News / Page 153

Asian Session – Oil up on geopolitical concerns but dollar flat on mixed data

Posted on November 26, 2015 at 12:15 pm GMT

Increased tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices above $43 a barrel today, extending Tuesday’s gains. Geopolitical risks were heightened yesterday after Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet over the Syrian border, raising fears that the incident could escalate to a more serious confrontation between Russia and NATO. US oil futures jumped over 2.5% on Tuesday and were up 0.4% at $43.05 in today’s Asian session. Commodities such as copper and gold also advanced higher on the geopolitical concerns. [..]

Technical Analysis – USDJPY neutral near-term, scope for uptrend resumption

Posted on November 25, 2015 at 6:11 am GMT

USDJPY short-term bias is neutral after the pair met with resistance at the November 18 high of 123.74. This level is a key Fibonacci level (78.6% retracement) of the fall from 125.84 to 116.13 (June to August decline). Support is provided by the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 122.13. If this support level holds, there is scope for a bounce back up to 123.74 as some technical indicators are still showing bullish signals. The tenkan-sen line is above the kijun-sen line [..]

US GDP revised higher in third quarter as Fed hike moves closer

Posted on November 24, 2015 at 4:20 pm GMT

US economic growth in the third quarter was revised higher today as the decline in inventory investment was less than initially estimated. GDP expanded at an annualised rate of 2.1% in the third quarter of the year, versus previous estimates of 1.5%. The revision was in line with forecasts and underscores the strength of the US economy at a time when the US Federal Reserve is looking to raise interest rates for the first time in nine years. The upward [..]

European Session – US Q3 GDP supports dollar, euro bounces on German Ifo

Posted on November 24, 2015 at 4:08 pm GMT

The euro bounced on upbeat German Ifo data that showed the business climate index rose in November to come in at 109 from 108.2 in October. It was expected to remain unchanged. Meanwhile, German third quarter GDP was unrevised at 0.3% quarter-on-quarter. The euro bounced versus the dollar after the Ifo data but met resistance at 1.0668. After another bounce to 1.0672 in the early US session the euro fell back down to 1.0627. Sterling underperformed against the dollar to [..]

G10 performance versus dollar for the past month reveals interesting insights

Posted on November 24, 2015 at 3:33 pm GMT

The US dollar has performed very strongly during the past month and this is of course reflected across many different pairs in the FX market. Not all currencies have been weak to the same extent versus the greenback although nearly all posted significant losses. European currencies lead the pack in terms of losses as the Swiss Franc, the Norwegian and Danish Krone and the euro lost more than 4%. Particularly the euro has been hurt by ECB promises of easier [..]

German business sentiment improves in November; Q3 GDP growth confirmed at 0.3%

Posted on November 24, 2015 at 11:00 am GMT

The German Ifo business survey showed sentiment rose in November among German businesses to the highest level since June 2014. The Ifo business climate index increased to 109.0 in November from 108.2 in October and against estimates it would stay unchanged. The current assessment index, which fell sharply last month as weakening overseas demand had dampened the mood, rose to 113.4 in November from an upwardly revised 112.7 the prior month. This was well above expectations that it would drop [..]

Asian Session – Dollar off highs after hitting 8-month peak; commodities edge up

Posted on November 24, 2015 at 8:15 am GMT

The dollar index was off around 0.3% from Monday’s 8-month high of 100.0, coming within a whisker of surpassing the 12-year high of 100.39 set back in March. Growing expectations that the Fed will raise rates when it meets in December are driving the dollar higher. Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Monday tried to appease concerns of higher interest rates saying that “an overly aggressive increase in rates” would damage economic growth and force a return to low interest rates. [..]

Technical Analysis – EURAUD falls to four-month low, bearish outlook remains

Posted on November 24, 2015 at 7:45 am GMT

EURAUD touched a four-month low 1.4697 on Monday and is now consolidating around this level and below resistance of 1.4784. This barrier to the upside is where the 200-day moving average converges with a key Fibonacci retracement level. This 61.8% Fibonacci is of the 1.3672 – 1.6582 rise (April to August rise). The bias is bearish and there is scope to fall further. The next target is the 76.4% Fibonacci at 1.4293. The tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines are negative aligned, [..]

Dollar strength, China concerns push metals to multi-year lows as oil tests $40

Posted on November 23, 2015 at 3:54 pm GMT

The commodities rout continues to haunt metal prices such as copper, iron ore, nickel and zinc, which have all plummeted to multi-year lows in recent days. The strong dollar is one of the reasons commodity prices continue to come under pressure as the two have traditionally shared an inverse relationship (see graph). This is because the majority of commodities are priced in dollars so when the value of the dollar goes up, it will require fewer dollars to buy commodities. Another [..]

European Session – Euro decline paused by PMI data, oil rebounds on Saudi Arabia’s pledge to stabilize prices

Posted on November 23, 2015 at 3:38 pm GMT

US dollar strength remains across the board due to continuing market expectations of a Fed rate hike in December. However the euro managed to trim some losses after better-than-expected Eurozone PMI data today. The euro recovered against the dollar after testing the key 1.0600 level and hit a session high of 1.0643 after the latest Markit flash PMI reading of the composite PMI showed a surprise uptick in Eurozone activity in November. The index rose to a 4½-year high of [..]

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