News / Page 157

US retail sales disappoint in October; unlikely to detract Fed in rate decision

Posted on November 13, 2015 at 3:04 pm GMT

Retail sales in the United States rose by less than expected in October, posting a modest growth of just 0.1% month-on-month. Consensus estimates were for retail sales to grow by 0.3% m/m. Adding to the feeble data was a downward revision to the previous month’s figure, which was revised down to 0% from 0.1% m/m. On a 12-month basis, retail sales were 1.7% higher. The core retail sales measure, which excludes items such as building materials, motor vehicles and parts, [..]

Positioning may be a problem for dollar bulls for remainder of year; oil eyes August low

Posted on November 13, 2015 at 2:03 pm GMT

Euro – dollar has been under intense pressure in recent weeks after it was unveiled that the Federal Reserve was planning to raise interest rates during its December meeting, while the European Central Bank was planning to add to its stimulus measures in the same month. Specifically, the euro came tumbling down from its 1.1494 peak (not far from its high for the year) in mid-October to below the 1.07 level on November 10th. During this period, Fed Governors have [..]

Week Ahead – US, UK and Eurozone inflation to be eyed; Japan GDP could point to recession

Posted on November 13, 2015 at 12:51 pm GMT

Inflation data will be the main theme of the coming week as October CPI readings are published for the United States and the United Kingdom, as well as the final CPI numbers for the Eurozone. Japanese GDP data will also be closely watched as it could show that Japan slipped into recession in the third quarter of the year. Japan will start the week with GDP data on Monday. The economy is forecast to have contracted for the second consecutive [..]

Asian Session – Dollar bounces back but euro edges lower on German Q3 GDP

Posted on November 13, 2015 at 8:56 am GMT

The US dollar was firmer on Friday after posting losses on Thursday on reduced risk appetite. Hawkish comments by several Fed officials yesterday failed to lift the dollar and interest rate futures were still implying a 70% chance of a rate rise by the Fed in December. New York Fed President William Dudley sounded less dovish than usual and said he saw “the risks of moving too quickly versus moving too slowly as nearly balanced”. The Fed’s Vice Chair Stanley [..]

Technical Analysis – GBPJPY neutral bias, testing cloud top

Posted on November 13, 2015 at 8:08 am GMT

GBPJPY has a neutral bias and is consolidating in the Ichimoku cloud. There is strong resistance by the 38.2% Fibonacci (of the rise from 174.86 – 195.87) and the top of the cloud, around 187.84. A fall below 180.37 (September 7 low) will turn bias to the downside and to open the way to retest the 174.86 low (April 14). But with RSI in bullish territory above 50 and the tenkan-sen above the kijun-sen, the bearish signals are weak. Short [..]

European Session – Draghi pressures euro below 1.07 before it bounces back

Posted on November 12, 2015 at 3:25 pm GMT

European Central Bank Mario Draghi raised market expectations for further quantitative easing after comments he made at the European Parliament today. Draghi’s remarks had a similarly dovish tone to the October post-ECB press conference. The euro was knocked below 1.07 against the dollar after the ECB Chief said that the likelihood of inflation returning to target had diminished somewhat while risks from global growth and trade were “clearly visible”. Therefore markets expect more stimulus from the ECB, in the form [..]

Draghi downbeat on inflation; euro falls on increased prospects of December move

Posted on November 12, 2015 at 2:50 pm GMT

Expectations of further monetary stimulus by the European Central Bank were heightened again today following ECB President Mario Draghi’s testimony to the European Parliament. At the hearing to the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, Draghi said that “signs of a sustained turnaround in core inflation have somewhat weakened”. The ECB’s Governing Council will convene on December 3 for its next policy meeting and recent reports have suggested that a consensus is forming with policymakers to cut the deposit rate further [..]

Solid Australian jobs gain lessens chance of RBA rate cut in near term

Posted on November 12, 2015 at 11:05 am GMT

Jobs growth in Australia surged in October, rising by 58,600 and strongly beating expectations of 15,000. This was the biggest gain in 3½ years and took the unemployment rate down to 5.9% from 6.2% in the previous month. There was a 40,000 increase in full-time employment, while part-time employment rose by 18,600. The labor force participation rate increased by 0.1% to 65.0%. The latest data is an indication that the service sector of the economy is generating more jobs than [..]

Asian Session – Aussie jumps on strong jobs growth; dollar flat ahead of speeches by Fed officials

Posted on November 12, 2015 at 8:25 am GMT

The Australian dollar jumped over 1% on Thursday after employment in Australia rose much more than expected. Employment in October increased by 58.6k against expectations that it would rise by 15k and was the biggest gain in 3½ years. The unemployment rate fell to 5.9% from 6.2% – the lowest since May 2014. The aussie soared from 0.7059 against the US dollar to 0.7144 after the data as it lowered the probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia would make [..]

Technical Analysis – USDJPY testing 123.00, neutral bias

Posted on November 12, 2015 at 8:00 am GMT

USDJPY is testing the key psychological 123.00 yen level which is now acting as intra-day resistance. The intraday bias is neutral as the pair consolidates around this level. On the daily chart, the market is well above the Ichimoku cloud and above the 200-day moving average. This is supporting a bullish bias. The tenkan-sen line is above the kijun-sen line, also a bulish signal. Prices broke out of a recent 118.05 – 120.87 range (from the end of August to [..]

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