and the reduction [..]

Asian Session – Profit-taking by dollar bulls following massive post-employment report gains

Posted on November 9, 2015 at 9:00 am GMT

The dollar eased back following significant gains on Friday, as traders decided to take some profits after the dollar’s move. The euro climbed back versus the dollar at 1.0763 compared to the low of 1.0705 that was hit on Friday, while sterling also tried to move back towards 1.51 following a low of 1.5026. The pound was last buying 1.5077 dollars. The aussie and the kiwi also moved higher against the US dollar. The exception to the general theme of [..]

Technical Analysis – EURUSD dips below lower range, bearish bias increases

Posted on November 9, 2015 at 8:16 am GMT

EURUSD has dipped below the lows of the range it has been trading in since April 2015 (on daily chart). After Friday’s big tumble following a strong US nonfarm payrolls report, the pair reached a low of 1.0705, the lowest in six months. The focus is now on the key psychological level of 1.0500 and the March low of 1.0461. With the market below the daily Ichimoku cloud and below the 200-day moving average, including a bearish cross of the [..]

Strong US NFP strengthens case for December hike; dollar surges to 7-month high

Posted on November 6, 2015 at 3:08 pm GMT

Global currencies plummeted against the US dollar on Friday after nonfarm payrolls rose much more than expected, beating even the highest estimates. Nonfarm payrolls in the United States jumped by 134k in October to 271k – a 10-month high, and was sharply above estimates of 180k. September’s figure was revised down to 137k from 142k, confirming the relative soft patch in August and September. The unemployment rate slipped to 5.0% – the lowest since April 2008. Expectations were for the [..]

European Session – Dollar surges as payrolls strengthen Fed rate hike view

Posted on November 6, 2015 at 3:06 pm GMT

The dollar surged across the board in reaction to the very upbeat US jobs data on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls for October far exceeded estimates and showed 271,000 jobs created in the US economy from 142,000 in September. Expectations were for 180,000 jobs to be added last month. The US unemployment rate also fell by 0.1 percentage point to 5.0%. This is the lowest level since 2008. Other good news was that average hourly earnings increased as well. The strong jobs [..]

Jobs data seen pushing Fed towards rate hike and dollar higher

Posted on November 6, 2015 at 2:33 pm GMT

The US dollar rose to a 6 ½ month high versus the euro and a 2 ½ month high versus the yen today, following the release of a surprisingly strong employment report out of the United States. As the Fed has professed to being data-dependent concerning the decision, the strong data that has been received means that a potential rate hike – the first since 2006 – is now closer to becoming reality. Today’s jobs number could even go as [..]

Week Ahead – China data and Eurozone Q3 GDP to be the main focus

Posted on November 6, 2015 at 1:11 pm GMT

Central banks will take a backseat next week as attention turns to China for the latest economic indicators out of the country. Trade data, retail sales and industrial production figures will be some of the data released in China next week. Third quarter GDP data out of the Eurozone will also be closely watched as the European Central Bank ponders whether to provide additional monetary stimulus when it meets next month. Starting the week on Sunday will be the latest [..]

Asian Session – Pound at 1-month low after dovish BoE; Dollar firms ahead of NFP

Posted on November 6, 2015 at 8:23 am GMT

The pound stabilized in Asian trading on Friday after dropping over 1% yesterday following the Bank of England’s dovish tone at its November policy meeting. Markets were surprised that the Bank’s latest UK growth and inflation projections were based on interest rates staying on hold until at least 2017. However, speaking in an interview after yesterday’s press conference, BoE Governor Mark Carney said that rates are likely to go up in 2016 and that the cycle will be more gradual [..]

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