Fundamentals, technicals offer support to NOK
June 18 (Reuters) -A key week for the crown with the Norges Bank's latest policy view due Thursday. Expectations of a hawkish hold coupled with potential for a bullish technical pattern playing out bode well for the NOK.
A pattern of falling tops on the weekly chart suggests EUR/NOK could go much lower. The cross peaked at 12.2030 in May 2023 and suffered a 9% pullback. A second peak of 12.0060 in November 2023 led to a 7.5% pullback and following an 11.8700 top in April there might be scope for a 5.5-6.0% drop, taking the cross to levels around 11.2100 before the upside is explored again.
Despite a marked improvement in the currency, Norwegian fundamentals continue to argue the case of higher-for-longer interest rates and the Norges Bank is likely to signal a slight up-lift in its rate path at this week's meeting.
Inflation is coming down, but not quickly enough and stronger wage growth and economic output could keep the CPI above target for some time and edge the rate path higher. Analysts are now expecting the central bank to signal a 50/50 chance of a rate cut in December with some not expecting a move until March 2025.
For more click on FXBUZ
EUR/NOK weekly candle chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/3RxQ1CR
(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
</body></html>āĻ¸āĻŽā§āĻĒāĻ°ā§āĻāĻŋāĻ¤ āĻ ā§āĻ¯āĻžāĻ¸ā§āĻ
āĻ¸āĻ°ā§āĻŦāĻļā§āĻˇ āĻāĻŦāĻ°
