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China mulls more fiscal stimulus to lift growth as yuan slides to 4½-year low

Posted on December 30, 2015 at 12:39 pm GMT

China’s government is considering expanding the country’s budget deficit in 2016 to around 3% of GDP (the highest in decades) as it continues its attempts to stimulate growth. Government advisors are recommending that fiscal policy be used more forcefully to counter the slowdown. Economic growth is expected to average 6.8% in 2015, the slowest since the height of the financial crisis in 2009, and to slow to around 6.5% in 2016. Authorities in China have already carried out a series [..]

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Asian Session – Dollar drifts lower as oil prices head back down again

Posted on December 30, 2015 at 8:45 am GMT

The US dollar started the day mostly flat but off yesterday’s highs as trading volumes remained light in Wednesday’s Asian session. A rise in US treasury yields helped the dollar make gains yesterday. Two-year US treasury yields rose to the highest since April 2010 on Tuesday but were down from their peak today. The greenback started the session stronger against the yen, reaching a high of 120.57 yen but was down at 120.40 yen in late Asian trading. The euro [..]

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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD falls 1% this week, bearish in down sloping channel

Posted on December 30, 2015 at 7:36 am GMT

GBPUSD has fallen sharply in December. This week so far the pair has declined by over 1%, dropping from a peak of 1.4944 to an eight-month low of 1.4784, touched on Tuesday. The overall outlook for GBPUSD is bearish. Looking at the weekly chart, the pair has been falling in a downward sloping channel. Cable has been making lower lows and lower highs since declining in June this year, falling from a peak of 1.5929. Prices fell below the key [..]

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European Session – Euro under pressure, sterling dips to 8-month low, oil back above $37

Posted on December 29, 2015 at 3:21 pm GMT

The currency market was subdued in thin trading during the European session, in the absence of major data releases. There was more movement in early US session trading, which saw the dollar index move off a two-week low to rise to a high of 98.19. The euro fell sharply against the dollar to 1.0908 as the New York trading session started, falling from a high of 1.0990. The euro/dollar pair had mostly been stuck in a range since Monday until [..]

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Technical Analysis – NZDUSD rises above 200-DMA in year-end rally

Posted on December 29, 2015 at 1:59 pm GMT

NZDUSD climbed above the 200-day moving average for the first time since August 2014 as the pair extends its year-end rally. Prices hit a 2½-month high of 0.6880 and moved further above the Ichimoku cloud. The upside bias for the near term remains strong with both RSI and the stochastics still climbing. But there may be limited scope for further gains as the stochastics are firmly in overbought territory. The nearest resistance to watch out for is the October 15 [..]

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Mixed data keeps hopes of further easing by Bank of Japan alive for 2016

Posted on December 29, 2015 at 11:13 am GMT

A batch of economic data released in Japan over the Western holiday period has reiterated expectations that the Bank of Japan may yet expand its stimulus program in 2016. The yen in recent weeks has stood firm against the US dollar despite the Fed’s first rate hike in almost a decade as expectations of looser monetary policy anytime soon were dampened following signs of accelerating growth in Asia’s second largest economy. However, unemployment, industrial output and consumer spending data released [..]

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Asian Session – Oil prices stabilize; major currencies stuck in tight ranges in light holiday trading

Posted on December 29, 2015 at 8:18 am GMT

Oil prices stabilized on Tuesday following yesterday’s 3.6% slump. US oil futures were up 0.7% at $36.92 a barrel in late Asian session. Oil’s rebound helped Asian equities move higher and China’s main indices were up almost 1% in late Asian trading after starting the session in negative territory. Chinese shares fell by around 2.5% yesterday after weak industrial profits data renewed concerns about China’s economy. However, equities were supported today after the country’s central bank pledged on Monday to [..]

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Technical Analysis – USDJPY slips back towards key support at 120

Posted on December 29, 2015 at 7:43 am GMT

After testing the 123.00 level several times this month, USDJPY has fallen back down close to 120.00 this week, a key support level. Looking at the bigger picture, USDJPY has been consolidating around the key psychological level of 120.00 during the year 2015. The pair was in a steady uptrend since rising from 75.55 back in the year 2011. The market has traded above the weekly Ichimoku cloud since the end of 2012 and has also risen above the 200-week [..]

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European Session – Euro rises against major counterparts in quiet session

Posted on December 28, 2015 at 2:18 pm GMT

The European session was quiet as trading volumes were much lower than average in the absence of economic data. Also the London market, which is key for currency trading, was closed for local holidays today, which added to thin trading. Liquidity is expected to remain low in the run-up to the New Year. The euro was up against most of its major counterparts today. It gained about 0.3% against the yen to 132.02, after hitting as high as 132.45 during [..]

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Asian Session – Yen softens on disappointing Japanese data

Posted on December 28, 2015 at 8:05 am GMT

The start of the new trading week was relatively quiet due to the holiday season. The only data out of the Asian session was on Japanese industrial production and retail sales, both falling more than forecast. Japan’s industrial output fell 1.0% in November from October, more than the 0.6% drop that was forecast. Meanwhile, Japanese retail sales fell 1.0% in November from a year earlier. It missed forecasts for a smaller fall of 0.6%. The disappointing data out of Japan [..]

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