Blog

Technical Analysis – US oil futures hold above cloud; outlook neutral

• A- A A+

US oil futures held within its four-day trading range after moving above the Ichimoku cloud following the strong rally seen on October 28. RSI remains neutral just above 50 but the stochastics are in overbought territory, indicating the current momentum is unlikely to hold in the near term.

Prices have found support from the 50-day moving average, while the kijun-sen line is providing resistance at 46.74. In the broader picture, prices would need to challenge the 50% of the Fibonacci retracement level of the June-August downleg at 49.62. A rise above this level would strengthen the current neutral outlook to a more bullish one. But for a more decisive shift to bullish territory, a break above the 200-day moving average is needed.

To the downside, support comes from the bottom of the cloud at 44.69. A move below the cloud would shift the bias to negative.