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US retail sales disappoint again; dollar rise capped

Posted on April 13, 2016 at 3:07 pm GMT

Retail sales in the United States ended the first quarter in a downbeat mode as they declined by 0.3% between February and March. Expectations were for retail sales to rise by 0.1% month-on-month in March. An upward revision to February’s figure was not enough to lift the gloom for the first quarter as it was only revised up from -0.1% to 0.0%, while January’s reading was revised down from 0.2% to -0.4%. March retail spending was dragged lower by a [..]

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Mid-European Session – Dollar rebounds on strong China data; Yen and euro sag

Posted on April 13, 2016 at 10:37 am GMT

Asian and European equity markets were boosted on Wednesday by a surprise improvement in Chinese trade in March. China reported an 11.5% year-on-year jump in exports in March, beating expectations of a 2.5% increase. The figure was a sharp turnaround from the 25.3% drop in February. Imports also surprised on the upside as they declined by 7.6% versus estimates of a 10.2% drop. Analysts cautioned that the big jump in exports may be due to seasonal factors. However, investors were [..]

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Technical Analysis – EURGBP rally stalls and reverses below 0.80

Posted on April 13, 2016 at 5:25 am GMT

EURGBP has staged a strong rally from the November 2015 lows of 0.6981 to rise in an ascending channel to reach a high of 0.8116 last week on April 7. Prices have since reversed lower after failing to close above a key level at 0.8091. This is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the downleg from 0.8813 to 0.6935 (February 2013 to July 2015 decline). This has acted as a strong resistance level that was tested a few times until [..]

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European Session – Sterling jumps, aussie outperforms, oil above $40

Posted on April 12, 2016 at 2:20 pm GMT

Demand for haven assets faded today and the yen slipped against all its major counterparts, while commodity-linked currencies gained as crude oil advanced above $40 a barrel. Sterling extended gains for a third day against the dollar following UK data showing an upside surprise to inflation. Headline CPI beat forecasts to rise 0.4% in March on a month-on-month basis, raising the year-over-year rate to 0.5%, the highest since the end of 2014. The pound jumped after the data to break [..]

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Technical Analysis – NZDJPY bearish despite 3-day rally

Posted on April 12, 2016 at 1:41 pm GMT

NZDJPY looks set to achieve a third straight day of sharp gains, having rebounded from the April 4 low of 72.86 to an intra-day high of 74.96 today. RSI is trending up on the fresh upside momentum but has yet to cross above 50. The MACD also remains in negative territory and without further gains, the near-term bias will remain bearish. Prices found resistance just below 75 today but could yet break above the level if the upside momentum is [..]

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UK inflation at 15-month high; sterling pushes above 1.43 dollars

Posted on April 12, 2016 at 10:54 am GMT

British consumer prices rose at the fastest pace since December 2014 in March as higher air fares and clothing prices drove up the headline inflation rate. Annual CPI accelerated to 0.5% in March from 0.3% in February, beating expectations of a smaller rise to 0.4%. On a month-on-month basis, CPI was up by 0.4%, above estimates of a 0.3% increase. Core inflation, which excludes food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices, also picked up pace, rising by 1.5% year-on-year. The figure [..]

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Asian Session – Dollar slips to 8-month lows; aussie firms on rising business confidence

Posted on April 12, 2016 at 7:45 am GMT

The US dollar was steady in Tuesday’s Asian session but stuck near the 8-month lows it set yesterday against a basket of currencies. After hitting a fresh 17-month low versus the yen on Monday, the dollar clawed back above 108 yen during Asian trading today and was last at 108.32 yen. The euro and the pound also rebounded from their respective lows versus the yen as Japanese government officials upped their verbal warnings against further yen gains. On Tuesday, Japan’s [..]

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Technical Analysis – USDCAD bearish below key $1.30 level

Posted on April 12, 2016 at 7:00 am GMT

USDCAD continues to fall in a descending channel. The outlook remains bearish especially after prices fell below a key level on Monday, breaking below 1.3000 and $1.2900 to reach $1.2884. A daily close below $1.2900 could see a continuation of the bearish trend that started from the multi-year peak of 1.4689 in January (the highest in more than 12 years). RSI is below 50 in bearish territory, supporting the downside momentum. The 50-day moving average is falling sharply and approaching [..]

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European Session – Sterling bounces, loonie gains on rising oil prices

Posted on April 11, 2016 at 2:55 pm GMT

It was quiet start to the week for the currency markets as there were no major data releases today. There was barely any reaction to Chinese inflation data this morning. Sterling surprisingly outperformed today while the yen gave back gains made after last week’s strong rally, as risk appetite picked up a bit today. An improved mood in the markets helped stocks rally in Europe. Cable was the main pair that stood out as it rose from levels just above [..]

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Technical Analysis – Gold at 3-week high on fresh upside momentum

Posted on April 11, 2016 at 1:27 pm GMT

Gold prices rose to the highest in three weeks on Monday, reaching 1254.14 on renewed upside momentum. Prices have eased from the 1-year high of 1283.42 set one month ago and technical indicators have weakened since. The weakened momentum is underlined by the tenkan-sen line moving below the kijun-sen line for the first time since December. However, last week’s gains have prevented the MACD from turning negative, helping sustain the positive bias for the near term. But with the stochastics [..]

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