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Market turmoil boosts safe havens as global equities slump

Posted on February 9, 2016 at 1:30 pm GMT

Volatility in financial markets intensified on Monday and Tuesday, leading investors to seek safety in less risky assets. Safe-haven currencies like the yen and the Swiss franc have risen sharply, while government bond yields such as that of Japan, the US and Germany have dropped to near or at record lows. Equities have been the main losers in the current market rout. US indices fell sharply for a second day on Monday and the S&P 500 is down 9.3% since [..]

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Nowhere to hide? Turmoil presents tough choices to investors

Posted on February 9, 2016 at 1:18 pm GMT

The latest episode of volatility in financial markets has been a defining characteristic of the trading environment since the beginning of the year.  In this environment, key relationships and trends of previous periods – such as the unquestioning belief in the US dollar uptrend or confidence in the mostly positive outlook for developed economies and their stock markets – have been seriously shaken.  Many investors are looking for safe havens as shelters in which to weather this storm and some [..]

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Asian Session – Yen gains as global stock sell-off continues but oil rebounds

Posted on February 9, 2016 at 8:39 am GMT

Global stock markets saw sharp losses on Monday and Tuesday as fears about global growth hit investor confidence. US equities reversed earlier heavy losses with the S&P 500 closing 1.4% lower yesterday, having been down by almost 3% at one point. Banking stocks were particularly hit as growth concerns and a prolonged period of low interest rates weighed on the sector. Japanese shares were the worst hit with the Nikkei 225 index slumping by 5.4% at the close on a [..]

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Technical Analysis – USDJPY falls to 14-month low, bearish bias

Posted on February 9, 2016 at 8:22 am GMT

USDJPY has dropped to its lowest level since November 2014, falling below the key 115.00 level to a low of 114.20 early on Tuesday. The pair failed to sustain a rise above 120.00 and tumbled below it on Feb 3. The 50-day moving average was breached and since then prices have been falling to finally reach a 14-month low of 114.20 today. The bias is bearish as the MACD is below zero. The 50-day moving average has crossed below the [..]

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European Session – Widening yield spreads hits euro; dollar drops to 1-year low below 116 yen

Posted on February 8, 2016 at 3:17 pm GMT

European equities slumped on Monday as market sentiment turned risk-off despite a calm start to the week in Asia. London’s FTSE-100 index was down by around 2%, while the Frankfurt Dax was off by 2.7%. Concerns about the global economy were heightened today after figures out on Sunday showed the People’s Bank of China spent almost $100 billion of reserves to prop-up the yuan against the dollar in January. This indicates that the yuan is facing continued pressure amid a [..]

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Technical Analysis – EURUSD back above 200-DMA as bias turns bullish

Posted on February 8, 2016 at 10:49 am GMT

EURUSD is attempting another upside push today but remains below last week’s peak when it rallied above the 200-day moving average. The weekly gains took it just below the 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement level of the August – December downleg. The 61.8% retracement level is likely to act as resistance level around 1.1255. Further gains are possible in the near term as the MACD has turned positive again and RSI is holding strong just below overbought level. In the [..]

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Asian Session – Dollar steady and markets muted in thin holiday trading

Posted on February 8, 2016 at 9:11 am GMT

The US dollar was flat in thin Asian trading at the start of the week, as the greenback held on to its post non-farm payroll gains from Friday. With many markets closed for the Lunar New Year, the only major data out today was from Japan. Japan’s current account surplus in December was smaller than expected, while wage growth data showed earnings remained muted in 2015. Average wages rose by 0.1% year-on-year in December but were down 0.1% in real [..]

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Technical Analysis – GBPCAD at risk of trend reversal

Posted on February 8, 2016 at 8:28 am GMT

GBPCAD has been trading in a range since mid-2015, between 1.9800 and 2.0970. If the important support level at 1.9800 is broken to the downside, this will confirm the formation of a double top chart pattern, which is a trend reversal pattern. Such a move would reverse the uptrend that was in place since the beginning of January 2013. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.9887 is acting as immediate support. This is the retracement level of the rise from [..]

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US jobs growth slows in January but wage growth beats estimates

Posted on February 5, 2016 at 3:35 pm GMT

Non-farm payrolls increased at the slowest pace in four months in January as jobs growth fell back after the holiday season at the end of the year. The change in non-farm payrolls last month was 151k – below consensus estimates of 190k and below the 200k plus rate seen in the previous three months. There was a downward revision to last month’s figure, but for the whole of 2015, there were 85k more jobs created than initially estimated. Strong employment [..]

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European Session – Dollar stages post-NFP rally after quiet session

Posted on February 5, 2016 at 3:12 pm GMT

Markets spent the day anticipating the all-important nonfarm payrolls report with limited movement across the major currencies. While the actual NFP figure is important, the average hourly earnings are equally important given the Fed’s focus on inflation. The headline payroll number for January showed a sharp slowdown in job creation in the US. Employers added 151,000 jobs at the start of the year, down from 262,000 in December. Most polls showed an expectation of 190,000 jobs. The dollar’s knee jerk [..]

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