USDJPY

BoJ: still no normalization in sight, risk flows crucial for yen – Forex News Preview

Posted on December 19, 2018 at 10:15 am GMT

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will conclude its latest policy meeting during the Asian session on Thursday. No change in its massive stimulus program is expected, and considering that inflation remains subdued, any hints of future normalization are unlikely too. Hence, the yen probably won’t respond much, and may instead continue to be driven mainly by shifts in global risk appetite. Under its current framework of “QQE with yield-curve control”, the BoJ has pledged to keep the yields on longer-dated [..]

European Open Preview – Fed unlikely to be as dovish as market pricing implies

Posted on December 19, 2018 at 8:42 am GMT

The spotlight today is on the Fed’s decision; markets seem positioned for an extremely “dovish hike”, which poses an upside risk for the dollar The BoJ will also meet, though that gathering may be less exciting Meanwhile, oil prices resumed their broader collapse Fed may strike a less dovish tone than investors anticipate The main event today will be the Fed’s policy decision at 1900 GMT, which will be followed by a press conference from Chair Powell. A quarter-point rate increase [..]

Will the Fed be less dovish than markets expect? – Forex News Preview

Posted on December 18, 2018 at 1:00 pm GMT

The Fed will announce its policy decision on Wednesday, at 1900 GMT. Markets seem positioned for a “dovish hike”, where the Fed raises rates but lowers its rate-path forecasts and strikes a cautious tone. However, considering just how dovish market pricing for 2019 is, the risks surrounding the dollar seem to be asymmetric, and skewed to the upside. In the past few weeks, investors have meaningfully pared back their bets for Fed rate hikes in 2019. Yet, the implied probability [..]

European Open Preview – Dollar softer on bets volatility will stay Fed’s hand

Posted on December 18, 2018 at 8:48 am GMT

Risk sentiment in dire straits; US stocks close at fresh lows, yen shines Dollar drops as Fed rate-hike expectations fade even further Kiwi buoyant after New Zealand’s business sentiment recovers S&P 500 closes at 14-month low as fear dominates greed Risk sentiment remained sour to start the week, in the absence of any clear catalyst, other than a flurry of headlines suggesting a US government shutdown may be on the cards this holiday season. The benchmark S&P 500 index fell [..]

European Open Preview – US dollar index near highs as Fed week begins

Posted on December 17, 2018 at 8:14 am GMT

US dollar not far from highs as Fed poised to hike later in the week Risk sentiment under pressure from signs of global slowdown Volatile sterling in wait-and-see mode on possible Brexit holiday pause US dollar keeps most of its gains on robust retail sales The US dollar was helped by a buoyant November retail sales report on Friday, which were in contrast to weaker-than-expected data and business surveys out of Europe and China. A strong consumer should help the [..]

Week Ahead – Fed decides as pressure grows to pause rate hikes; BoE and BoJ meet too

Posted on December 14, 2018 at 1:27 pm GMT

The Federal Reserve’s policy meeting will be the main attraction next week as speculation grows the US central bank could signal slowing down the pace of rate hikes. Policy meetings by the Bank of England and Bank of Japan are not expected to draw as much attention. Instead, economic data will be grabbing the headlines for the rest of the week as inflation, retail sales and GDP figures are due for a number of major markets, including, Canada, Japan, the [..]

European Open Preview – Euro softens as ECB ends QE, but turns cautious

Posted on December 14, 2018 at 8:50 am GMT

Euro ticks down as ECB ends QE, but downgrades balance of risks Aussie and kiwi fall sharply after key Chinese data disappoint EU refuses to renegotiate Brexit deal; sterling rallies may remain short-lived US retail sales data due out today Euro inches lower despite Draghi trying his best not to seem dovish The European Central Bank (ECB) officially announced the end of its crisis-era QE program yesterday, as expected. The Bank revised down its growth and inflation forecasts, though that [..]

US retail sales in focus as Fed meeting comes into view – Forex News Preview

Posted on December 13, 2018 at 3:00 pm GMT

The US will see the release of its latest retail sales figures on Friday, at 1330 GMT. This will be the final tier-one data set ahead of the Fed’s highly anticipated meeting next week, so it may prove especially important for the dollar. Retail sales are expected to have slowed to 0.2% m/m in November, from 0.8% previously. Likewise, the core print that excludes automobile sales is expected to rise by 0.2%, after clocking in at 0.7% in October. Yet, [..]

European Open Preview – Pound advances as May survives; ECB meeting eyed

Posted on December 13, 2018 at 8:39 am GMT

Sterling advances as PM May survives leadership contest, but sustained rally unlikely ECB meets today; Draghi’s tone will be crucial for the euro SNB meets as well, likely to maintain a dovish stance Meanwhile, reports China may open its economy boost risk sentiment Pound soars as May survives, but odds of a sustained rally slim Sterling surged on Wednesday, as it became increasingly clear throughout the session that PM May would survive the no-confidence motion, amid a plethora of Tory [..]

Technical Analysis – USDJPY returns above rising trend line and SMAs; bullish outlook holds

Posted on December 13, 2018 at 7:31 am GMT

USDJPY has been facing buying interest after the rebound on the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 104.60 to 114.55, around the 112.30 support. The pair remains above the long-term ascending trend line, however, the technical indicators are moving with weak momentum. The RSI is pointing marginally up in the bullish zone, while the MACD oscillator is flattening near the trigger and zero lines in the short-term. As the price advances above the 20- and 40-simple moving averages (SMAs), the expectation [..]

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