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European Session – Euro rises to $1.06; dollar weak ahead of Trump budget speech

Posted on February 27, 2017 at 4:00 pm GMT

The euro strengthened against the dollar on news of more favorable opinion polls for independent French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron. The US dollar lagged against most major counterparts despite upbeat durable goods orders data, as investors await US President Donald Trump’s address to Congress on Tuesday when he is expected to reveal details of his spending plans and tax cuts. Trump’s speech may disappoint the markets if he does not give more specifics in terms of numbers or a more [..]

Technical Analysis – GBPUSD tests critical 1.24 level; finds support at moving averages

Posted on February 27, 2017 at 8:55 am GMT

GBPUSD fell close to a 2-week low in Asian trading today to touch 1.2390 after spiking below the 100-day moving average (MA). The intra-day bias is to the downside, with important support being provided by the 50-day MA. The RSI has dipped below 50, indicating risk is to the downside. The medium-term outlook is neutral as the pair has been trading sideways since January 23. The market has been testing the key 1.2400 level, which has acted as a support [..]

Asian Session – Dollar lacks momentum ahead of Trump speech; Pound falls on Scottish referendum talk

Posted on February 27, 2017 at 7:42 am GMT

Sterling was the worst performing major currency in the Asian session today on reports of a possible Scottish independence vote. The dollar lacked momentum ahead of a raft of US economic data and speeches by President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen this week. The pound dipped as much as 0.6 percent against the dollar to touch a session low of 1.2390 after a Times newspaper report said UK Prime Minister Theresa May could agree to a new [..]

European Session – Trump reflation trade in doubt again, dollar slightly down

Posted on February 24, 2017 at 4:34 pm GMT

Barring Canadian inflation data, US new home sales, and the final print of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index there were no important economic data releases hitting the markets today. Market participants were for the most part digesting developments in the political scene and placing positions accordingly. The dollar has gained significantly on expectations of fiscal reforms by the Trump administration. However, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s latest comments on expecting tax reforms to start benefitting the economy next [..]

Week Ahead – Busy week for US and Japan data; Trump Congress address also eyed

Posted on February 24, 2017 at 3:59 pm GMT

The United States and Japan will have the busiest calendars next week for economic data, while Australian growth figures and the Bank of Canada’s policy meeting will also come into focus. In other data, Eurozone flash inflation numbers should attract some attention too. But President Trump’s joint address in Congress could prove the biggest market mover if he outlines details on the much talked about tax reforms. Australian economy expected to rebound in Q4 After a surprise contraction in the [..]

Technical Analysis – AUDJPY in bullish consolidation near 14-month highs

Posted on February 24, 2017 at 2:12 pm GMT

AUDJPY hit a 14-month high of 88.16 on February 16 before reversing. The near-term bias is to the downside as the RSI has dipped below 50. Further downside can be confined by the 50-day moving average at 0.8575. A break below this would open the way towards 85.00. This 85.00 psychological level also coincides with the lower Bollinger Band, making it an important support level. The market was able to hold above this area since January 9. A sustained break below [..]

Technical Analysis – AUDUSD bullish in the near-term after hitting a fifteen-week high

Posted on February 24, 2017 at 8:14 am GMT

AUDUSD is currently more or less unchanged from the day’s open. Yesterday it recorded a fifteen-week high of 0.7740. Looking at the Ichimoku analysis, the positive alignment when the Tenkan-sen line (red) crossed the Kijun-sen (blue) in mid-January is still in place. This bullish short-term signal is reinforced by the RSI indicator, which is at currently at 64, well above the 50 neutral level. On the upside, yesterday’s high (0.7740) is expected to provide resistance. A successful break above it [..]

Asian Session – Gold at 3-month highs on softer dollar after Mnuchin comments

Posted on February 24, 2017 at 7:58 am GMT

Gold consolidated gains at a 3-month high as the US dollar was on track to end the week with losses. The greenback touched a 2-week low against the yen on Thursday after being weighed by disappointing US jobless claims data and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s remarks. The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits increased by 6,000 to 244,000 in the week ending February 18 from the previous week’s revised total of 238,000. Expectations were for jobless claims to [..]

Asian Session – Euro recovers as French election concerns ease; dollar steadies after drop following FOMC minutes

Posted on February 23, 2017 at 8:11 am GMT

The US dollar fell sharply after the release of the FOMC minutes late on Wednesday. Despite saying that a rate hike would be appropriate ‘fairly soon’, the minutes of the January 31- February 1 Fed policy meeting did not pinpoint a March hike. Since the markets did not view the minutes as hawkish as was hoped for, the dollar was sold off, and it fell below the key 113-yen level briefly. In the minutes, there appeared to be a lack [..]

Technical Analysis – USDJPY neutral in the short- and medium-term

Posted on February 23, 2017 at 8:04 am GMT

USDJPY has been experiencing some minor losses since the day’s open after closing lower the day before. The RSI indicator is currently below but close to the 50 neutral level at 48. It has been around 50 over the last number of days of mostly sideways movement and relatively low intra-day volatility. The MACD histogram is painting a similar picture as it is slightly negative, but above the red signal line. The current level of the 50-day moving average (MA) [..]

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