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Technical Analysis – EURUSD gains some upside momentum but still bearish

Posted on November 19, 2015 at 2:23 pm GMT

EURUSD is looking to close higher for a second day but was struggling to hold above the 1.07 handle, dipping below it several times throughout the day. Momentum indicators have started trending upwards after falling to oversold territory but the upside momentum is not strong enough to push for a rise above 50. In fact, in the hourly charts, the stochastics have reversed back downwards, suggesting ongoing bearish bias in the near term. The longer-term picture is also looking bearish [..]

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BoJ ignores weak data and leaves monetary policy unchanged

Posted on November 19, 2015 at 11:39 am GMT

The Bank of Japan chose not to change course on monetary policy on Thursday and kept interest rates and the size of its asset purchases unchanged. The decision comes even as data out today showed annual exports growth in Japan turned negative for the first time in over a year. In the accompanying statement released with the decision announcement, the Bank appeared satisfied that the Japanese economy is continuing its moderate recovery despite a noticeable impact on exports and industrial production [..]

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Asian Session –BoJ keeps policy unchanged; dollar down on profit taking after FOMC minutes

Posted on November 19, 2015 at 8:38 am GMT

The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged at its November meeting as policymakers brushed aside recent data showing that Japan’s economy is in technical recession. The statement by the Bank noted that while exports and industrial production flattened out as a result of the slowdown in emerging market economies, domestic demand and business fixed investment have been increasing at a moderate rate. Trade data out today showed Japanese exports fell on a year-on-year basis for the first time since [..]

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Technical Analysis – Japan stock futures index bullish after clearing Ichimoku cloud

Posted on November 19, 2015 at 8:00 am GMT

The Japan 225 (stock futures) index had a good rally after bouncing from 16888 to break above the daily Ichimoku cloud and reach 19958 early on Thursday. The bias is bullish as the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines are positively aligned and rising and the RSI has not reached overbought conditions yet. There is scope to target the next key level of 20000. This is quite an important barrier to the upside which if the market fails to breach, prices will [..]

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European Session – Euro bounces off 7-month lows as dollar stalls ahead of Fed minutes

Posted on November 18, 2015 at 3:47 pm GMT

Currency markets were relatively quiet during Wednesday’s European session in the absence of major economic data and investors are being cautious ahead of the FOMC minutes later in the US session. European equity markets were weak, particularly German stocks, which helped the euro to bounce back against the dollar. The euro recovered from an Asian session low of 1.0630 versus the dollar to reach a European session high of 1.0691 where upside momentum fizzled out. Sterling was flat on the [..]

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Technical Analysis – AUDJPY rises above cloud as bias turns bullish

Posted on November 18, 2015 at 1:34 pm GMT

AUDJPY closed above the Ichimoku cloud on Tuesday but momentum appears to be waning today as prices were in negative territory. However, both RSI and the stochastics are in bullish territory, suggesting further upside momentum in the near term. In the broader view, the pair has been consolidating within a one-month trading range and prices would need to break above the October 12 high of 88.60 to shift the medium-term outlook to a more bullish one. The next resistance could [..]

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Paris attacks unlikely to derail Eurozone recovery but may dent confidence, weigh on ECB policy

Posted on November 18, 2015 at 12:16 pm GMT

Last Friday’s terrorist attacks in Paris, France, which have so far killed 129 people, have cast a shadow on the fragile recovery in the Eurozone. It is worth reminding that third quarter growth in the euro area came in below expectations and the Eurozone economy expanded by a meagre 0.3% quarter-on-quarter. The European Central Bank has already been signalling for weeks now that it will review its current stimulus measures at its next policy meeting on December 3 where it [..]

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Asian Session – Dollar holds near 7-month highs; commodities rout continues

Posted on November 18, 2015 at 8:19 am GMT

The US dollar held on to its two-day gains despite reduced risk appetite following reports today of gunfire in north Paris and the diversion of two flights from the US to Paris due to bomb threats. The dollar index came close to breaking above 100 for the first time since April. Positive US data on Tuesday increased the odds of the Fed hiking interest rates at its December policy meeting. October CPI rose in the US to 0.2% year-on-year versus [..]

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Technical Analysis – Gold extends decline to 5-year low

Posted on November 18, 2015 at 7:50 am GMT

Gold fell to fresh 5-year lows early on Wednesday, touching 1064.50, the lowest since February 2010. Technical signals both on the daily and weekly charts are bearish, giving little scope for a shift in the bias. On the daily chart, the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines are negatively aligned and prices have fallen below the Ichimoku cloud, supporting a bearish bias. The market remains strongly bearish below the key 1200 level and below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 681.43 – [..]

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European Session – Dollar lifted by US CPI as Fed rate hike comes into view, euro gains capped by ECB’s Praet

Posted on November 17, 2015 at 3:40 pm GMT

There was return of risk appetite in the European session on Tuesday, allowing some major currencies to trim losses made on Monday. The euro bounced off a 7-month low of 1.0642 to reach a session high of 1.0678. A better-than-expected reading of German investor sentiment helped buoy the single currency as the November ZEW index rose to 10.4 versus 6.0 forecast and above a prior 1.9. Bigger gains in the euro were limited due to some remarks from the ECB’s [..]

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