Global shares higher, dollar pinned by Fed rate cut bets
Updates at 1125 GMT
By Samuel Indyk and Rae Wee
LONDON, Sept 17 (Reuters) - European stocks were higher on Tuesday, while the U.S. dollar was pinned lower, a day before the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to begin an easing cycle that could see policymakers deliver an outsized rate cut.
Investors remain solelyfocused on Wednesday's Fed decision as chances havecrept up in the past week in favour of a 50-basis-point rate cut.
Futures markets are fully pricing in a quarter-point cut and now implya 65% chance that the Fed could ease rates by half a percentage point on Wednesday, up from around a 15% chance last week, after a slew of media reports revived the prospect of more aggressive easing.
The repricing by markets in favour of a deeper cut has given a boost to risky assets and sent the dollar and bond yields lower.
"It's back to the Fed put," said Eddie Kennedy, head of bespoke discretionary fund management at Marlborough Investment Management.
"Everyone's pricing in the soft landing and it feels like the Fed have been quite transparent that we're in a rate cutting environment. Generally stocks have done well post those sort of environments," Kennedy added.
The pan-European STOXX 600 .STOXX was up 0.6% to a two-week high. Germany's DAX .GDAXI, Britain's FTSE 100 .FTSE and France's CAC 40 .FCHI were also up about 0.6%.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 0.5%, while S&P 500 futures ESc1 and Nasdaq futures NQc1 were higher.
MSCI's gauge of global equities .MIWO00000PUS was up 0.1%.
Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, thinks the case for a 50 bps rate cut this week hinges in part on the idea that rates are well above most estimates of neutral.
"If officials judge that keeping policy in restrictive territory for too long creates unnecessary risk for the economy then there is no sense in dragging their feet," Shearingsaid.
"The problem is this is a high bar for a large rate cut, particularly at the start of the easing cycle. If nothing else, it creates the impression that central bankers have made a mistake and fallen behind the curve."
Markets have priced roughly 120 bps worth of Fedeasing by December.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield US2YT=RR, which typically reflects near-term rate expectations, was last at 3.5673%, having fallen to a two-year low of 3.528% in the previous session.
The benchmark 10-year yield US10YT=RR was little changed at 3.6176%. US/
RATE DECISIONS
The Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) also meet this week to discuss monetary policy, where both central banks are seen keeping rates on hold.
Expectations of less aggressive easing by the BoE in contrast to the Fed have in turn kept sterling GBP=D3 supported. It was last flatat $1.3209, but strayed not too far from August's peak of $1.3269, its strongest level since March 2022.
The BOJ meanwhile has raised interest rates twice this year but is also expected to hold off from action this week.
Still, the recent fall in U.S. Treasury yields and expectations that the BOJ will have to tighten policy further has supported the yen against the dollar.
The Japanese currency JPY=EBS was last at 140.66 per dollar, close to its strongest level in a year reached on Monday.
The stronger yen has stoked concerns about Japanese exporters' earnings and pulled down Tokyo's Nikkei .N225 by 1% on Tuesday as the market returned from a national holiday on Monday.
Elsewhere in Asia, China's stuttering economic recovery continued to weigh on sentiment, after data over the weekend showed the country's industrial output growth slowed to a five-month low in August, while retail sales and new home prices weakened further.
Still, concerns over faltering Chinese demand for oil were counteredby the ongoing impact of Hurricane Francine on output in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, keeping oil prices steadyon Tuesday.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 were little changed at$72.72 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures CLc1 were up 0.2% at $70.22 per barrel. O/R
Spot gold XAU= was down 0.3% at $2574.67 per ounce, having touched a new record high on Monday. GOL/
World FX rates YTD http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh
Global asset performance http://tmsnrt.rs/2yaDPgn
Asian stock markets https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
European shares rise before Fed, Wall St futures gain https://reut.rs/4eqyRQj
Reporting by Samuel Indyk, Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Sharon Singleton and Chizu Nomiyama
To read Reuters Markets and Finance news, click on https://www.reuters.com/finance/markets For the state of play of Asian stock markets please click on: 0#.INDEXA
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