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Technical Analysis – US oil futures descend towards 50-DMA

Posted on April 4, 2016 at 7:31 am GMT

US oil futures opened lower on Monday to extend their losses to a ninth straight day. Oil has been heading lower since peaking at 42.47 on March 18, which was a 54% rally from the January low of 27.54. Prices have fallen below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-March upleg and the next support level is likely to come at the 50% Fibonacci level at 35.0. This is also where the 50-day moving average is converging. A break [..]

European Session – Dollar bounces higher after strong NFP, earnings growth

Posted on April 1, 2016 at 3:04 pm GMT

The US dollar saw some volatility after the release of stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls data, which dragged US and European equities lower on Friday. Non-farm payrolls in the United States rose by 215k in March, slightly stronger than the expected figure of 205k but below February’s reading of 245k. The unemployment rate edged up to 5.0% despite the healthy jobs gain as the labor force participation rate increased to 63.0% from 62.9%, meaning that more Americans had entered the workforce. What [..]

Week Ahead – RBA meeting and industrial output in focus

Posted on April 1, 2016 at 12:22 pm GMT

The first week of the second quarter of 2016 looks set to start on a calm note with European industrial output data and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s April policy meeting likely to dominate the next seven days. Eurozone The Eurozone will have the busiest week starting with unemployment, producer prices and the Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index all out on Monday. Producer prices in February are expected to fall deeper into negative territory from -2.9% to -4.0%, highlighting the [..]

Technical Analysis – EURUSD maintains positive bias in ascending channel

Posted on April 1, 2016 at 8:34 am GMT

EURUSD has retraced about 75% of the downtrend from the August 2015 high of 1.1713 to the December 2015 low of 1.0521 after crossing above the 1.14 handle on Thursday. The pair has been setting higher highs and higher lows since the December trough to move in an ascending channel. The 50-day moving average recently crossed above the 200-day moving average in what is a bullish signal but the flatlining 200-day moving average puts into question the strength of the [..]

Asian Session – Dollar flat ahead of NFP; China PMI turns positive

Posted on April 1, 2016 at 7:28 am GMT

Business sentiment surveys dominated Asian trading on the first day of April as key manufacturing indicators out of Japan and China were released. In China, the official manufacturing PMI turned positive for the first time in nine months as the index rose from 49.0 in February to 50.2 in March, beating forecasts of 49.3. The surprise reading, which indicates that manufacturing activity expanded slightly last month, may be a sign that the sector is turning the corner. However, analysts cautioned [..]

European Session – Euro rallies to 1.14 as dollar under pressure

Posted on March 31, 2016 at 2:55 pm GMT

The euro rallied to its highest level against the greenback in five months to 1.1411, helped by a broadly weaker dollar. The greenback remained under pressure on the last day of the first quarter of the year. The euro’s rise did not appear to be impacted much by data out of the Eurozone today. Flash CPI data for the region showed some improvement at -0.1% year-on-year in March from -0.2% y/y in February. While this was in line with expectations, [..]

Dollar gets clobbered during first quarter in surprise twist

Posted on March 31, 2016 at 2:18 pm GMT

This was not supposed to happen while in the middle of a US dollar upswing. The greenback was the second-worst performing major currency during the first quarter, besting only the beleaguered UK pound which is facing big political and economic risk in June in the form of the EU in/out referendum. Interestingly, two currencies whose central banks took stimulus action during the first quarter; the yen and the euro, did relatively well. Particularly the yen was the best performer despite [..]

Euro climbs to 5-month high as Eurozone core CPI edges higher

Posted on March 31, 2016 at 2:16 pm GMT

The euro continued to be dragged higher by the retreating dollar on Thursday and the single currency got a further lift by a rise in Eurozone inflation. Euro area CPI rose to -0.1% year-on-year in March according to the flash reading from Eurostat. The figure is in line with consensus estimates and is up from -0.2% in February. More significantly, core CPI, which excludes food and energy, edged up to 0.9% in March from 0.8% the prior month and was [..]

Asian Session – Dollar sell-off stalls; aussie and kiwi ease from 9-month highs

Posted on March 31, 2016 at 8:17 am GMT

Global equities continued to make gains following Yellen’s dovish outlook on Tuesday, which boosted risk-on sentiment. The Dow Jones and the S&P 500 indices in the US both closed at a new high for 2016 on Wednesday, while in Europe, shares in London and Frankfurt rallied to end the day 1.6% higher. However, stocks in Asia were mixed on Thursday with Tokyo and Hong Kong giving up earlier gains. The US dollar paused its three-day slide on Thursday to stand [..]

Technical Analysis – NZDUSD rises above 0.6900 for first time in nine months

Posted on March 31, 2016 at 7:22 am GMT

NZDUSD broke above a key resistance level on Wednesday, closing above 0.6900 for the first time in nine months. The pair also tested a key Fibonacci level at 0.6941– the 50% retracement level of the decline from 0.7743 to 0.6139 (April to August 2015 decline). After hitting a 9-month high of 0.6964 yesterday, the pair reversed back down and fell below the 50% Fibonacci. Support lies at 0.6754, around where the 38.2% Fibonacci level exists. This is an important support [..]

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