FX Daily Outlook | 24-11-16
Posted on November 24, 2016 at 11:08 am GMT[..]
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A solid gain in US jobs in October was unable to lift the US dollar in today’s European session as markets remain gripped by the American presidential race as polling day draws nearer. Uncertainty over the outcome of the US election next Tuesday kept most major currencies within their recent trading range despite a relatively a busy day for economic data, the highlight of which was the non-farm payrolls report. US non-farm payrolls rose by 161k in October, slightly below [..]
The British pound was one of the best performing currencies in Thursday’s European session as a UK High Court ruled the government could not trigger Article 50 without Parliament’s permission. The US dollar meanwhile bounced off from 4-week lows against the yen as political worries eased slightly, but its gains were capped from weak US data. A narrowing lead for Hillary Clinton in the polls continued to pressure the dollar today but the greenback managed to pare some of its [..]
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USDCAD daily has managed to break out of the 5-month old range of 1.27-1.33 during the previous sessions, as it tested 1.34 by trading up to 1.3396 (Monday’s high and the highest since March). The pair is looking positive as it is trading above the 200-day average (1.3134) and the Relative Strength Index is also bullish at 60. Performing a Fibonacci analysis on the down move from 1.4690 (January high) to 1.2460 (March low), the pair is currently around the [..]
The coming week looks set to be a busier one in terms of data but the European Central Bank’s meeting may take most of the attention given the recent rumours of QE tapering. UK inflation and retail sales figures may provide some support to the battered pound, while Chinese GDP data will also come in focus. It will be a lighter week for the US economic calendar, which will be dominated by housing data. Markets look at ECB for QE [..]
AUDUSD briefly pierced the 77 level today and traded at its highest since September 8. A few attempts to break through 77 had failed recently but OPEC’s deal to cut output boosted commodity currencies, revitalized risk appetite and helped the pair cross above that level. Prices quickly fell back from their high of 0.7709 as there was profit-taking and the pair was close to being overbought. The next target on the upside is the 0.7731 level which was reached in early September. If that [..]
The main news item in today’s European session was the release of the Markit PMI business surveys for a number of developed countries. The Eurozone PMI beat expectations on the composite level, as it fell to only 52.9 compared to 52.5 expected by economists. The previous month’s figure was 53.1. Therefore it appeared that Brexit had only a modest negative effect on Eurozone businesses. In Germany, services’ PMI was much stronger-than-expected, which showed solid domestic demand. Manufacturing did less well [..]
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The US dollar remained not too far from yesterday’s lows when it slid following reports that the Bank of Japan governor has ruled out helicopter money to ease Japan’s economic woes. Speculation that the Bank of Japan would engage in helicopter money had sent the yen lower in recent days and yesterday’s denial dampened expectations of any drastic measures being announced at the Bank’s policy meeting next week. The news also put a halt to the risk rally that had [..]
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