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Asian Session – Dollar off highs as attention turns to FOMC announcement

Posted on December 16, 2015 at 9:05 am GMT

The dollar climbed to one-week highs yesterday in anticipation of an expected Fed rate hike later today. Slightly better-than-expected inflation data and 2-year US treasury yields rising to 5-year highs also helped the greenback on Tuesday. The dollar extended its gains against the yen today to climb to 121.90 yen in late Asian trading. The euro also fell against the dollar and hit a low of 1.0904 dollars yesterday but was up at 1.0935 dollars today. US inflation came in [..]

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Technical Analysis – EURUSD tests 1.10, strong resistance at Ichimoku cloud

Posted on December 16, 2015 at 7:54 am GMT

EURUSD has pierced into the Ichimoku cloud but closed below it on several days. The cloud is proving to be a strong barrier to the upside, as is the 200-day moving average, which is also capping the market. After falling close to the key 1.0500 level, prices bounced back up to test the key 1.1000 level. The near term bias is neutral. But looking at the bigger picture, the market has been moving sideways after the decline from 1.3992 (May [..]

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European Session – Euro falls below 1.10; dollar strengthens ahead of FOMC

Posted on December 15, 2015 at 3:57 pm GMT

The euro was unable to remain above $1.1000 as the market focus shifts to the Federal Reserve policy meeting which is being held over two days and concludes with an announcement on Wednesday. The dollar has been gaining across the board in the past session as a rate hike by the Fed is a likely scenario. The dollar rose against the yen to a high of 121.53. The rate increase itself is more or less full priced in at this [..]

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Pound see-saws on inflation data as CPI turns positive

Posted on December 15, 2015 at 12:42 pm GMT

UK consumer prices rose on an annual basis for the first time in four months, figures out today showed. CPI rose from -0.1% y/y in October to +0.1% y/y in November, in line with consensus estimates. The core rate, which excludes energy, food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, rose to the highest level since July, climbing from 1.1% to 1.2% y/y in November, and was also within estimates. The biggest drop from the previous month came from transport costs (-0.7%) as [..]

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Oil price drop becomes a major theme for markets

Posted on December 15, 2015 at 10:35 am GMT

As the oil price broke to fresh 7-year lows this week and even threatened to make fresh 11-year lows, many other markets took note.  First of all the rapidly dropping oil price was also interpreted as a sign of a weak global economy; something that weighed on risk sentiment.  Other non-energy commodities are also making fresh lows such as industrial metals, while an index of commodity prices – the CRB index – is at its lowest since 2009. In the [..]

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Asian Session – Oil steadies but dollar under pressure ahead of inflation data and FOMC

Posted on December 15, 2015 at 8:49 am GMT

Oil prices rebounded yesterday from 2009 levels after US oil futures hit a fresh intra-day low of $34.52 a barrel. US futures were slightly below earlier highs at $36.08 in today’s Asian session, while Brent crude was trading at $37.82 a barrel. Oil prices are expected to remain under pressure as a mild winter is likely to hit demand further in the coming months. The Australian dollar received a boost from the RBA’s latest meeting minutes, which said that low [..]

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Technical Analysis – NZDUSD continues bullish run, moves above cloud

Posted on December 15, 2015 at 8:06 am GMT

NZDUSD has had a bullish run since bouncing from the November 18 low of 0.6427 and has hit a high of 0.6824 so far today. The pair has retraced more than 76.4% of the decline from 0.6896 to 0.6427 (mid-October to mid-November decline). The technical indicators are giving bullish signals. Tenkan-sen crossed above kijun-sen and the market is above the Ichimoku cloud. Also RSI is in bullish territory above 50, which would keep the upside momentum in the short-term. There [..]

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European Session – Dollar gives back gains as US yields decline ahead of Fed; euro above 1.10

Posted on December 14, 2015 at 3:41 pm GMT

Safe havens were boosted on subdued risk appetite ahead of the Federal Reserve policy meeting on Wednesday. The yen gained and gold bounced back late in the European session. Crude oil continued its decline and briefly dipped below $35 a barrel. The dollar gave back earlier gains against major currencies as US Treasury bond yields declined. The euro traded up to $1.0997, while the dollar slid versus the yen to 120.63 after reversing from 121.34 yen. A Fed rate hike [..]

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BoJ Tankan survey points to steady confidence but outlook worsens

Posted on December 14, 2015 at 12:37 pm GMT

Sentiment among Japanese businesses held steady in the fourth quarter according to the Bank of Japan’s latest Tankan survey. However, companies were less optimistic about the future as worries about weakening overseas demand weighed on exporters. Large manufacturers maintained their optimism in the current quarter at similar levels to the previous quarter. The Tankan index for large manufacturers was unchanged at 12 and compares with expectations that the index would fall to 11. Non-manufacturers were also as confident as with [..]

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Asian Session – Oil extends slide to 7-year lows; Positive China and Japan data fail to lift markets

Posted on December 14, 2015 at 8:23 am GMT

Crude oil prices fell to fresh near 7-year lows on Friday after the International Energy Agency forecast weaker demand for oil in 2016. In its latest monthly report, the IEA said that demand for oil next year will fall to 1.2 million barrels a day from this year’s 1.8 million barrels a day. US crude oil futures hit their lowest since February 2009 of $35.15 on Friday and were only marginally firmer today at $35.50. Industrial production in China rose [..]

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