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Technical Analysis – EURUSD neutral; upside moves limited by key 1.10 resistance

Posted on December 28, 2015 at 7:25 am GMT

EURUSD remains neutral on the daily chart. Prices pierced into the Ichimoku cloud and broke above the tenkan-sen line but a critical barrier comes into view on the upside- this key 1.1000 level is an important resistance level which could limit further moves higher. Meanwhile, the overall outlook for EURUSD has been neutral on the weekly chart, since falling to a multi-year low of 1.0461 in March this year. The pair has been trapped in sideways action in a range [..]

European Session – Oil benefits from upbeat sentiment as equity markets rally pre-holiday

Posted on December 24, 2015 at 11:36 am GMT

Currency markets have been subdued this week due to the holiday-shortened trading week but most of the focus was on the commodity markets and equities. An improvement in sentiment this week particularly helped oil process move higher. Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI oil), both rose above $37 a barrel on Wednesday and consolidated these gains on Thursday. Meanwhile, China’s plans – announced on Monday – to unveil further stimulus to boost its sluggish [..]

Technical Analysis – US500 Futures index reclaims 2000 level in pre-Christmas rally

Posted on December 24, 2015 at 11:34 am GMT

The US-500 futures index posted an impressive 2.9% rally in the first three days of the week, taking it back above the 2000 level. The index slipped below the psychologically important 2000 mark following the Fed’s first rate hike in nearly a decade on December 16. The rally has taken prices just above the Ichimoku cloud but have met resistance at the 200-day moving average around 2055. RSI is looking neutral in the daily chart but the stochastics are still [..]

Forex Markets 2015/16: Annual Review & Outlook

Posted on December 24, 2015 at 9:41 am GMT

By all accounts, 2015 was the year of the dollar as the greenback surged against its major counterparts. The dollar was up around 10% versus a basket of trade-weighted currencies, with some of its strongest gains registered versus commodity currencies such as the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar, while it also gained around 10% versus the euro on policy divergence. Interestingly, the dollar’s gains were not evenly distributed throughout the year as the dollar index surged to a fresh [..]

Asian Session – Dollar subdued ahead of holiday weekend but commodities and equities rally

Posted on December 24, 2015 at 8:26 am GMT

Asian equities were mixed on Thursday with Australia closing up ahead of the Christmas break but Japan and China were lower. It follows an impressive rally in European and US shares on Wednesday as investors went bargain hunting in thin pre-Christmas trade. Commodities also benefited from light holiday trading as investors adjusted their positions before the end of the year. US oil futures jumped by almost 4% yesterday but were flat at $37.81 a barrel in late Asian trading on [..]

Technical Analysis – EURGBP bullish above cloud, scope for bouncing back to 0.74

Posted on December 24, 2015 at 7:46 am GMT

After a strong rally from below the key 0.7000 level, EURGBP climbed to a high of 0.7415 this week (December 22). The rally stalled and prices fell back down from Tuesday’s peak. Support is provided by the daily tenkan-sen line at 0.7310. Below this level, the Ichimoku cloud top is the next support at 0.7236. There could still be some scope for a bounce back up since the tenkan-sen line and kijun-sen lines are positively aligned and the market is [..]

European Session – Sterling rises despite weak UK GDP; dollar supported by string of US data

Posted on December 23, 2015 at 3:55 pm GMT

The pound was one of the top‐performing major currencies today, as it reversed some of the losses made yesterday. Sterling shrugged off weak third quarter revised growth data from the UK and traded up close to $1.4900. UK Q3 GDP growth was revised down to 2.1% y/y from the expected reading of 2.3%. But the pound took some minor comfort from a narrower-than-forecast UK current account deficit which came in at -GBP17.5 bln versus -GBP21.5 bln expected for Q3. The [..]

US durable goods orders unchanged but personal consumption rises

Posted on December 23, 2015 at 3:51 pm GMT

Data out of the US today was mixed but the dollar responded positively to the numbers, edging higher in late European trading. Personal consumption expenditure (PCE), which was inadvertently released late on Tuesday ahead of schedule, quickened to 0.3% month-on-month in November from a downwardly revised flat rate in October. The figure was in line with estimates. Personal income slowed slightly to 0.3% month-on-month from 0.4% the prior month. However, it beat expectations of a 0.2% rise. Wages and salaries [..]

Asian Session – Dollar attempts a rebound ahead of key data later in the day

Posted on December 23, 2015 at 8:34 am GMT

The US dollar edged higher in quiet Asian trading on Wednesday as Japanese markets are closed for the Emperor’s birthday. Profit taking drove the US currency lower for a third straight day on Tuesday. There was limited reaction to mixed US economic data yesterday. The third revision to third quarter growth showed the US economy expanded at a slightly slower pace than had been estimated in the second revision. However, the data was above forecasts and shows US growth remains [..]

Technical Analysis – GBPAUD bearish below 200-day moving average

Posted on December 23, 2015 at 7:48 am GMT

GBPAUD has been making lower lows and lower highs since falling from the six-year high of 2.2386 that was hit in August 2015. The pair remains bearish below the daily Ichimoku cloud. The tenkan-sen is giving a bearish signal after crossing back below the kijun-sen line. The 200-day moving average will act as resistance to the upside. To the downside, the next target is the key 2.0000 level if prices break below the December 3 low of 2.0339. RSI is [..]

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