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European Session – Euro hits $1.09 before retreating on ECB minutes, loonie hits new 12-year low

Posted on January 14, 2016 at 3:15 pm GMT

The euro rallied above $1.09 versus the dollar but trimmed gains after the ECB minutes were released late in the European session and the pair dipped in to the $1.08 handle. The December 3 ECB Meeting Account showed that some of the Bank’s policy makers wanted more aggressive easing, with a bigger cut to the deposit facility rate rather than the actual 10 basis point cut. Some also wanted bigger asset purchases than what was announced. What led to euro [..]

Bank of England holds rates; expects inflation to rise more gradually

Posted on January 14, 2016 at 2:07 pm GMT

The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 0.5% at its monthly monetary policy meeting today. The announcement was widely expected by the markets but some analysts were expecting for the decision to be unanimous by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members. One policymaker, Ian McCafferty, had been voting since August 2015 for a 0.25% rise and was once again the sole dissenter at the January meeting. In its meeting minutes, which are released simultaneously with the decision announcement, [..]

Asian Session – Oil stabilizes from 12-year lows; dollar recovers from overnight lows

Posted on January 14, 2016 at 8:20 am GMT

Market sentiment turned negative again in US trading on Wednesday after oil reversed its daily gains to head back towards 12-year lows. WTI crude futures hit $30.10, having earlier traded above $31, after US gasoline inventories came in above estimates. Prices had stabilized around $30.94 a barrel today. Brent crude was hit harder though as sanctions on Iran could be lifted as early as Friday. Brent futures hit a 2004-low of $29.73 earlier today but were up at $30.48 in [..]

Technical Analysis – USDRUB rising close to all-time high

Posted on January 14, 2016 at 7:34 am GMT

USDRUB has been rising steadily within a channel since bouncing from the October 2015 low of 60.39. A high of 76.73 was hit this week, close to when prices spiked to an all-time high of 78.51. The bullish bias is being highlighted by the positively aligned tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines, which are both pointing upwards.(on the weekly chart) There is scope to target the all-time high of 78.51 hit back in December 2014. RSI is in bullish territory which indicates [..]

European Session – Dollar up but below highs; commodities rally on China data

Posted on January 13, 2016 at 3:30 pm GMT

European equities held on their gains from the morning as trade sentiment remained risk on. Markets were given a boost earlier today from better-than-expected trade data from China, which showed exports and imports declining at a slower pace than in recent months. A steadier yuan also helped market sentiment. The euro came under pressure against the dollar as safe-havens lost their appeal. The single currency hit a low of 1.0804 dollars before climbing back up to 1.0847 dollars in late [..]

Improved Chinese trade data lifts market sentiment as exports decline eases

Posted on January 13, 2016 at 11:58 am GMT

China’s monthly trade figures provided some rare positive news out of the country today as both exports and imports declined by a slower pace in December. Exports fell by 1.4% year-on-year last month, beating expectations of an 8% drop and compares with a fall of 6.8% in November. Imports also continued to decline but the rate eased to -7.6% in December from -8.7% the prior month. The figure was sharply below estimates of an 11.5% drop. Exports have been fallen [..]

Asian Session – China trade falls less than expected; Dollar back above 118 yen

Posted on January 13, 2016 at 8:54 am GMT

Trade data out of China today surprised on the upside as both exports and imports fell less than expected in December. Exports declined by 1.4% year-on-year in December, far above expectations of an 8% drop. Imports also fared better than expected, falling by 7.6% year-on-year versus estimates of an 11.5% drop. For the year as a whole, exports declined for the first time since 2009 but December’s figures may be a sign that the economy is stabilizing. Markets cheered the [..]

Technical Analysis – EURUSD sees more downside pressure, remains inside Ichimoku cloud

Posted on January 13, 2016 at 8:04 am GMT

EURUSD has seen some downside pressure this week, bringing the pair to the lower end of the 1.08 handle. There is a barrier to the upside around 1.0850 and this is the 38.2% retracement of the December bullish run from 1.0520 to 1.1058. The technical outlook is neutral-to-bearish, given that the market remains below the 200-day moving average and prices are stuck inside the daily Ichimoku cloud. The tenkan-sen has crossed below the kijun-sen line, giving a bearish signal. Momentum [..]

European Session – Pound falls on weak data but dollar firmer; Oil sees brief rebound

Posted on January 12, 2016 at 3:38 pm GMT

European equities rose sharply on Tuesday as risk sentiment returned in early European session. A firmer yuan and gains in China’s main indices helped restore some confidence in the markets. The US dollar reversed earlier losses to head higher and oil prices attempted to make the first daily gain in 2016. Comments by several central bank officials appeared to have little impact as market attention was focused on developments in China and in crude oil prices. On Monday, Dallas Fed [..]

Pound under pressure again as UK production posts surprise drop in November

Posted on January 12, 2016 at 11:31 am GMT

Manufacturing output in the UK fell for the second month in a row in November, while overall industrial production was hit by falling energy output due to mild weather conditions. The British pound dropped below 1.45 dollars after the data as today’s numbers add to the increasingly bearish sentiment for the UK currency. Manufacturing production was down by 0.4% month-on-month in November, matching October’s decline. Consensus estimates were for manufacturing output to expand by 0.1%. On an annual basis, output [..]

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