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European Session – Dollar falls after soft PCE data but pauses after rise in pending home sales

Posted on March 28, 2016 at 2:44 pm GMT

Due to the Easter holiday on Monday, currency markets were thin during the European session. Most major currency pairs traded in a range as investors awaited the US data. During most of the European session, the euro traded within Friday’s range against the dollar, between $1.1150 and $1.1175, as there were no news releases out of Europe. Sterling was also in a tight range just below $1.4150 before edging higher. By the time US markets opened and the US economic [..]

Asian Session – Yen under pressure while dollar shines ahead of key data and Yellen’s speech

Posted on March 28, 2016 at 7:45 am GMT

The yen fell during Monday’s subdued trading, with many markets remaining closed following the Easter Sunday holiday. Financial markets in Hong Kong, Australia and New Zealand were closed, while in Europe key markets such as Germany, France and the UK would also be shut; making for a quiet European session most probably. Things should get more interesting once the United States reopens later in the day, with the release of personal income and spending as well as the Fed’s favorite [..]

Technical Analysis – USDJPY extends upside momentum

Posted on March 28, 2016 at 7:07 am GMT

USDJPY maintains a neutral bias since early February, as prices remain within a range between 111.00 and 114.00. The short term momentum continues upward, as indicated by the rising RSI. Prices rebounded from 110.65 that was reached on March 17. This suggests a bottom could be in place at this low. The current rally is finding resistance at the 50% Fibonacci level(around 113.50). This retracement is of the rise from 101.19 to 125.84 (July 2014 to May 2015 rise). Continued [..]

‘Brexit’ fears haunt pound while Fed speakers wrong-foot dollar bears

Posted on March 24, 2016 at 3:39 pm GMT

Strangely enough from a financial markets’ viewpoint, the biggest loser from the Brussels terrorist attacks was the British pound. The attacks made ‘Brexit’ more likely according to analysts, as British voters might seek to distance themselves from the European Union and the terrorist attacks that took place first in Paris back in November last year and now in Brussels. Immigration is a key issue in the referendum. Furthermore, the resignation of a senior minister from David Cameron’s government during the [..]

European Session – Dollar reverses gains after durables goods orders but up on the week so far

Posted on March 24, 2016 at 3:23 pm GMT

The pound bounced off one-week lows versus the dollar as the Brexit and Brussels-driven weakness was overturned by UK data this morning. Retail sales in February was not as bad as expected and posted a 0.4% decline month-on-month versus a 0.7% drop expected. This followed from a 2.3% gain in January. Meanwhile, the annual figure showed a 3.8% gain as expected. Sterling rebounded off $1.4056 to rise to a session high of $1.4146. The stronger pound pushed the euro off [..]

Technical Analysis – AUDJPY holds on to positive bias above cloud

Posted on March 24, 2016 at 3:05 pm GMT

AUDJPY has held on to its recent gains that saw it rallying above the 50-day moving average and the Ichimoku cloud. The pair has retraced a little more than 50% of the December-February downtrend from 90.71 to 77.57. The 11% rally from the 3½ year-low of 77.57 to the March 14 high 86.40 has shifted the near term bias to a positive one. Both the RSI and the MACD are still in positive territory, though on slightly weakened momentum. The [..]

Week Ahead – Important week for US data after rate talk triggers dollar rally

Posted on March 24, 2016 at 2:21 pm GMT

The coming week looks set to get busy after the long Easter weekend, particularly for the US, which will see some key data releases such as the monthly non-farm payrolls report. Also to come into focus will be the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey, Eurozone flash inflation and manufacturing PMI out of China. United States The United States will be one of few Western markets open on Monday when many European markets will be closed for the Western Easter celebrations. [..]

Asian Session – Dollar eyes 113 yen as commodities continue to retreat

Posted on March 24, 2016 at 9:12 am GMT

Fed rate hike talk continued to drive the dollar higher on Thursday, helping the dollar index climb to a one-week high of 96.30 during Asian trading. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard was another Fed official to speak this week. In an interview on Bloomberg TV yesterday, Bullard said the Fed runs the risk of overshooting its inflation target. However, he also expressed concern about raising interest rates at a time of weak inflation expectations. The dollar attempted to break [..]

Technical Analysis – EURGBP holds bullish outlook

Posted on March 24, 2016 at 8:04 am GMT

The bullish outlook for EURGBP is in tact as the pair remains above the key 0.7500 level. After the formation of a double bottom trend reversal pattern, the market rose to the highest level in over 15 months around the 0.7930 area. The scope for more upside is supported by the fact that prices have crossed above the 50% long term Fibonacci retracement level (0.7870) of the downleg from 0.8813 to 0.6935 (February 2013 to July 2015 decline). The next [..]

European Session – Dollar climbs to one-week highs but gold tumbles

Posted on March 23, 2016 at 3:34 pm GMT

European equity markets opened higher on Wednesday as fears of a wider security threat following the Brussels attacks yesterday receded. Helping market sentiment were improved business survey readings for the Eurozone and Germany, which got overshadowed yesterday from the terror attacks. The data included the flash Eurozone PMI numbers for March, which showed the first quarter looks set to end on a more positive note after the dismal start to the year. The dominant theme on Wednesday was the strength [..]

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