āĻĻāĻžāĻŦāĻŋāĻ¤ā§āĻ¯āĻžāĻ: XM Group āĻāĻ° āĻ¸āĻ¤ā§āĻ¤ā§āĻŦāĻžāĻā§āĻ˛ā§ āĻļā§āĻ§ā§āĻŽāĻžāĻ¤ā§āĻ° āĻāĻžāĻ°ā§āĻ¯āĻāĻ° āĻ¸ā§āĻŦāĻž āĻĒā§āĻ°āĻĻāĻžāĻ¨ āĻāĻ°ā§ āĻāĻŦāĻ āĻāĻŽāĻžāĻĻā§āĻ° āĻ āĻ¨āĻ˛āĻžāĻāĻ¨ āĻā§āĻ°ā§āĻĄāĻŋāĻ āĻ¸ā§āĻŦāĻŋāĻ§āĻž āĻā§āĻ˛ā§ āĻāĻĒāĻā§āĻ āĻāĻ°āĻ¤ā§ āĻĻā§ā§, āĻ¸ā§āĻāĻ¸āĻžāĻĨā§ āĻāĻāĻāĻ¨ āĻŦā§āĻ¯āĻā§āĻ¤āĻŋāĻā§ āĻāĻ¯āĻŧā§āĻŦāĻ¸āĻžāĻāĻā§ āĻŦāĻž āĻāĻ° āĻŽāĻžāĻ§ā§āĻ¯āĻŽā§ āĻāĻĒāĻ˛āĻŦā§āĻ§ āĻŦāĻŋāĻˇāĻ¯āĻŧāĻŦāĻ¸ā§āĻ¤ā§ āĻĻā§āĻāĻ¤ā§ āĻāĻŦāĻ/āĻ āĻĨāĻŦāĻž āĻŦā§āĻ¯āĻŦāĻšāĻžāĻ° āĻāĻ°āĻžāĻ° āĻ āĻ¨ā§āĻŽāĻ¤āĻŋ āĻĻā§ā§ āĻ¤āĻŦā§ āĻāĻāĻŋ āĻā§āĻ¨ āĻĒāĻ°āĻŋāĻŦāĻ°ā§āĻ¤āĻ¨ āĻŦāĻž āĻĒā§āĻ°āĻ¸āĻžāĻ°āĻŋāĻ¤ āĻāĻ°āĻžāĻ° āĻāĻĻā§āĻĻā§āĻļā§āĻ¯ā§ āĻ¨āĻ¯āĻŧ āĻŦāĻž āĻāĻŽāĻ¨ āĻā§āĻ¨ āĻāĻžāĻ°āĻŖā§āĻ āĻ¨āĻ¯āĻŧāĨ¤ āĻāĻ āĻ§āĻ°āĻ¨ā§āĻ° āĻĒā§āĻ°āĻŦā§āĻļ āĻāĻŦāĻ āĻŦā§āĻ¯āĻŦāĻšāĻžāĻ° āĻ¸āĻŦāĻ¸āĻŽāĻ¯āĻŧ āĻāĻŋāĻā§ āĻŦāĻŋāĻˇā§ā§āĻ° āĻ¸āĻžāĻĨā§ āĻā§āĻŋāĻ¤: (i) āĻļāĻ°ā§āĻ¤āĻžāĻŦāĻ˛ā§; (ii) āĻā§āĻāĻāĻŋ āĻ¸āĻ¤āĻ°ā§āĻāĻ¤āĻž; āĻāĻŦāĻ (iii) āĻ¸āĻŽā§āĻĒā§āĻ°ā§āĻŖ āĻĻāĻžāĻŦāĻŋāĻ¤ā§āĻ¯āĻžāĻāĨ¤ āĻāĻ āĻ§āĻ°āĻ¨ā§āĻ° āĻŦāĻŋāĻˇāĻ¯āĻŧāĻŦāĻ¸ā§āĻ¤ā§ āĻ¤āĻžāĻ āĻ¸āĻžāĻ§āĻžāĻ°āĻŖ āĻ¤āĻĨā§āĻ¯ āĻšāĻŋāĻ¸ā§āĻŦā§ āĻāĻžāĻĄāĻŧāĻž āĻāĻ° āĻ āĻ¨ā§āĻ¯ āĻā§āĻ¨ āĻāĻĻā§āĻĻā§āĻļā§āĻ¯ā§ āĻĒā§āĻ°āĻĻāĻžāĻ¨ āĻāĻ°āĻž āĻšāĻ¯āĻŧ āĻ¨āĻžāĨ¤ āĻ āĻ¨ā§āĻā§āĻ°āĻš āĻāĻ°ā§ āĻŦāĻŋāĻļā§āĻˇāĻāĻžāĻŦā§ āĻ¸āĻā§āĻ¤āĻ¨ āĻĨāĻžāĻā§āĻ¨ āĻ¯ā§, āĻāĻŽāĻžāĻĻā§āĻ° āĻ āĻ¨āĻ˛āĻžāĻāĻ¨ āĻā§āĻ°ā§āĻĄāĻŋāĻ āĻ¸ā§āĻŦāĻŋāĻ§āĻžāĻ° āĻŦāĻŋāĻˇāĻ¯āĻŧāĻŦāĻ¸ā§āĻ¤ā§āĻā§ā§āĻ˛ā§ āĻāĻ°ā§āĻĨāĻŋāĻ āĻŦāĻžāĻāĻžāĻ°ā§ āĻā§āĻ¨ā§ āĻ˛ā§āĻ¨āĻĻā§āĻ¨ āĻāĻ°āĻžāĻ° āĻāĻ¨ā§āĻ¯ āĻ āĻ¨ā§āĻ°ā§āĻ§ āĻŦāĻž āĻĒā§āĻ°āĻ¸ā§āĻ¤āĻžāĻŦ āĻ¨āĻ¯āĻŧāĨ¤ āĻāĻžāĻ°āĻŖ āĻ¯ā§āĻā§āĻ¨ā§ āĻāĻ°ā§āĻĨāĻŋāĻ āĻŦāĻžāĻāĻžāĻ°ā§ āĻā§āĻ°ā§āĻĄāĻŋāĻ āĻāĻ°āĻ˛ā§ āĻāĻĒāĻ¨āĻžāĻ° āĻŽā§āĻ˛āĻ§āĻ¨ā§āĻ° āĻ¸āĻžāĻĨā§ āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻ˛ā§āĻ˛ā§āĻāĻ¯ā§āĻā§āĻ¯ āĻā§āĻāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻĄāĻŧāĻŋāĻ¤ āĻĨāĻžāĻāĻŦā§āĨ¤
āĻāĻŽāĻžāĻĻā§āĻ° āĻ āĻ¨āĻ˛āĻžāĻāĻ¨ āĻā§āĻ°ā§āĻĄāĻŋāĻ āĻ¸ā§āĻŦāĻŋāĻ§āĻžāĻ¯āĻŧ āĻĒā§āĻ°āĻāĻžāĻļāĻŋāĻ¤ āĻ¸āĻāĻ˛ āĻŦāĻŋāĻˇā§āĻŦāĻ¸ā§āĻ¤ā§ āĻļā§āĻ§ā§āĻŽāĻžāĻ¤ā§āĻ° āĻļāĻŋāĻā§āĻˇāĻžāĻāĻ¤/āĻ¤āĻĨā§āĻ¯āĻŽā§āĻ˛āĻ āĻāĻĻā§āĻĻā§āĻļā§āĻ¯ā§ āĻ¤ā§āĻ°āĻŋ āĻāĻ°āĻž āĻšāĻ¯āĻŧā§āĻ āĻāĻŦāĻ āĻāĻ¤ā§ āĻāĻ°ā§āĻĨāĻŋāĻ, āĻŦāĻŋāĻ¨āĻŋāĻ¯āĻŧā§āĻ āĻāĻ° āĻŦāĻž āĻā§āĻ°ā§āĻĄāĻŋāĻ āĻĒāĻ°āĻžāĻŽāĻ°ā§āĻļ āĻāĻŦāĻ āĻ¸ā§āĻĒāĻžāĻ°āĻŋāĻļ āĻ§āĻžāĻ°āĻŖ āĻāĻ°āĻž āĻāĻāĻŋāĻ¤ āĻ¨āĻ¯āĻŧ - āĻāĻŽāĻžāĻĻā§āĻ° āĻā§āĻ°ā§āĻĄāĻŋāĻ āĻŽā§āĻ˛ā§āĻ¯ā§āĻ° āĻāĻāĻāĻŋ āĻ°ā§āĻāĻ°ā§āĻĄ; āĻ āĻĨāĻŦāĻž āĻā§āĻ¨ā§ āĻāĻ°ā§āĻĨāĻŋāĻ āĻāĻĒāĻāĻ°āĻŖā§ āĻ˛ā§āĻ¨āĻĻā§āĻ¨ā§āĻ° āĻĒā§āĻ°āĻ¸ā§āĻ¤āĻžāĻŦ, āĻŦāĻž āĻ āĻ¨ā§āĻ°ā§āĻ§; āĻ āĻĨāĻŦāĻž āĻāĻĒāĻ¨āĻžāĻ° āĻāĻžāĻā§ āĻ āĻ¯āĻžāĻāĻŋāĻ¤ āĻāĻ°ā§āĻĨāĻŋāĻ āĻĒā§āĻ°āĻāĻžāĻ° āĻšāĻŋāĻ¸ā§āĻŦā§ āĻāĻāĻŋāĻā§ āĻ§āĻžāĻ°āĻŖ āĻāĻ°āĻž āĻāĻāĻŋāĻ¤ āĻ¨āĻ¯āĻŧāĨ¤
āĻā§āĻ¨ āĻ¤ā§āĻ¤ā§āĻ¯āĻŧ āĻĒāĻā§āĻˇā§āĻ° āĻŦāĻŋāĻˇā§āĻŦāĻ¸ā§āĻ¤ā§, āĻĒāĻžāĻļāĻžāĻĒāĻžāĻļāĻŋ XM āĻĻā§āĻŦāĻžāĻ°āĻž āĻĒā§āĻ°āĻ¸ā§āĻ¤ā§āĻ¤ āĻŦāĻŋāĻˇā§ āĻŦāĻ¸ā§āĻ¤ā§ āĻ¯ā§āĻŽāĻ¨ āĻŽāĻ¤āĻžāĻŽāĻ¤, āĻ¸āĻāĻŦāĻžāĻĻ, āĻāĻŦā§āĻˇāĻŖāĻž, āĻŦāĻŋāĻļā§āĻ˛ā§āĻˇāĻŖ, āĻĻāĻžāĻŽ, āĻ āĻ¨ā§āĻ¯āĻžāĻ¨ā§āĻ¯ āĻ¤āĻĨā§āĻ¯ āĻŦāĻž āĻāĻ āĻāĻ¯āĻŧā§āĻŦāĻ¸āĻžāĻāĻā§ āĻĨāĻžāĻāĻž āĻ¤ā§āĻ¤ā§āĻ¯āĻŧ āĻĒāĻā§āĻˇā§āĻ° āĻ¸āĻžāĻāĻā§āĻ° āĻ˛āĻŋāĻāĻ āĻā§āĻ˛ā§ "āĻ¯ā§āĻŽāĻ¨-āĻ°āĻ¯āĻŧā§āĻā§" āĻāĻŋāĻ¤ā§āĻ¤āĻŋāĻ¤ā§ āĻ¸āĻ°āĻŦāĻ°āĻžāĻš āĻāĻ°āĻž āĻšāĻ¯āĻŧ āĻ¸āĻžāĻ§āĻžāĻ°āĻŖ āĻŽāĻžāĻ°ā§āĻā§āĻā§āĻ° āĻāĻžāĻˇā§āĻ¯ āĻšāĻŋāĻ¸ā§āĻŦā§ āĻāĻŦāĻ āĻŦāĻŋāĻ¨āĻŋāĻ¯āĻŧā§āĻā§āĻ° āĻĒāĻ°āĻžāĻŽāĻ°ā§āĻļ āĻāĻ āĻ¨ āĻāĻ°āĻŦā§āĻ¨ āĻ¨āĻžāĨ¤ āĻ¯ā§āĻā§āĻ¨ā§ āĻŦāĻŋāĻˇāĻ¯āĻŧāĻŦāĻ¸ā§āĻ¤ā§āĻā§ āĻŦāĻŋāĻ¨āĻŋāĻ¯āĻŧā§āĻ āĻāĻŦā§āĻˇāĻŖāĻž āĻšāĻŋāĻ¸ā§āĻŦā§ āĻŦā§āĻāĻžāĻ¨ā§ āĻšāĻ˛ā§, āĻāĻĒāĻ¨āĻžāĻā§ āĻ āĻŦāĻļā§āĻ¯āĻ āĻŽāĻ¨ā§ āĻ°āĻžāĻāĻ¤ā§ āĻšāĻŦā§ āĻāĻŦāĻ āĻ¸ā§āĻŦā§āĻāĻžāĻ° āĻāĻ°āĻ¤ā§ āĻšāĻŦā§ āĻ¯ā§ āĻŦāĻŋāĻˇāĻ¯āĻŧāĻŦāĻ¸ā§āĻ¤ā§āĻāĻŋ āĻŦāĻŋāĻ¨āĻŋāĻ¯āĻŧā§āĻ āĻāĻŦā§āĻˇāĻŖāĻžāĻ° āĻ¸ā§āĻŦāĻžāĻ§ā§āĻ¨āĻ¤āĻžāĻ° āĻĒā§āĻ°āĻāĻžāĻ°ā§āĻ° āĻāĻ¨ā§āĻ¯ āĻĄāĻŋāĻāĻžāĻāĻ¨ āĻāĻ°āĻž āĻāĻāĻ¨āĻŋ āĻĒā§āĻ°āĻ¯āĻŧā§āĻāĻ¨ā§āĻ¯āĻŧāĻ¤āĻž āĻ āĻ¨ā§āĻ¸āĻžāĻ°ā§ āĻ¤ā§āĻ°āĻŋ āĻāĻ°āĻž āĻšāĻ¯āĻŧāĻ¨āĻŋ āĻāĻŦāĻ āĻāĻāĻŋ āĻŦāĻŋāĻŦā§āĻāĻ¨āĻž āĻāĻ°āĻž āĻšāĻŦā§ āĻ¨āĻž āĻĒā§āĻ°āĻžāĻ¸āĻā§āĻāĻŋāĻ āĻāĻāĻ¨ āĻ āĻĒā§āĻ°āĻŦāĻŋāĻ§āĻžāĻ¨ā§āĻ° āĻ āĻ§ā§āĻ¨ā§ āĻŦāĻŋāĻĒāĻŖāĻ¨ āĻ¯ā§āĻāĻžāĻ¯ā§āĻ āĻšāĻŋāĻ¸ā§āĻŦā§āĨ¤ āĻ āĻ¨ā§āĻā§āĻ°āĻš āĻāĻ°ā§ āĻ¨āĻŋāĻļā§āĻāĻŋāĻ¤ āĻāĻ°ā§āĻ¨ āĻ¯ā§ āĻāĻĒāĻ¨āĻŋ āĻ -āĻ¸ā§āĻŦāĻžāĻ§ā§āĻ¨ āĻŦāĻŋāĻ¨āĻŋāĻ¯āĻŧā§āĻ āĻ¸āĻāĻā§āĻ°āĻžāĻ¨ā§āĻ¤ āĻāĻŽāĻžāĻĻā§āĻ° āĻŦāĻŋāĻā§āĻāĻĒā§āĻ¤āĻŋ āĻĒāĻĄāĻŧā§āĻā§āĻ¨ āĻāĻŦāĻ āĻŦā§āĻā§āĻā§āĻ¨āĨ¤ āĻĒā§āĻ°ā§āĻŦā§āĻā§āĻ¤ āĻ¤āĻĨā§āĻ¯ āĻ¸āĻŽā§āĻĒāĻ°ā§āĻāĻŋāĻ¤ āĻāĻŦā§āĻˇāĻŖāĻž āĻāĻŦāĻ āĻā§āĻāĻāĻŋ āĻ¸āĻ¤āĻ°ā§āĻāĻ¤āĻž, āĻ¯āĻž āĻāĻāĻžāĻ¨ āĻĨā§āĻā§ āĻĒā§āĻ°āĻŦā§āĻļ āĻāĻ°āĻž āĻ¯ā§āĻ¤ā§ āĻĒāĻžāĻ°ā§āĨ¤