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Asian Session – China economy continues to slow; dollar up on stimulus hopes

Posted on January 19, 2016 at 8:19 am GMT

Economic growth in China slowed in the final quarter of 2015 to 6.8% year-on-year, in line with estimates. The figure was the lowest growth since the financial crisis in 2009, while annual growth for the whole of 2015 eased to the slowest since 1990 at 6.9%. In other data release today, industrial production in December came in slightly below expectations at 5.9% and retail sales also disappointed at 11.1% versus estimates of 11.3%. Fixed-asset investment in urban areas also continued [..]

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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD resumes downtrend?

Posted on January 19, 2016 at 7:51 am GMT

AUDUSD has fallen sharply since its December highs above 0.7300. The pair has breached key support, the September 2015 low of 0.6906, to fall to a new multi-year low of 0.6826 last week. The market has been consolidating since then but the daily technical indicators are bearish. The tenkan and kijun lines are negatively aligned and the Ichimoku cloud is falling. There is scope to target the October 2008 low of 0.6008. RSI is in bearish territory and not yet [..]

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European Session – Oil stabilizes at $29, Canadian dollar bounces

Posted on January 18, 2016 at 3:45 pm GMT

Currency markets are starting the week off on a calmer note, benefiting from a slight improvement in risk appetite. The safe haven Japanese yen weakened as a result and was one of the worst performing major currencies on the day. A quiet economic calendar helped keep markets subdued. It is also a bank holiday in the US. However the week will get busier, with market focus turning to central bank meetings in the Eurozone and Canada, while investors will also [..]

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Oil rout intensifies as Iran re-enters global oil market

Posted on January 18, 2016 at 11:40 am GMT

Oil prices extended their slide on Monday after the international community decided to lift sanctions on Iran over the weekend. The decision to ease sanctions against Iran comes after the International Atomic Energy Agency said in its report that Iran has fulfilled its obligations under last year’s nuclear accord that prohibits Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Analysts estimate that Iran will be able to raise production by 500,000 barrels a day immediately after the suspension of sanctions. This would add [..]

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Asian Session – Oil plunges to 2003 levels as Iran sanctions lifted

Posted on January 18, 2016 at 8:21 am GMT

Oil prices came under fresh pressure today as international sanctions on Iran were lifted, paving the way for Iranian oil exports. WTI and Brent crude futures slumped below $29 a barrel for the first time since 2003. US crude contracts were last trading at $28.80 a barrel, having earlier touched a low of $28.35. Stock markets in the Middle East and in Asia fell sharply in response to the latest plunge in oil prices. Safe haven currencies such as the [..]

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Technical Analysis – Oil falls into $28 handle, bearish bias strong

Posted on January 18, 2016 at 7:46 am GMT

The breakdown below the key $30 level last week has triggered a new downleg for oil prices. After closing at $29.61 on Friday, US oil opened with a gap lower to spike down to $28.35 early on Monday. There is scope for a further decline as the technical are bearish. On the hourly chart, the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines are negatively aligned and RSI is falling in bearish territory. Looking at the bigger picture, on the weekly chart, prices have [..]

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European Session – Canadian dollar hammered to fresh 12-year lows as oil falls below $30

Posted on January 15, 2016 at 3:41 pm GMT

Currency markets were unsettled today as negative sentiment resumed and investors were reluctant to take on risk. As a result, safe havens were supported while the commodity currencies came under pressure. The euro rallied versus the dollar to above $1.0900, supported by the risk off environment and was up 0.8% on the day so far. Sterling retained a weak bias and cable dropped to fresh 5-year lows below $1.4330. The commodity currencies under-performed and oil has fallen back below $30 [..]

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Week Ahead – Busy week for China, Eurozone and UK data; ECB and Bank of Canada meetings also eyed

Posted on January 15, 2016 at 11:43 am GMT

Economic data will be getting into full swing next week with a number of key releases for China, the United States, the Eurozone and Britain. Central banks will also be in focus as the ECB meets for the first time since December when it underwhelmed markets with its policy decision, while the Bank of Canada could cut interest rates for the first time since July 2015. The week will initially get off to a quiet start as US markets will [..]

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Asian Session – Oil prices reverse back down again but dollar steady

Posted on January 15, 2016 at 8:26 am GMT

US shares rebounded strongly on Thursday as crude oil prices closed over 2% higher. But Asian equities were mostly in negative territory on Friday as oil was sharply back down on looming supply from Iran. WTI crude futures gained 2.4% yesterday on reports that Russia was considering cutting oil production in 2016 but prices had fallen to $30.37 a barrel in late Asian session today. Data showing that bank lending in China rose less than expected in December also weighed [..]

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Technical Analysis – EURJPY bearish, falling in a channel

Posted on January 15, 2016 at 7:58 am GMT

EURJPY is very bearish as the pair continues to fall within a downward sloping channel that began from the June 2015 high of 141.04. The pair is trading below the daily Ichimoku cloud and below the 200-day moving average. The tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines are negatively aligned and pointing downwards, giving a bearish signal. After breaching the key 130.00 level prices have scope to fall towards the 126.08 low from April 2015. RSI is in bearish territory below 50 but [..]

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