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Better-than-expected US GDP revision fails to lift dollar

Posted on December 22, 2015 at 3:17 pm GMT

US economic growth was revised slightly lower in the final estimate of third quarter GDP growth. The economy expanded by an annualized rate of 2.0% in the third quarter of the year against second estimates of 2.1% growth. The figure is ahead of forecasts of 1.9% expansion. The downward revision was primarily due to private inventory investment being revised lower. The third quarter growth is almost half the rate of that seen in the second quarter when the economy grew [..]

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European Session – Sterling drops to 8-month low, aussie rises as China plans more stimulus

Posted on December 22, 2015 at 3:06 pm GMT

The Australian and New Zealand dollars were the big movers in the major currency pairs as China plans more stimulus. Stabilization of oil and iron ore prices also helped. The Antipodeans reacted to a report out on Monday that China will make its monetary policy more flexible and expand its budget deficit in 2016 in order to stimulate growth in the slowing economy. Meanwhile, China’s plans also offered commodities and commodity currencies some much needed respite. Apart from the news [..]

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Asian Session – Dollar flat but euro back above 1.09 dollars; oil stabilizes

Posted on December 22, 2015 at 8:17 am GMT

The US dollar was steady in Asian trading on Tuesday as investors await US economic data later in the day for some direction. The greenback moved above yesterday’s lows of 120.83 yen to climb to 121.20 yen in late Asian session today. Comments on Monday by Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart that US rates are likely to go up at every other meeting had little impact on the dollar. Lockhart added that the rate rises will depend on how the [..]

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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD bearish but stalls as stochastic reach oversold levels

Posted on December 22, 2015 at 6:46 am GMT

GBPUSD has been making lower lows and lower highs since declining in June this year, falling from a peak of 1.5929. The market is below the daily Ichimoku cloud and below the 200-day moving average, which highlights the bearish market structure. Also, the negatively aligned tenkan-sen and kjun-sen lines are adding to the downside bias. The July 2013 low of 1.4811 is the next target to the downside. But with the stochastic reaching oversold levels and RSI coming close to [..]

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Central Bank officials’ statements from UK, Eurozone signal steady policy

Posted on December 21, 2015 at 3:47 pm GMT

In an otherwise quiet trading day which lacked much fundamental news, the focus was on some statements by European central bank officials. In the UK, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Martin Weale stated that there was more “breathing space” in deciding when to raise interest rates as recent modest wage growth readings and commodity price falls could keep inflation down for longer.  Coming from one of the MPC’s more hawkish members, such statements mean that the Bank of [..]

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European Session – Euro unrattled by ECB comments and Spanish election results

Posted on December 21, 2015 at 3:26 pm GMT

The euro edged higher on Monday and was largely unfazed by Sunday’s elections in Spain where the ruling conservatives lost their majority. The conservative People’s Party won the most seats but not enough for a majority and need to form an alliance with other parties. However, they now face the threat of a left-wing coalition from the Socialists and the anti-austerity ‘Podemos’ party who came second and third respectively. Shares in Madrid closed down 2.5% lower in response to the [..]

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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD consolidates in broad range following downtrend

Posted on December 21, 2015 at 9:11 am GMT

The aussie against the US dollar has been trading in a range for the past 5 months or so between 69 cents and 74 cents.  Currently it is around the middle of this range at 0.7170. Longer-term, the aussie remains firmly in a downtrend since the 200-day average has been above price action for about 15 months.  The failure of the aussie to break above 0.7385 during two attempts in mid-October and early December, should be worrying to bulls. Other [..]

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Asian Session – Oil rout continues as Brent Crude falls to 11-year low

Posted on December 21, 2015 at 8:21 am GMT

Oil prices continued their descent on Monday as production remains near record levels and signs that US shale producers are withstanding the current slump in prices. The number of active oil rigs in the US rose last week adding to the supply glut that has been made worse by expectations that Iran will return to the market next year. Brent crude futures hit an 11-year low today of $36.17 per barrel, while WTI oil futures were trading near 6-year lows [..]

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European Session – Euro mixed in quiet trading; Loonie recovers below 1.40 dollars on oil surge

Posted on December 18, 2015 at 3:40 pm GMT

The dollar briefly rebounded from earlier lows in a relatively quiet European trading after dropping against major currencies following the Bank of Japan’s surprise announcement today. The Bank of Japan made some fine tuning to its existing quantitative easing program to include Japanese government bonds of higher maturities and exchange-traded funds of companies. The yen strengthened after the announcement as investors didn’t think the measures went far enough to stimulate growth and inflation. The dollar was trading at 121.50 yen [..]

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US Dollar: Buy on the rumor, sell or buy more on the fact?

Posted on December 18, 2015 at 2:55 pm GMT

The announcement of the Fed’s rate hike on December 16 was a very well anticipated event, as economists and analysts were almost unanimous in awaiting such a development.  The market was not entirely convinced however, as even on the eve of the rate hike, futures’ markets gave around a 20% probability that the Fed would keep rates on hold. Therefore, the news that the Fed had hiked should not have come as a surprise to market observers and one would [..]

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