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Aussie plummets 2% after surprise drop in Australian inflation

Posted on April 27, 2016 at 10:42 am GMT

The Australian dollar fell sharply against major currencies on Tuesday after an unexpected drop in Australia’s quarterly CPI rate renewed expectations of a rate cut by the country’s central bank. Consumer prices in Australia declined by 0.2% on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the first three months of 2016, missing expectations of a 0.3% increase. On an annual basis, CPI was up 1.3% – the lowest in a year. It compares with forecasts of 1.8% and a rate of 1.7% in [..]

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Asian Session – Dollar extends slide ahead of FOMC; aussie plunges on weak inflation

Posted on April 27, 2016 at 7:37 am GMT

The US dollar continued to slip against major currencies on Wednesday ahead of the FOMC policy announcement later today. Although the Fed is almost certain to keep rates unchanged at its meeting today, investors will be anxiously waiting for the FOMC statement to check whether the committee see the downside risks to the US economy as having increased or diminished since March. A dovish outlook would reduce the probability of a June rate hike and keep the pressure on the [..]

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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD pauses recent bullish trend, drops below 0.77

Posted on April 27, 2016 at 7:06 am GMT

AUDUSD is seeing a shift from the recent bullish bias after breaking below the key 0.77 level this morning. The pair staged a strong rally from the January low of 0.6826 to the April high of 0.7833. Prices are now targeting another key level at 0.7600. This also happens to be the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 0.6826 to 0.7833. If this support fails, the next target support level would be the key 0.7500 level. If the [..]

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European Session – Dollar weakness ahead of Fed pushes pound and euro higher

Posted on April 26, 2016 at 2:56 pm GMT

The US dollar was once again under pressure today, with its European session decline continuing into the US session open. Pre-FOMC positioning in the dollar have driven moves in the currency markets today. While no rate hike is expected, investors are nevertheless being cautious ahead of this key risk event on Wednesday. The euro and the pound outperformed, breaking important psychological levels. Sterling rallied to a more than 2-month high of $1.4637. Aside from the broadly weaker greenback, lending support [..]

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US durable goods orders miss estimates; dollar dips

Posted on April 26, 2016 at 2:25 pm GMT

Durable goods orders in the United States rose by less than expected in March as orders for manufactured goods that are meant to last three years or more failed to rebound strongly from the February slump. The month-on-month measure of durable goods showed orders rising by 0.8% in March, missing consensus estimates of a 1.8% increase. Adding to the disappointing headline figure was a negative revision to February’s reading, which was revised down to -3.1% from -3.0%. March orders were [..]

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When will sterling become a ‘normal’ currency again?

Posted on April 26, 2016 at 1:18 pm GMT

For the past 6 months or so, the British currency has been under the heavy influence of political risk due to the ‘Brexit’ vote.  Speculation that the UK might have to leave the European Union, according to the outcome of the June referendum, have been plaguing the currency.  The exact impact of such a decision is very difficult to measure; the ‘leave’ camp claims it will not have any appreciable effect while the ‘remain’ camp warns of a serious economic [..]

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Technical Analysis – USDJPY finds resistance at 50-DMA

Posted on April 26, 2016 at 9:15 am GMT

USDJPY rallied to a three-week high of 111.86 yen on Monday but the pair’s gains were capped by the 50-day moving average. Prices have eased back below the 111 level today as the upside momentum fades. RSI is trending down but remains above 50, suggesting some positive momentum still in place. The MACD however points to ongoing downward bias for the pair, which is unlikely to shift to positive without a stronger rally. The broader negative outlook is underlined by [..]

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Asian Session – Dollar steady, markets muted ahead of Fed and BoJ

Posted on April 26, 2016 at 7:40 am GMT

Major currencies were steady in today’s Asian session as trading turned cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the Bank of Japan meeting on Thursday. The US dollar was mostly flat against a basket of currencies but fell against the yen as investors speculated over whether the Bank of Japan will announce fresh stimulus measures at its April policy meeting. The Bank of Japan will likely consider easing monetary policy further at its two-day meeting and may have [..]

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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD gains upside momentum to reach 2-month high

Posted on April 26, 2016 at 7:08 am GMT

GBPUSD has turned more bullish in the short term after rising to a two-month high of 1.4518 on Monday and is currently consolidating gains at this level. This area is the upper end of the range the pair has been trading in since early March. Prices moved above the daily Ichimoku cloud a week ago and the tenkan-sen line has crossed above the kijun-sen line, giving a bullish signal. Other technical indicators have turned bullish also, such as the RSI [..]

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European Session – Sterling rallies on lower Brexit fears, dollar broadly weaker ahead of Fed

Posted on April 25, 2016 at 2:57 pm GMT

Broad dollar weakness was the main theme of the currency markets today as investors took on a more cautious tone ahead of a key risk event on Wednesday, when the FOMC announces its rate decision. The dollar gave back some of last week’s gain against the euro and the yen. Sterling outperformed against the dollar on shifting sentiment regarding Brexit. Data out of the European session consisted of the German IFO survey which slightly disappointed. The euro barely reacted to [..]

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