FX Daily Outlook| 02-11-16
Posted on November 2, 2016 at 10:30 am GMT[..]
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Technical Analysis – USDCHF turns bearish after break below 200-day moving average
Posted on November 2, 2016 at 8:08 am GMTUSDCHF extends its decline from parity and the near-term outlook has turned very bearish after breaking below the 200-day moving average. After a strong rally from the September 29 low of 0.9638, USDCHF peaked near 1.0000 on October 25 before reversing back down. Following several tests of support at 0.9913 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the 0.9638 – 1.0000 upleg), prices fell to find support at the 38.2% Fibonacci at 0.9860. A 170-point drop on Tuesday led to the market retracing [..]
Technical Analysis – USDCHF downside risk below 200-dma
Posted on March 18, 2016 at 8:29 am GMTUSDCHF broke below the 200-day moving average on Thursday, which was acting as support. This break has weakened the underlying bullish market structure. The pair had a daily close below the key 0.9700, which is also a 50% Fibonacci level of the upleg from 0.9077 to 1.0326 (May to November 2015 rise). This is a critical level and now acts as a resistance level for upside moves. RSI is negative in bearish territory below 50, which highlights the downside bias. [..]
Technical Analysis – USDCHF oversold after sharp decline
Posted on February 12, 2016 at 8:13 am GMTUSDCHF broke out of the ascending channel after rising within it for over a month (on the daily chart). At the beginning of February prices fell below the lower channel support line and this triggered a sharp decline to a 4-month low of 0.9659. This is the lowest since October 2015. Prices are now at a critical support level and are testing the 200-day moving average around 0.9720. Meanwhile, there is also important support at 0.9700 at the 50% Fibonacci [..]
Technical Analysis – USDCHF has scope for push higher
Posted on December 17, 2014 at 8:30 am GMTUSDCHF has found support at the top of the Ichimoku cloud, giving hope for the bulls. The overall market structure is bullish as the pair has been making higher peaks and higher troughs since March – when it bounced off a 3-year low of 0.8698. After correcting lower from a high of 0.9816 to touch a low of 0.9551, the pair bounced back and has scope to test the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the move from 0.9816 to 0.9551. To [..]
Technical Analysis – USDCHF keeps bullish momentum, hits 19-month high
Posted on December 9, 2014 at 7:12 am GMTUSDCHF has been in an uptrend since moving off 3-year lows in March. The pair rose from 0.8698 to reach a high of 0.9816 on Monday, a new 1 ½ year high. The May 22nd high of 0.9837 now comes into sight as the next target. After retracing all of the decline that occurred in October from 0.9685 to 0.9360, the upside momentum took hold and RSI has remained in bullish territory since then. The tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines are [..]
Technical Analysis – USDCHF bulls struggling
Posted on October 20, 2014 at 7:50 am GMTUSDCHF has paused its decline from the October 6 high of 0.9685 but is at risk for a further decline back towards the key 0.9300 level. The tenkan-sen line has just crossed below the kijun-sen line, which is a bearish signal. RSI has been falling since the October 6 high although is resting on the 50 line currently. MACD has turned back down, indicating bearishness. Prices are hovering at 0.9454 – which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the [..]
Technical Analysis – USDCHF pauses uptrend after reaching overbought conditions
Posted on October 10, 2014 at 7:20 am GMTUSDCHF peaked at 0.9685 on Monday, a 15-month high. This proved to be a strong resistance level and upside momentum faded after the market reached extreme overbought conditions as shown by the RSI and stochastic indicators on the daily chart. The market has only retraced barely 23.6% of the 0.8702 – 0.9685 upleg. A deeper correction lower towards the key level of 0.9300 is possible before any rebound. (This support area also includes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level). The underlying [..]
Technical Analysis – USDCHF hovers at 1-year high
Posted on September 17, 2014 at 6:55 am GMTUSDCHF is hovering near 1-year highs and currently pivoting around 0.9343, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.9749 – 0.8698 downleg. The short-term technical structure is positive – tenkan-sen and kijun-sen are positively aligned and momentum oscillators are in bullish territory (RSI and MACD). A break of the September 10 high of 0.9394 will accelerate a move towards the September 5 high of 0.9454. Near-term support is seen at 0.9286 (September 5 low). [..]
Technical Analysis – USDCHF bullish at upper Bollinger Band
Posted on August 21, 2014 at 7:48 am GMTUSDCHF has closed back above the upper Bollinger Band and reached a new 8-month high of 0.9144. Daily momentum remains positive, with RSI and MACD both in bullish territory. The technicals highlight the continued upside potential. USDCHF has scope to target the January 19 high of 0.9155. Support is seen at 0.9014, the August 15 low and lower Bollinger Band. A break below the 200-day moving average would threaten the short-term bullish bias. [..]
