Commodities

Technical Analysis – WTI futures extend consolidation; upside risks remain

Posted on January 26, 2021 at 12:28 pm GMT

Anthony Charalambous, XM Investment Research Desk

WTI oil futures are pushing slightly higher within a sideways market that has progressed after oil touched a near 11-month high of 53.92. The easing in the incline of the 50-period simple moving average (SMA) and the directionless Ichimoku lines are further feeding the range-bound price format. However, the soaring 100- and 200-period SMAs are preserving the positive bias.

Furthermore, the short-term oscillators, although currently feeble, also seem to favour the upside. The MACD, marginally above its signal line, is peeking above the zero threshold, while the RSI is trying to maintain its push above the 50 level. The stochastic oscillator is floating beneath the 80 overbought barrier, suggesting some stalling in price improvements.

If positive traction is maintained off the recent footholds on the 100-period SMA and the cloud’s lower band, the price could rise to challenge the multiple tops near the latest peak of 53.92. Successfully stepping over these obstacles, the price may target the resistance band of 54.34-54.75, which also includes the crucial 54.62 peak from back in February 2020. Breaching this boundary may accelerate the climb in the commodity, catapulting the price towards the 56.00 hurdle.

Alternatively, if sellers steer the price below the 50-period SMA at 52.77 and the cloud, early support may develop at the 100-period SMA at 51.87 and the 51.40 neighbouring level. The latter happens to be the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up leg from 47.29 until 53.92. A deeper pullback past the 51.40 low may then challenge the support belt from the 61.8% Fibo of 49.82 until the 49.51 trough, which also encapsulates the 200-period SMA.

Overall, despite the latest stalling in price, the short-term bias remains relatively bullish above the SMAs and the 51.40 mark.

oil

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